- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
Rising China, troubled America, crouching Australia
Posted By Graeme Dobell on February 14, 2014 @ 06:00
- China’s power could force Australia into a ‘crouching mode—still independent, but unable to be highly assertive against the dominant power to its north.’
- China’s new president, Xi Jinping, is set to be the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping. (See also Willy Lam’s fine piece on Xi’s ‘extensive and entrenched power’.)
- Canberra must prepare for the high risk that, in 10 to 15 years, the US will not be able to guarantee Australia’s security.
- Australia’s current debate is over the choices between the US and China; the future might be one in which Australia chooses India instead of China
The US won’t be able to remain a great military power without a sustainable fiscal policy that restrains health care spending. Doctors and health insurance companies will determine whether America continues to be the world’s leading military power, not strategists in the Pentagon, and the most important predictor of the global balance of power in 2030 will be America’s health care inflation rate. There’s been a sharp decline in health care inflation during the past four years, but there’s no consensus that it will be sustainable. Australia must therefore prepare contingency plans for the risk that the US will become increasingly less able to guarantee its security.
Article printed from The Strategist: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au
URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/rising-china-troubled-america-crouching-australia/
[1] Image: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/02/Picture-14.png
[2] carried out the exercise: http://www.thehindu.com/news/international/new-indian-ocean-exercise-shows-reach-of-chinas-navy/article5657362.ece
[3] scrambled: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/raaf-scrambles-plane-to-observe-chinese-naval-exercise-20140212-32ief.html
[4] argue that China's going Indo-Pacific: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/opinion/sea-change-of-china-power/story-e6frgd0x-1226822951219
[5] David Hale’s ASPI paper: https://www.aspi.org.au/publications/chinas-new-dream-how-will-australia-and-the-world-cope-with-the-re-emergence-of-china-as-a-great-power
[6] Willy Lam’s fine piece: http://www.jamestown.org/programs/chinabrief/single/?tx_ttnews%5btt_news%5d=41933&tx_ttnews%5bbackPid%5d=25&cHash=c97424fda6de2f64e09ee0e2456c6bb3#.UvwW9ftkrg2
[7] here's: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sF_QxZBFE_k&list=UUcb6evdaNI92eps3eZXUCvg&feature=c4-overview
[8] ASPI's YouTube channel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qa3TJn3Zsjk