NASA’s upcoming Artemis II mission is not just a technological milestone; it is a signal to allies, competitors, industries and future generations.

Artemis II will see four astronauts circle the Moon and come back. It is humanity’s first crewed mission beyond low earth orbit since 1972, and it is a game changer.

The mission is a step towards making space a permanent domain of human activity beyond low earth orbit, rather than a theatre of episodic exploration. It brings to the forefront questions of governance, cooperation and productivity, while posing challenges of contestation and geopolitical rivalry.

Space reflects great power politics and today it is becoming more complex. This mission places humans back the space between Earth and the Moon at the precise moment when space is transitioning ^[1] into a fully fledged economic domain, while already being a strategic domain and a proving ground for international norms.

Artemis II matters because it further operationalises this trend.

NASA completed the rollout ^[2] of the Space Launch System rocket to the launch pad on 17 January. At 98 metres, the rocket stands taller than the Statue of Liberty. With the launch, as early as 6 February, the mission’s crew will begin a journey farther from Earth than any human has travelled.

Launch costs have collapsed. Private companies now build, launch and operate spacecraft that governments once monopolised. Soon they’ll run space stations in low earth orbit. Orbital services, lunar logistics and space-derived data have become investable in the order of billions of dollars.

The Moon is not simply a destination, because it stands to become a part of the humanity’s economy. The Artemis campaign ^[3] seeks to establish the first long-term presence on the Moon, with the third launch, Artemis III ^[4], aiming to put boots on the lunar surface for the first time since 1972.

Speaking to US news outlet CNBC, NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman said ^[5] the Artemis campaign would support ‘unlocking an orbital economy’ and that beyond just building a moon base, NASA would look to create an enduring presence.

That shift carries profound diplomatic implications. Commercialisation and long-term presence without governance assures instability. Artemis II therefore represents something deeper than exploration—it is the next step in what many ^[6] call the Space Race 2.0, and stands to influence how rules and norms will apply beyond Earth.

You can see this playing out in parallel with the NASA-led Artemis Accords ^[7]. Now with 60 international signatories, the accords aim to set common principles to enhance governance of the civil exploration and use of outer space.

Artemis isn’t a solo endeavour by the United States. A Canadian astronaut, Jeremy Hansen, is part of the Artemis II crew. Partners across Europe and the Indo-Pacific, including Australia ^[8], are contributing hardware, science and political support. This coalition matters. In space, as on Earth, legitimacy flows from participation.

At the same time, China’s lunar ambitions are real and accelerating. Milestones such as its successful sample return ^[9] from the far side of the moon demonstrate its momentum.

China’s lunar ambitions have been openly broadcast ^[9] for some time, with an aim of launching its lunar mission by 2030. From launching its first astronauts at the turn of the century to maintaining and occupying its own space station, China’s continued successes lend credence to those who say ^[10] China could well beat out the Artemis campaign to returning people to the lunar surface.

China and Russia are leading an alternative campaign ^[11], the International Lunar Research Station, for a comprehensive lunar base at the Moon’s south pole. ^[12]

US Senator Ted Cruz, whose committee approved Isaacman’s appointment as NASA administrator, put it bluntly ^[13]: ‘An extreme shift in priorities would almost certainly mean a red moon, ceding ground to China for generations to come.’

The future of space will be shaped not just by who gets there first but also by what technical, legal and economic systems become the default.

Artemis II sits at an inflection point. While its technological developments have us standing in awe, success hinges on the outcomes as much as on the proving point of whether democratic nations can align exploration, industry and diplomacy over decades rather than election cycles. Sustained presence requires sustained commitment.

There’s also a generational shift underway. Artemis II marks the arrival of the Artemis generation: engineers, diplomats, entrepreneurs and policymakers for whom space isn’t a distant dream but an occupational reality. They’ll inherit the decisions we make now about access, governance and inclusion. We owe them more than symbolism.

The mission will last an estimated 10 days. Its consequences will play out for decades.

The questions—which are already being debated and will only grow louder—centre around how rapidly this new space era will evolve from here and who will lead those developments. Artemis II will entrench space even more deeply into our economic systems and strategic thinking—not in some far-off future, but right now.