The future of Australia’s critical minerals sector will test our commitment to sovereign capability, regional development and supply chain resilience. Despite billions in investment announcements and a growing list of international critical minerals partnerships, one uncomfortable truth remains: Australia still exports raw materials while importing the resulting product. Without midstream and downstream capacity—processing, refining and manufacturing—we remain a quarry economy.

Northern Australia can change this trajectory. Home to vast mineral reserves and geographically positioned near Asian markets, regions including the Northern Territory, far north Queensland and northern Western Australia should be the frontline of Australia’s processing ambitions.

But turning this potential into performance requires more than ambition. It demands a coordinated national effort to develop common-use infrastructure, scale energy generation and train a specialist workforce. Defence and economic policy must intersect more deliberately, particularly as the Defence Strategic Review acknowledges northern Australia’s growing geostrategic importance. The region can no longer be seen solely as a forward operating base. It must also be a site of value creation, capability and prosperity.

While Australia’s Critical Minerals Strategy and industrial initiatives linked to AUKUS are steps forward, most funding remains focused on extraction. The absence of large-scale investment in processing reflects a policy gap that will see us fall short of our obligations to allies and trade partners, who need diversified, reliable sources of critical minerals. The collapse of the Pinjarra gallium refinery in the 1990s should be a cautionary tale. That project was doomed by poor integration, market volatility and a lack of downstream focus. We must ensure that today’s critical minerals plans are embedded in a broader industrial vision to avoid repeating this mistake.

This begins with infrastructure. Northern Australia faces acute shortfalls in housing, energy and transport capacity. These gaps are compounded by skills shortages, supply chain disruptions and a regional construction sector struggling to scale. Governments must do more than subsidise projects if they want to anchor a processing economy in the north. They must build the enabling environment. That means co-investment in roads, ports and power grids, particularly in hubs such as Darwin, Townsville and Karratha. It also means solving the regional housing crisis, which constrains labour mobility and limits project delivery.

Just as important is workforce capability. Processing capacity needs metallurgists, chemical engineers, automation specialists and skilled technicians, many of whom are in short supply. The next phase of critical minerals policy must align capital investment with skills pipelines. Universities, such as Curtin and members of the Northern Australia Universities Alliance, must be resourced to expand programs in industrial chemistry and process engineering. At the same time, vocational training centres must deliver fast-tracked pathways for high-demand trades. We must build more than refineries if we want regional Australia to power the next industrial era. We need to develop local expertise.

Gallium is a case in point. The commercial production of gallium—a small-volume but high-impact mineral essential to AI, semiconductors and military systems—is currently monopolised by China. Its recent export restrictions underline the urgency of supply chain diversification. Australia produces gallium as a by-product of bauxite and zinc refining. Still, it cannot be recovered at a commercial scale. Queensland and Western Australia offer immediate recovery potential, while future investment in Gove and Middle Arm could position the Northern Territory as a global supplier. Gallium could well be the entry point for Australia’s ascent into high-tech strategic materials.

This is not just a matter of economic opportunity but of national resilience. Australia cannot afford to be a junior partner in the value chains we help start. Our national interest lies in moving up the ladder from extraction to processing and eventually to manufacturing. Achieving that shift will require political courage, strategic clarity and cross-jurisdictional coordination that has so far eluded the sector.

The federal government must lead this transformation with a straightforward strategic narrative. It is one that articulates what needs to be done, why it matters, how it will be achieved, and who is responsible. This narrative should prioritise long-term capability over short-term announcements, and whole-of-government coordination over fragmented project funding. The states and territories must also step up, particularly in northern Australia, where the integration of defence, industry and infrastructure planning is overdue.

There is no shortage of vision in Australia’s critical minerals sector. However, vision alone will not build processing plants, train skilled workers, or anchor sovereign capability. If Australia is serious about supply chain sovereignty, it must stop thinking like a miner and start acting like a manufacturer. Gallium is just the beginning.