Plans for making 155mm artillery shells in Australia are inadequate. They’ll leave us still relying on imports for some parts, and production capacity for those parts that are made locally would not meet Australian Army demand in a major conflict.
Despite the costs, the Australian government should work to bring in-country the entire supply chain for 155mm shells, which are staple battlefield ammunition. It should also expand local production capacity beyond what is currently planned.
Shortages of 155mm shells, whether because factories lack capacity or because imported parts are unavailable, would severely diminish the army’s ability to fight. We must run no such risk.
The return of intense conflict in recent years has underscored the continuing importance of conventional artillery. A severe and enduring shortage of shells has forced Ukraine to ration fire support for army units. It and Western allies are scrambling to rebuild production lines that were dismantled after the Cold War.
As part of this, the Australian government said on 30 October it would contract Thales to install a forge for making bodies for M795 shells at the Benalla Munitions Facility in Victoria. The M795 is the standard 155mm high-explosive round and can be used by both of Australia’s artillery types: the M777A2 towed howitzer and the forthcoming AS9 Huntsman self-propelled howitzer. By 2028, the facility is expected to produce 15,000 shells a year, with a capacity for 100,000 a year.
The number is less impressive than it sounds. In 2023, Ukraine’s 300 artillery pieces of 155mm calibre fired about 7000 shells a day, an average of 23 per gun per day. If Australia’s 48 M777s and 30 Huntsmans were as busy in intense ground fighting, they’d together fire 1800 shells per day—around 650,000 a year, vastly beyond the current planned domestic production capacity. Indeed, the industrial set-up will be able to supply only 3.5 shells per artillery piece per day.
In the event of a major ground war, Australia would need to rapidly expand its production. However, even maintaining currently planned production levels at Benalla during or in the lead-up to a major conflict could be challenging.
In defence economics, there’s almost always a tension between the cost and timeliness of supply on one hand and self-sufficiency on the other. Under normal circumstances, a globalised supply chain is a good thing, with different countries able to create economies of scale or and exploit local advantages to reduce production costs. It can be fast and cheap to produce materials and components separately in several different countries before assembly.
However, during a conflict, or even in the period leading up to it, globalised supply chains can be a weakness. The most obvious risk is the physical disruption, such as by submarines attacking supply convoys. Another risk is that a sudden spike in demand can overwhelm global capacity. Countries put their own demand first and exports second.
In times of geopolitical tension, it makes sense for governments to establish complete domestic supply chains (or at least as complete as possible) of essential military consumables. 155-mm shells are one of those essentials.
This usually increases unit costs, and it takes time. This is why, in times of peace, governments often seek a middle ground by bringing part of a production process in-country but avoid the high costs of completely self-sufficient manufacturing processes. But this can end up being the worst of both worlds: time and resources are spent to achieve partial local production that still relies on global supply chains in the event of a conflict.
There is already an Australian example of how fragmented artillery production can be, with the NIOA munitions factory in Queensland. Steel is imported from Germany, then forged and machined into a shell at NIOA. The empty shells are then sent overseas to be filled with fuses, primers and a propellant. The NIOA facility could be a great asset to Australia in the event of a conflict, but it would need to immediately broaden its production processes or shut down if it could not source components from overseas.
The Australian government’s munitions production announcement also includes upgrading the Mulwala Propellant Facility, which will allow propellant suitable for M795 shells to be produced.
However, there is no sign of local production of two other significant 155mm shell components: fuses and primers. (The Department of Defence did not respond to a query on whether there were plans to produce fuses and primers locally.) Neither of those components is beyond the technical capabilities of Australian industry to produce. The government should move promptly to set up facilities for making them. Producing primers locally is particularly important, as they are a source of bottlenecks in munitions production globally.
Such additions to the production process are likely to be costly. However, given increasing tensions around the world and the demonstrated continued importance of conventional artillery in modern conflict, having a significant and completely indigenous 155mm production capability would improve the Australian Army’s prospects of staying in the fight in a major war when global supply chains were disrupted, demand outstripped allied supply, or both.