ASPI suggests
Posted By
James Brorson, Jack Norton and Malcolm Davis
on June 28, 2019 @ 15:21
The world
Australian student Alek Sigley is reported to have been
detained in North Korea. The news came just hours before Prime Minister Scott Morrison sat down with US President Donald Trump in Japan. It’s
thought that Sigley may be being held ahead of the US president’s visit to South Korea and a possible third summit between Trump and Kim Jong-un. See the
Financial Review for how Sigley’s detention could be used as a bargaining chip in negotiations with Pyongyang.
The prime minister is in Japan for the G20, which is underway in Osaka. Morrison’s meeting with Trump focused on
alliances and trade and was one of a number of bilateral meetings he’s holding with other leaders at the summit—though Chinese President Xi Jinping
isn’t one of them. See the
Japan Times for why the outcomes of the one-on-one meetings are likely to be much more significant than whatever the G20 leaders manage to jointly agree to.
The Lowy Institute has released its annual
international policy poll, which highlights how Australians view the changes in the global security landscape over the past year. Some stand-out findings include climate change ranking as number one on the threat index and the Australian public’s trust in China and the US both hitting their lowest points since the poll’s inception in 2005. A major source of this distrust could lie in the US–China trade war. Don’t cash in your savings just yet, though, as the
Financial Review claims the impact on Australia will be minimal, trimming only around 0.07 percentage points off GDP growth over the next two years.
Following the recent developments between the US and Iran, this
brief history looks at relations between the countries since 1953. (Spoiler alert: it hasn’t been smooth sailing.) See this
analysis of recent Iranian actions in the Persian Gulf and whether they signal the beginnings of open conflict. Speaking of which, Iran isn’t backing down from a potential confrontation, with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei
remaining defiant in the face of US sanctions and rising tensions between the countries. For a glimpse into Iran’s sophisticated offensive cyber capabilities, visit the
Center for Strategic and International Studies, and see how Iraq will react to the building pressure from both Iran and the US in
Foreign Affairs.
And if you’re wondering how a potential clash between the US and Iran fits into a global geopolitical view, see the
New York Times for how the situation in the Persian Gulf is actually
all about China. Robert D. Kaplan leans heavily on Halford Mackinder’s ‘
world island’ theory, but China’s presence in Pakistan and the focus of the Belt and Road Initiative add weight to his argument. Kelly Magsamen from the Center for American Progress was a bit more succinct,
tweeting: ‘If we go to war with Iran, we lose this century to the Chinese. It’s actually that simple. The stakes are that high.’
For some extra reading, see this interesting
long read in
ProPublica on what really happened in the 2016 incident involving the capture of 10 US Navy sailors by the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Tech geek
It’s been a long time coming, but the US is finally developing a
successor to the AIM-120 missile. The ‘AIM-260’ Joint Air Tactical Missile is being rolled out in response to rapid development of increasingly long-range
Chinese and
Russian air-to-air missiles.
There’s an interesting
article in
The Strategy Bridge on why geography and geopolitics still matter, even in the era of cyberwarfare. After all, cyberspace still depends on infrastructure, which is based in the physical world and affected by geography.
A key concern for the US Navy in the Persian Gulf is
swarm raids against its ships by Iranian fast attack craft. In response, it’s set to undertake a study of how to defend against such an attack. There’s some interesting
analysis (and
here) on Iranian swarm boat attacks, as well as a
report on Iran’s growing ability to challenge US naval power in the Gulf.
What does religion have to do with nuclear weapons? According to Dmitry Adamsky, there’s a clear
link between the Russian Orthodox Church and the country’s nuclear capability. See
here for a review of Adamsky’s
book,
Russian nuclear orthodoxy: religion, politics and strategy.
A recent dynamic in military affairs has been the growing
influence of science fiction—particularly
military science fiction—in thinking about
future warfare.
The Central Blue is keenly aware of this and their
collection is worth browsing through.
This week in history
This week in 1950, North Korean soldiers crossed the 38th Parallel and invaded South Korea, sparking the
Korean War. There were 339 Australians killed among the estimated 2.5 million people who lost their lives between 1950 and 1953. Sometimes dubbed ‘
the forgotten war’, it’s worth remembering that it
still isn’t over.
Multimedia
A must-watch!
The Atlantic has released a short documentary that follows the process taken by Russia to turn an Estonian army officer into a double agent [15:29]. For more on the story, see this
long read.
Al Jazeera brings you the story of Sarajevo’s librarians and how they saved thousands of books and manuscripts from destruction when the city was under siege. [46:35]
Podcasts
ASPI brings you the first of three special episodes of
Policy, Guns and Money that focus on our international conference, ‘War in 2025’, which was held this month. [15:36]
Listen
here for CSIS’s analysis of the difficulties associated with recent developments on the Korean peninsula, including the future of US–North Korea relations. [25:38]
Events
Canberra, 2 July, 5.30–7.30 pm, Australian Strategic Policy Institute: ‘Publication launch: Protecting critical national infrastructure in an era of IT and OT convergence’. Register
here.
Sydney, 3 July, 6–7.30 pm, University of Sydney: ‘Sydney ideas: Can we make food security failsafe in the age of climate change?’ Register
here.
James Brorson is the program development coordinator, Jack Norton is an editor of The Strategist, and Malcolm Davis is a senior analyst at ASPI. Image courtesy of the White House on Flickr.
Article printed from The Strategist: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au
URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aspi-suggests-135/
[1] detained: https://www.sbs.com.au/news/urgently-seeking-clarification-australian-student-feared-detained-in-north-korea
[2] thought: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-28/scott-morrison-concerned-alex-sigley-missing-in-north-korea/11260020
[3] Financial Review: https://www.afr.com/news/world/asia/australian-student-missing-in-north-korea-after-social-media-posts-20190627-p521pf
[4] alliances and trade: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-06-28/scott-morrision-meets-with-donald-trump-at-dinner-in-japan/11259746
[5] isn’t one of them: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/nation/politics/scott-morrison-dismisses-claims-of-strains-in-china-relationship/news-story/2062226b09291fd7dada195a7207362f
[6] Japan Times: https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/06/26/national/politics-diplomacy/world-leaders-bilateral-talks-likely-carry-weight-g20-osaka-summit/#.XRWF6-gzZQA
[7] international policy poll: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/lowy-institute-poll-2019
[8] Financial Review: https://www.afr.com/news/economy/13b-hit-but-australia-to-avoid-worst-of-trade-war-jpmorgan-20190527-p51rqn
[9] brief history: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24316661
[10] analysis: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2019/06/iran-in-the-gulf
[11] remaining defiant: https://www.wsj.com/articles/supreme-leader-says-iran-wont-back-down-from-u-s-11561569275
[12] Center for Strategic and International Studies: https://www.csis.org/analysis/iran-and-cyber-power
[13] Foreign Affairs: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/iran/2019-06-25/stuck-middle-iran
[14] all about China: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/06/26/opinion/trump-iran-china.html
[15] world island: https://thediplomat.com/2019/01/china-and-the-world-island/
[16] tweeting: https://twitter.com/kellymagsamen/status/1139671462762225668
[17] long read: https://www.propublica.org/article/trump-keeps-talking-about-last-military-standoff-iran-what-really-happened-farsi-island-navy
[18] successor: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/28636/meet-the-aim-260-the-air-force-and-navys-future-long-range-air-to-air-missile?xid=twittershare
[19] Chinese: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/military-balance/2018/02/not-your-fathers-plaaf
[20] Russian: https://www.iiss.org/publications/the-military-balance/the-military-balance-2018/mb2018-01-essays-1
[21] article: https://thestrategybridge.org/the-bridge/2019/6/4/the-revenge-of-geography-in-cyberspace
[22] swarm: https://warisboring.com/congress-wants-the-navy-to-prove-it-can-fight-off-a-swarm-attack-in-new-proposed-bill/
[23] analysis: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7MSKI9RmtwU
[24] here: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/irans-mad-max-navy-might-just-drive-donald-trump-crazy-war-63747
[25] report: https://www.iiss.org/blogs/analysis/2019/03/iran-new-anti-ship-missile-test
[26] link: https://jamestown.org/program/russian-orthodoxy-shaping-moscows-nuclear-policies/
[27] here: https://warontherocks.com/2019/06/blessed-be-thy-nuclear-weapons-the-rise-of-russian-nuclear-orthodoxy/
[28] book: https://www.amazon.com/Russian-Nuclear-Orthodoxy-Religion-Politics/dp/1503608050
[29] influence: https://groundedcuriosity.com/why-reading-science-fiction-is-good-for-military-officers/
[30] military science fiction: https://www.torforgeblog.com/2017/10/24/8-military-sci-fi-must-reads/
[31] future warfare: https://theportalist.com/the-future-of-war-peace-and-military-science-fiction
[32] collection: http://centralblue.williamsfoundation.org.au/category/fiction/
[33] Korean War: https://www.nma.gov.au/defining-moments/resources/korean-war
[34] the forgotten war: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/01/world/asia/korean-war-history.html
[35] still isn’t over: https://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-buzz/why-the-korean-war-never-really-ended-21566
[36] The Atlantic: https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/592507/russia-spy-doc/
[37] long read: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2019/06/estonia-russia-deniss-metsavas-spy/592417/
[38] Al Jazeera: https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/aljazeeraworld/2019/06/love-books-brave-librarians-sarajevo-190624131307367.html
[39] ASPI: https://soundcloud.com/user-415599049/policy-guns-money-war-in-2025-special-the-directors-cut
[40] here: https://www.csis.org/podcasts/impossible-state
[41] here: https://www.aspi.org.au/event/publication-launch-protecting-critical-national-infrastructure-era-it-and-ot-convergence
[42] here: https://whatson.sydney.edu.au/events/published/sydney-ideas-can-we-make-food-security-failsafe-in-the-age-of-climate-change