The US administration is still formulating its Indo-Pacific policy, but recent indications suggest that it will take a tough stance on Taiwan. At the Shangri-La Dialogue, held in Singapore from 30 May to 1 June, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth reiterated that the United States is an Indo-Pacific nation and is ‘here to stay’. He warned the participants that any attempt by China to conquer Taiwan by force would result in ‘devastating consequences’ for the region and the world. And the bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities last month demonstrated that under the right circumstances, US President Donald Trump would not shy away from military action.

In this context, the publication this month of Chris Horton’s Ghost Nation could hardly be more timely. Based in China, Hong Kong and Taiwan, Horton has spent the past two decades reporting on China and Taiwan for global media including the Financial Times, The New York Times and Nikkei Asia.

Horton’s book is thoroughly researched and packed with interviews, including dissidents and professionals whose daily lives were impacted by the country’s political transformation, and former Taiwanese presidents Lee Teng-hui and Tsai Ing-wen.

Horton anchors his narrative in the triangular relationship between China, Japan and the US. The Qing dynasty took Taiwan over from the Dutch in 1683, but the emperor’s initial attitude to the island was demeaning: ‘Taiwan is no bigger than a ball of mud. We gain nothing by possessing it, and it will be no loss if we do not acquire it.’

Gradually this changed, and in 1887 imperial China declared Taiwan a province only to cede it to Japan in 1895 as part of the Sino-Japanese war peace settlement. Despite China’s vocal claims over Taiwan, Horton reminds us that the last time the island was ruled from Beijing was during the Qing dynasty.

Following Japan’s defeat in World War II, administrative control over Taiwan was transferred to the Republic of China, led by Chiang Kai-shek’s Kuomintang (KMT). Horton provides a vivid account of tensions between the KMT, who were outsiders, and the indigenous Taiwanese. The 1947 killing by KMT soldiers of a young Taiwanese woman and the subsequent violent repression by the authorities ushered in 38 years of martial law and set the tone for the KMT’s ‘complex and dark’ relationship with Taiwan.

Opposition to the KMT led to the emergence in 1986 of Taiwan’s second major political party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and to Taiwan’s democratisation. The KMT gradually evolved from being the Chinese Communist Party’s nemesis to aligning itself with Beijing’s interests, while the DPP remains wary of Beijing and regularly emphasises that Taiwan is de facto an independent country.

As the newly established People’s Republic of China grew stronger, it eroded Taiwan’s international position and threatened its holding of the China seat at the United Nations. In the 1960s, Taiwan’s supporters in Washington encouraged a two-state settlement, with Beijing taking the China seat and Taipei being represented as Taiwan. At the time, Beijing had much less leverage than it does today, and this might have been feasible.

However, Chiang stubbornly refused, and in 1971 Taiwan was replaced by China at the UN and since then international recognition of Taiwan has declined. Many historians blame Chiang’s unrealistic ambitions for trapping Taiwan in its current state of diplomatic limbo.

With US-China relations high on the international agenda, Horton provides a timely reminder of the patchwork foundations for US policy on Taiwan. These include the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act, three US-Chinese joint communiques, and six informal assurances given to Taiwan by president Ronald Reagan. When Trump was first elected to office in 2016, apparently unaware of the US’s one-China policy, he accepted a congratulatory phone call from Taiwan’s president Tsai, breaking established protocol and seriously aggravating Beijing.

China is currently developing a range of new military hardware, including amphibious landing barges that appear to be designed for a takeover of Taiwan. But Horton notes that Taiwan’s huge semiconductor industry makes it virtually indispensable. As more than half of the world’s foundry chips and 90 percent of advanced semiconductors produced in Taiwan, a shutdown of its microchip manufacturers would trigger a global supply chain crisis.

Trump plans to lead a delegation of US industrial leaders on a visit to China later in the year. Inevitably this will also put Taiwan in the spotlight. Ghost Nation is a lucid and up-to-date read for public servants and business leaders prepping themselves for the reformulation of US policy towards China and the Indo-Pacific.

This article has been amended to better describe the Republic of China’s gaining of control of Taiwan after the defeat of Japan.