Australia must be clear-eyed and pragmatic about Donald Trump’s return to the White House, looking past the rhetoric to focus on advancing our strategic interests in an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific region.
His ‘America First’ declarations may unsettle traditional diplomatic sensibilities, but they mask a crucial reality: the United States isn’t withdrawing from global leadership; it’s redefining how that leadership works. While it is a rejection of the idea the US can, and should, continue to underwrite security and stability to the world alone, critics are wrong to call it isolationist.
In fact, one of the first executive orders signed on day one was to require American foreign policy to be guided by domestic interests. That isn’t withdrawal from the world or in fact radical. One of Joe Biden’s stated foreign policy priorities was always to ask: ‘What will our foreign policy mean for American workers and their families?’
For Australia, Trump’s second term presents both challenges and opportunities, but only if we can distinguish between his style and the substance of American strategic objectives.
The key for Australia will be to focus on actions, not words. Trump’s inauguration speech, while light on foreign policy specifics, revealed an approach grounded in peace through strength—suggesting that US superiority means fewer conflicts through deterrence. This aligns with Australia’s interests in three crucial areas: maintaining a stable Middle East with a secure Israel, preventing Russian victory in Ukraine, and most importantly, ensuring China cannot use its economic power to impose its military, technological and diplomatic might on the rest of us.
US involvement will, however, come with a requirement that allies make an equal or meaningful contribution. In this way, Trump’s modern-day America First movement differs from the first incarnation in 1940 of those Americans who did not want to enter World War II regardless of Britain doing more than its fair share to save the world from fascist authoritarianism.
It is likely that the Trump administration will challenge China’s behaviour early in the term. This includes by calling out cyber attacks, and by demanding fair and equitable trade. Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s congressional testimony as part of confirmation hearings provides the most recent, and clearest, indicator.
The Quad foreign ministers’ meeting has provided a further early indication, producing a joint statement that was brief but heavily security focussed. The fact that the Quad was effectively the first international meeting of the new administration also highlights the US will look to continue leading on regional stability.
And the Quad’s pre-eminence shows the need to see global affairs as far more than just US-China rivalry.
As the European Union’s President, Ursula von der Leyen, notes, we’re entering an era of ‘harsh’ strategic competition. While US-China rivalry dominates headlines, the reality is more nuanced. Multiple nations are engaged in a sophisticated contest for influence, with Australia positioned at the epicentre of this competition in the Indo-Pacific. Our success will depend on our ability to deploy both hard and soft power effectively.
Australia holds unique advantages in this environment. Our democratic credentials, commitment to the rule of law, and long history of regional engagement provide a strong foundation for leadership. The challenge is to build on these strengths while working in partnership with our neighbours and allies. This means maintaining our strategic alignment with the US while speaking with our own voice on regional issues.
The AUKUS partnership exemplifies how Australia can successfully navigate this new era. It represents more than just a submarine deal—it’s a blueprint, as Rubio has called it, for modern alliance-building that delivers tangible benefits to the broader Indo-Pacific region. This kind of innovative thinking shows how like-minded nations can work together to maintain a free and open regional order while sharing the burden of regional security.
The path forward requires sophisticated diplomacy that can work with Trump’s unorthodox style while advancing our regional interests. We must judge both the US and China by their actions, not their words—particularly given Beijing’s history of breaching international agreements while claiming to uphold them.
As we prepare for this new era of strategic competition, Australia must be bold in its vision while pragmatic in its execution. We need political leadership that can see past rhetorical flourishes to identify and pursue our core strategic interests. The foundations are there in our democratic values, our regional relationships, and our strategic partnerships. The challenge now is to build upon them with the creativity and courage that these complex times demand.
The success of this approach will depend on our ability to look beyond Trump’s unconventional diplomatic style to the underlying strategic alignment between Australian and US interests. By focusing on actions over rhetoric, strengthening our regional partnerships, and maintaining our independent voice while working closely with allies, Australia can effectively navigate the challenges and opportunities of this new era in global politics.