The Australian Defence Force needs to expand and accelerate acquisition of autonomous equipment to achieve a rapid increase in force-structure numbers and capability. This is necessary to reinforce Australia’s strategy of deterrence by denial and to be ready to protect sea lanes of communication as the country faces an increasingly powerful and assertive China.
In a new ASPI report, I argue that the ADF and defence industry should ensure rapid and continuous adaptation and modernisation of autonomous systems. This would allow them to make the most of what Biden administration defence official Michael Horowitz referred to as ‘the age of precise mass.’
The report acknowledges that Australian defence policy is moving in the right direction in recognising the importance of autonomous systems. This was highlighted in the 2023 Defence Strategic Review, the 2024 National Defence Strategy (NDS) and Integrated Investment Program (IIP) spending plan, as well as in the Defence Industry Development Strategy (DIDS).
However, Australia can’t maximise the benefits of autonomous systems if it maintains its overly cautious attitude to experimentation and focuses on acquiring only limited numbers of higher-end uncrewed systems. If it continues this approach, it may miss opportunities to change policies managing capability development, acquisition, sustainment and evolution to encourage development of autonomous systems.
Defence should seek a high-low mix of autonomous capabilities for all three services, complementing crewed platforms and emerging higher-end uncrewed systems, such as Boeing Defence Australia’s MQ-28A Ghost Bat collaborative combat aircraft (CCA, a fighter-like drone) for the Royal Australian Air Force and Anduril’s Ghost Shark extra-large autonomous underwater vehicle (XL-AUV) for the Royal Australian Navy.
This will require a willingness to change how capabilities are acquired, prioritising greater speed and larger numbers. ‘Low cost, high volume, rapid acquisition’ must be Defence’s key principle to successfully make the most of autonomous systems.
Current policy—as suggested in the 2024 NDS and DIDS and in older joint and single-service autonomous-systems concepts—embraces continuous modernisation. This needs to be implemented at scale through the establishment of an ecosystem incorporating the ADF, Department of Defence and Australia’s defence industry, as shown below. This would ensure rapid development, acquisition and modernisation of large numbers of autonomous capabilities. The goal should be accelerating processes to acquire autonomous capabilities in greater mass (numbers) and at greater speed, and, at the same time, continuously evolve those capabilities in ever shorter innovation loops, both for a specific platform, and more broadly for capability areas, with those loops driven by operational experience.
The example of Ukraine’s Brave1 innovation hub should be instructive in this regard. While Australia’s operational environment is very different from Ukraine’s, Brave1’s rapid innovation cycle could be applied to meet Australia’s needs and ensure that the ADF can keep up with adversary military capabilities and with broader technological change.
There is a clear need to update current policy guidance on autonomous systems. The current ADF Joint Concept for Robotic and Autonomous Systems dates to 2020, and the RAN’s and Australian Army’s autonomous vision documents date to 2020 and 2022, respectively. There needs to be a new ADF Joint Concept for Autonomous Systems that takes in current thinking and recent technological innovation, incorporating perspectives not just from Defence and the ADF but also from defence industry, the Defence Science and Technology Group, the Advanced Strategic Capabilities Accelerator and even higher education institutions.
That new joint concept should be updated biennially to align with future editions of the NDS and IIP. And autonomous systems should be given greater prominence in those future documents, to ensure they move beyond being considered niche or next generation systems.
Autonomous systems and AI are technology priority areas within AUKUS Pillar Two. Development of these systems under the AUKUS umbrella could support the introduction of new uncrewed systems, as well as faster acquisition, sustainment and modernisation of capabilities.
Although, as the ASPI report reiterates, platforms are merely the effectors of the broader ecosystem. That ecosystem supports the platforms’ rapid and continuous design, acquisition, sustainment and modernisation, in a manner similar to the formerly planned Digital Century Series concept for development of future air power.
AUKUS Pillar Two needs to recognise that development, acquisition, sustainment and modernisation are as important as the actual capability itself.
Moving beyond ecosystems and capability acquisition, the defensive battle cannot lag the offensive battle, and Australia needs greater investment in counter-drone capabilities. Defence should pay for systems that offer low cost per shot, such as directed-energy weapons and electromagnetic warfare, so it can, as UNSW academic Oleksandra Molloy noted, ‘flip the economics’ of defending against adversary drones. In particular, greater investment in EW is important. Indeed, retired General Mick Ryan noted that ‘drones and EW have become co-evolutionary partners during the war [in Ukraine], and they comprise a complementary capability at many levels.’
Finally, it’s important for Defence to approach the use of autonomous systems in a bold manner. Concepts such as a drone wall—inspired by Ukraine’s use of such a tactic—could be applied to Australia’s unique operational circumstances, strengthening the ADF’s ability to defend our northern air and maritime approaches. This would also take greater advantage of increased mass and resilience, while reducing risk to the limited numbers of crewed platforms. Such an approach—and similar concepts centred around the use of autonomous systems in other domains for strike and reconnaissance —could transform how the ADF fights. But to realise such a capability, it’s time for Defence to go big and go fast with autonomous warfare.