Thirty-three years ago, Deng Xiaoping said that ‘The Middle East has oil, but China has rare earths.’ Today, that rings truer than ever. Critical minerals and rare earths are no longer niche commodities; they are the backbone of global supply chains, the foundation of defence capability and the enablers of the green energy transition. As the West wakes from its long nap, a new global order is taking shape with these materials at its core.
This was on full display in Darwin, where hundreds of delegates—welcomed by environmental protesters—converged for Northern Territory Resources Week from 3 to 4 September. The event underscored how oil, gas, mining, clean energy and decarbonisation are now inseparable from questions of economic and national security. On the back of approvals for Beetaloo Sub-basin project and renewed debates about the future of the Gove Peninsula, Chief Minister Lia Finocchiaro framed the moment as one of green warfare—a contest where energy, minerals and resilience will shape the decades ahead.
The numbers speak for themselves. Over the past decade, the Australian minerals sector has contributed a remarkable $394.6 billion in tax and royalties to government revenues; enough to cover the estimated cost of AUKUS with billions left over. In 2024–25, the Australian oil and gas industry contributed $21.9 billion in taxes and royalties, comparable to the acquisition and 30-year operating costs for 211 combat reconnaissance vehicles and 450 infantry fighting vehicles, again with billions left over. These are not marginal industries; they underwrite the national balance sheet, fund public services and anchor Australia’s economic security.
As technology advances—driven by artificial intelligence, electrification and the expansion of data centres—demand for critical minerals will soar. Magnets made from heavy rare earths are essential for our warfighting capability, with one F-35 Lightning II fighter requiring around 418 kilograms and a Virginia-class submarine requiring around 2,600 kilograms of heavy rare earths. Gallium and germanium underpin the production of semiconductors. Antimony is used in munitions and weapons casings. Uranium, copper and nickel are central to the next nuclear and clean-energy revolutions. Without stronger planning and a willingness to accept cost increases to build domestic capability, Australia remains vulnerable to dependence on China, which is already weaponising its dominance of rare earth exports.
Queensland senator Susan McDonald used the forum to call for copper to be added to Australia’s critical minerals list, echoing the United States’ August move. The fate of the nickel industry—once thriving, now struggling under global competition—looms large as a warning.
Investors and companies called for policy and regulatory clarity, consistency and certainty. They highlighted that without government-to-government collaboration, risk can deter private investment. The lesson is clear: the government cannot sit back. From underwriting demand and floor prices, to providing multi-user infrastructure and adaptive reuse plans for facilities set to close, the policy levers must be pulled with both urgency and strategic foresight.
Despite a recent wave of project cancellations, hydrogen was a hot topic. According to data shared by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Association, electricity accounted for around 34 percent of national emissions. Hydrogen’s role in reducing that footprint remains contested, primarily due to cost. Current hydrogen production costs sit at $5 to $10 per kilogram. Capital costs for electrolysers and refuelling stations are high, while the wholesale price of electricity remains stubborn. Without secure offtake agreements, investors are hesitant to proceed.
If hydrogen is tomorrow’s hope, carbon capture and storage (CCS) is today’s necessity. Ninety percent of Australia’s energy still comes from fossil fuels, and the production gap between demand and renewables capacity will persist for decades. Steel, cement, plastics and ammonia are considered the four material pillars of modern life, as they are produced in huge volumes and underpin everything from infrastructure to food security. They are also highly carbon intensive to produce.
The NT’s existing gas reservoirs offer ready-made CCS opportunities, with Inpex’s Bonaparte CCS project given major project status. But CCS only works at scale, with 30 to 50 years of operation required to offset capital costs. Certainty of commitment, not technology, is the stumbling block. Without strong policy backing, CCS risks being another option deemed too hard, despite it being the lowest-hanging fruit.
Perhaps the most compelling story of the week was Arafura Rare Earths’ Nolans Project, just outside Alice Springs. Framed as the world’s most advanced rare earths development outside China, the project promises a 50-year mine life; world-class economic, social and governance standards; and the potential to double Darwin Port throughput in its first phase alone. By producing high-grade phosphoric acid alongside rare earth oxides, it offers diversification and resilience against global market shocks. Most importantly, Nolans could act as a processing hub, enabling other projects that would otherwise be unviable due to logistics and capital costs. In a market where nearly 50 percent of global rare earths are sourced from Myanmar—often under appalling conditions—Australia has a chance to redefine responsible supply chains.
History offers lessons. In the 1960s, the North West Shelf gas project was not approved on the back of a business case or cost benefit analysis; it was approved on principle, with the government underwriting the demand and initial risk. Today, similar intervention is needed, particularly as other countries act and alter the global market. The US is already underwriting demand, setting floor prices and stockpiling for its defence sector. To stay in the game, Australia must be willing to match that scale of ambition.
Darwin’s NT Resources Week was a reminder that critical minerals, energy security, hydrogen and CCS are no longer separate debates; they are interwoven threads in a single fabric of national resilience. The path forward demands policy certainty, strategic investment and the courage to accept short-term costs for long-term self-sufficiency. Critical minerals are to the 21st century what oil was to the 20th. The question for Australia is whether we will seize the opportunity, or watch others dictate the terms of the new resource order.