It’s been almost 30 years since I arrived in Tehran for work at the Australian embassy. I was the first female policy officer from the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade posted there. One of only three female foreign diplomats in the country then, I reported on domestic political developments, regional security and human rights.
It was the end of the pragmatist former revolutionary leader Hashemi Rafsanjani’s era and the start of moderate cleric Mohammed Khatami’s first term. Though still tightly controlled by the powerful Guardian Council who screened out political opponents, Khatami’s election rallied Iran’s people around an expectation of liberalisation and reform and brought hope for a better, more open future. All sorts of new political forces sprung up during this ‘Tehran Spring’, along with hopes of a lessening of tensions and Iran’s international isolation.
Australia, like other countries, also hoped this might make it easier to do business with Iran, a key Middle East market, especially for wheat and other primary products. In 1999, Australia’s deputy prime minister and minister for trade, Tim Fischer, visited Iran. Later, Australia and Iran even held a human rights dialogue, attended by officials and the countries’ human rights commissions.
But it was not to be. The conservative establishment targeted new political movements, leading to the student protests of 1999. Repression continued, and people eventually become hopeless and disillusioned. In 2005, Khatami was succeeded by the hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, whose disputed re-election in 2009 gave rise to widespread protests known as the Green Movement. Anti-government demonstrations in 2017 and 2018 left dozens killed. Then, in 2022, protests by women over Islamic dress following the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini spilled over into broader society, resulting in over 500 deaths and thousands of arrests.
Internationally, Iran became part of the ‘axis of evil’, and its uranium enrichment activities led to UN inspections of nuclear facilities and sanctions over possible weapons programs.
The Islamic Revolution, barely 20 years old at the time of my posting, was a traumatic event in Iran’s history. It transformed the country. It affected every aspect of people’s lives: it took away their personal liberties, and dictated their behaviour and even dress, enforced by real punishment.
The revolution also re-organised society and the economy. The old governing classes were removed from power and replaced with supporters of the regime, mainly poor, traditional families. The modernising policies of the shah, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, had robbed them of their identity, but the new system that prioritised religious values put them at the centre. To maintain support, the regime spent on helping the rural poor, from infrastructure development to free education and civil service jobs, using Iran’s vast resource wealth. Oil revenue also funded the eight-year-long war with Iraq, which consolidated the regime’s rule by uniting supporters and opponents against an external enemy.
Today, little of that remains. Revolutionary ideology long ago lost its appeal. Iran’s expanded middle class—urban, modern, highly literate and connected to the world through technology—came to oppose the regime’s hard-line policies. People wanted the government to govern effectively and deliver prosperity, not police citizens’ private lives. And although the leader, the revolutionary courts and guards remain in place, Iran’s elected governments have been more pragmatic, influenced by international pressure and public opinion.
But change has been slow. Sanctions impeded, but did not halt, economic progress, with per capita incomes continuing to rise alongside increased oil prices. Pro-democracy movements were thwarted, activists—among them former revolutionaries—were exiled or imprisoned, while ordinary Iranians continued to persevere in their hopes of transforming their own society from within.
In this context, the Israeli and US strikes in June could be a gamechanger. They may lead Iran to abandon convincingly its nuclear ambitions, a long-standing international goal; but they could also accelerate the production of nuclear weapons in a bid to ensure security and regime survival. In reality, Iran has few viable options. It does not have the capacity to wage war, its regional proxies have been systematically weakened, and it may well decide its interests lie in the ceasefire holding and a return to negotiations.
Iran’s regional neighbours, who share significant concerns over Iran’s activities, also have a critical role to play. Diplomatic efforts will be crucial and could help build the conditions for long-lasting peace in the Middle East. In our own Indo-Pacific region too, the US action in Iran may help promote deterrence and encourage Australia and allies to address their strategic resilience.
Iran is a country with resourceful people, rich cultures and a proud, ancient history. Through turbulent times, the Iranian people have continued their persistent efforts to transform their country and realise their aspirations for freedom, prosperity and peace.
Australia’s relationship with Iran is long-standing, including engaging Iran in dialogue on issues from regional stability to human rights. Australia continues to press for Iran’s nuclear weapons program to be discontinued and for de-escalation, diplomacy and dialogue, in the interests of the people in the region and globally.