Xi Jinping’s latest purge of top military officers probably reduces the chance of China taking imminent, deliberate military action to seize Taiwan. But many interpretations of the event are possible, and some imply an increased …
Articles by: "Nathan Attrill"
Analysing China’s military activity around Taiwan often invites a simple question: what triggered it? Analysts tend to assume that spikes in aircraft sorties, naval deployments or coast guard operations must be a reaction to something …
Taiwan has an inadvertent, rarely acknowledged role in global affairs: it’s a kind of sponge, soaking up much of China’s political, military and diplomatic efforts. Taiwan absorbs Chinese power of persuasion and coercion that won’t …
China’s pressure campaign aims to bend Taiwan toward eventual annexation. But sustained coercion could weaken the liberal nature of its democracy even without a loss of sovereignty. The danger is that countering coercion can gradually …
‘AI safety’ has become a buzz-phrase in Silicon Valley, where tech companies use it to refer to artificial intelligence systems that reflect human values and protect human well-being. AI chatbots that encourage a person to …
As US President Donald Trump’s second term unfolds, Taiwan finds itself manoeuvring with a familiar but less predictable security partner. The United States remains, by capability and necessity, Taiwan’s primary security guarantor, offering arms sales, …
The most sustained conflict unfolding between China and Taiwan is not taking place on the water or in the air; it is happening in cyberspace. Over the past two years, China has escalated a comprehensive …
By any measure, China’s four main choices for forcing unification with Taiwan—subversion, quarantine, blockade, or invasion—would all have far-reaching consequences for Beijing and the wider Indo-Pacific. While the scenarios vary in intensity, they share outcomes: …
If China decides to dramatically accelerate unification with Taiwan—whether through subversion, quarantine, blockade or full-scale invasion—the first 24 hours will be pivotal. But they will hardly be the end. Taiwan will fight back. Whatever course …
At first, it may not be easy to see what’s afoot. The difference between China’s routine coercion of Taiwan and early signs of serious escalation to take control of the island may not be clear. …
ASPI has wargamed President Xi Jinping’s options for subjugating Taiwan. We tried four scenarios, the details of which will be presented in this and three more daily articles this week. Xi likely favours a path …
Taiwan has dramatically stepped-up efforts to address what authorities describe as a growing espionage challenge linked to China. In 2024, 64 individuals were charged with espionage-related offences—more than in the previous two years combined. According …