Articles by: "Rod Lyon"
North Korea: the plot thickens

North Korea’s latest provocation—a successful test of an intercontinental-range ballistic missile (ICBM)—brings the long-building crisis on the Korean peninsula to a dangerous flashpoint. For one thing, it’s clear evidence that North Korea aspires not merely …

The nuclear ban cometh … unfortunately

In New York, negotiations towards a nuclear weapons ban treaty—involving approximately 130 countries plus sundry civil society groups—are drawing rapidly to a close. A second draft (PDF) of the text is already under discussion. In …

The Indo-Pacific: what kind of peace?

Prime Minister Turnbull’s keynote address to the recent Shangri-La Dialogue turned upon one critical question: what kind of peace does Australia hope to see in the 21st century Indo-Pacific? That’s not a small question. Turnbull’s …

Ballistic missiles and the ‘½ rule’

North Korea’s ballistic missile tests are indeed a roller-coaster ride. After a string of failures in its recent ballistic missile testing program, with some missiles failing almost immediately after launch, last Sunday it conducted what …

Wars of necessity, wars of choice

In his recent public address at ASPI (excerpted here on The Strategist), Senator Nick Xenophon argued for parliament to play a greater role in the authorisation of military action. His argument turned, in part, upon …

North Korea: is war near?

Imagine that you’re on a quest. You’ve journeyed, wearily, for decades. The bones of your dead horses describe a winding trail in the wilderness behind you. You come at last to a cross-roads, from which …

Trump, mill-ponds and dropped wrenches

Despite last week’s cruise missile attack in Syria, the outlook for the strategic policy of the Trump administration is still deeply uncertain. After all, one missile strike doesn’t make a strategic policy. And US declaratory …

The AN/TPY-2 radar and second-strike guarantees

International relations sometimes turn on points of deep uncertainty. One of the hottest current debates concerns the capabilities of the AN/TPY-2 radar associated with the THAAD system being deployed in South Korea. The question of …

North Korea: stronger Kim, but weaker Kims?

Finding a solution to North Korea’s accelerating nuclear and missile programs grows more urgent by the day. Our previous strategies—delay and denial—will no longer avail us. But the three standard options—diplomacy, sanctions or use of …

Nuclear balancing and the curse of the heavy ICBM

These days, when Australians turn to thinking about worrying nuclear weapons issues, they tend to look first to the alarming pace of North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs, second to the growing role of nuclear …

Asia 2017: strategic transformation accelerates

In a recent podcast for Foreign Policy, editor David Rothkopf interviewed Thomas Friedman about his latest book—essentially an argument for why, in 2017, we should feel optimistic about the future. Friedman’s core argument is that …