- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
ASPI’s decades: Riding China and the US
Posted By Graeme Dobell on December 20, 2021 @ 06:00
I think the order is going to change—indeed, is already changing. It’s simple. Asia has been stable since 1972 because China has accepted US primacy as the foundation of the Asian order. China did so because it believed it was too weak to contest it effectively. Now China believes it’s strong enough to contest US primacy, and it’s doing so.
[N]owhere in the civilised world is the China Choice logic gaining traction. Countries in the Asia–Pacific stickily persist in cooperating with each other; in wanting the US to remain engaged; in building defence capabilities and otherwise refusing to sacrifice their own interests to give China more breathing space.
While some Australians may view China as the new America to lead the Asia–Pacific, China has a less dramatic view of Australia. We’re useful but not indispensable to Beijing, and less politically important to it than China is to us. Shared experiences haven’t brought us to this moment of economic partnership, and the Chinese owe us no guiding loyalty.
In such a scenario, Australia would cease to have a great-power ally and be more vulnerable to foreign aggression than at any time since 1942. The only Asian country with the long-term potential to challenge Chinese hegemony is India. Australia should therefore hedge its bets with the US and China by pursuing better relations with New Delhi.
The deepening tension isn’t a transient phase in US–China relations. China has long treated America as a comprehensive rival. The US has finally accepted that reality, and that pessimistic conversion is deep and enduring. The administration’s turn against China is perhaps the only policy of Trump’s that the Democrats overwhelmingly support.
Containing China is a policy dead end. China is too enmeshed in the international system and too important to our region to be contained. And the notion that global technology supply chains can be divided into a China-led system and a US-led system is both economic and geopolitical folly.
The US is right to call China to account. But it would be a mistake for the US to cling to primacy by thwarting China. Those of us who value US leadership want the US to retain it by lifting its game, not spoiling China’s.
China’s rise needs to be managed not frustrated. It needs to be balanced not contained. Constructing that balance and anchoring it in a new strategic equilibrium in the Indo-Pacific is the big challenge of our time.
China’s outlook and the nature of China’s external engagement, both in our region and globally, has changed since our Comprehensive Strategic Partnership was formed and going further back than that, certainly in the decades that have led up till now. We cannot pretend that things are as they were. The world has changed.
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URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aspis-decades-riding-china-and-the-us/
[1] dilemma: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/import/2006Conf_combined.pdf?VersionId=xLVhF9jGnIs7GB__QrAoiZiiVz98xolD
[2] dealings: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/big-chill-china-australia/
[3] Beijing: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/cold-winds-fifth-china-oz-icy-age/
[4] icy: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/oz-china-chills-in-secworld-ecworld-socworld-dipworld-polworld/
[5] debate in 2013: https://www.aspi.org.au/video/does-australia-need-choose-between-us-and-china-peter-jennings-and-hugh-white-debate
[6] choice: https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/extract-china-choice-why-america-should-share-power
[7] The China choice: why America should share power: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/china-choice
[8] return bout: https://www.aspi.org.au/video/china-choose-or-not-choose-peter-jennings-and-hugh-white
[9] To choose or not to choose: how to deal with China’s growing power and influence: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/import/SI74_China_choice.pdf?VersionId=_pmHswvZ835UfKZXGN7P0jg3gUeoOGMD
[10] Facing the dragon: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/import/Strategy_Facing_the_Dragon.pdf?VersionId=rmflu6DP5SYqNnTlB0MvrY5D7P5vTG.C
[11] China’s new dream: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/import/SR64_China-_Hale.pdf?VersionId=RveD8vDSwMAVn5_4sr5Xl8Fv_tgaf2R6
[12] ANZUS and alliance politics in Southeast Asia: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2019-06/SI%20138%20ANZUS%20Southern%20flank.pdf?VersionId=Xefhph7V99cZwUdg2fLTN_1L0cHDPX0a
[13] Chimerica: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2019-04/SI%20136%20The%20end%20of%20Chimerica.pdf?VersionId=zquA2PovEXIFcI6_E30FH9PuLVx7PMHM
[14] block or thwart China: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/constructing-a-new-strategic-equilibrium-in-the-indo-pacific/
[15] critical security question: https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2019-12/SR%20151%20Rethinking%20Taiwan%20policy.pdf?VersionId=SaOjN6g449e1aGID6Vj5DkckS25FTTlg
[16] 2020 cut the value: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-25/australian-trade-with-china-plummets/100029910
[17] quite unreliable as a trading partner and even vindictive: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-03-26/australian-ambassador-to-china-says-trade-behaviour-vindictive/100030700
[18] ‘strategic partnership’: https://www.newsouthbooks.com.au/books/diary-foreign-minister/
[19] bid adieu: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/address-national-press-club-barton-act
[20] icy relationship: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australian-clarity-and-beijings-panic-mark-a-tumultuous-week/
[21] An informed and independent voice: ASPI, 2001–2021: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/informed-and-independent-voice-aspi-2001-2021