Australia and Papua New Guinea’s Pukpuk Treaty is not just about keeping China at arm’s length. It’s also about long-term investment in PNG’s stability, strengthening its defence capacity, enhancing crisis response and addressing demographic and economic fragility.
Much of the commentary about the pact, which was detailed this week but, unexpectedly, not promptly signed, has framed it as a response to rising Chinese influence in the Pacific. But what is being overlooked is that it addresses a need for timely and long-term investment in security and nation-building, to the mutual benefit of both PNG and Australia.
PNG is a complex society with significant security challenges. A serious deterioration of security would have far-reaching consequences. For example, if PNG’s Highlands region descended into prolonged instability and the PNG Defence Force (PNGDF) couldn’t restore order, the PNG government might ask Australia to assist in stabilisation. This is not a hypothetical concern: tribal violence and weak governance already stretch state institutions. A failure of security in the Highlands could spill across PNG and into the wider region.
The scale of such a mission would be daunting. Australia’s experience in Solomon Islands under the Regional Assistance Mission to Solomon Islands (RAMSI) provides some perspective. Running from 2003 to 2017, RAMSI cost Australia around $3 billion and saw the deaths of Australian Protective Service Officer Adam Dunning and Private Jamie Clark. Yet PNG is far larger, more populous and more geographically complex than Solomon Islands. Stabilisation would be complicated by rugged terrain in the Highlands region as well as deep-rooted tribal conflicts.
A Highlands stabilisation mission could cost ten times as much as RAMSI and require large numbers of Australian and regional forces in a far more threatening environment. For example, a simple operation in 1969 to vaccinate the Highlands required more than 700 members of the Australian Defence Force. A stabilisation campaign would be far larger and stretch the ADF, diverting resources from other pressing commitments. Helping PNG build its own security capacity is a far more cost-effective strategy.
It is against this backdrop that the Pukpuk Treaty takes on its real importance.
PNG is a young country facing serious challenges. Tribal violence continues to erupt in the Highlands, most starkly in February 2024, when at least 49 people were killed in Enga Province. Nearly 60 percent of the population is under 25, and urban youth unemployment is staggering—about 62 percent in 2020—with very few opportunities in the formal economy. Without adequate jobs, social safety nets or services, crime and insecurity are rising, and the burden of managing these pressures often falls on PNG’s security services, including the PNGDF.
Unlike the ADF, the PNGDF is mainly inwardly focused. It is often called upon to support domestic security in difficult conditions: dense jungle, remote islands, porous borders and the formidable Highlands. When police or border officials cannot operate, the PNGDF fills the void. The force is also called on to bolster state capacity during crises. For example, during the Covid-19 pandemic, the PNGDF provided domestic security, delivered medical supplies and helped remote communities during lockdowns. In effect, it has become not just a military but a civic force of last resort.
Australia has long understood this. Nearly 40 ADF advisers are embedded throughout the PNGDF, making this Australia’s largest overseas defence cooperation program. Such support is essential not only to counter external actors such as China and ensure a greater contribution to regional security contingencies but also to help PNG manage its own demographic, geographic and security challenges.
The Pukpuk Treaty builds on this foundation, sending a clear message that Canberra is committed to PNG’s development trajectory. Security investment can underpin broader economic growth by strengthening governance, reducing crime and improving investor confidence.
For Australia, the stakes are direct. Queensland’s northernmost islands in the Torres Strait are just 4 kilometres from PNG. A secure, capable and friendly PNG is essential to Australia’s own national security. From the perspective of a long-standing neighbour and partner, it is the right thing to do.
The Pukpuk Treaty should not be viewed narrowly as geopolitics or only as an act of denying China space. Its deeper value lies in long-term investment in PNG’s stability and statehood and, by extension, Australia’s own security. In strengthening the PNGDF, Australia is making a timely investment to help PNG address its demographic pressures and internal security stresses. If these efforts falter, the alternative could be far costlier for PNG, Australia and indeed the entire Pacific.