China has begun building a mighty dam, one that will create a mighty threat to hold over India and Bangladesh.
Beijing said last week it had commenced construction of the world’s largest hydroelectric dam, on the Yarlung Tsangbo River in Tibet. It’s the river that, when it enters northeastern India, is known as the Brahmaputra. Then it flows into Bangladesh.
The project has attracted criticism for negative effects on people and the environment in both the downstream countries. China’s rejection of the criticism must be taken with some scepticism, since its poor record on ecological care is open to question.
Fears of massive potential ecological disruption to the fragile Himalayas are genuine. The region is seismically active, and the project could increase the frequency of floods, earthquakes and landslides.
China is spending an estimated 1.2 trillion yuan (US$170 billion) on the dam, which it calls the Medog Hydropower Station. On part of the river known as the Great Bend, it will outdo the Three Gorges dam as the world’s largest such project and is expected to produce three times more power—300 billion kilowatt-hours annually, more than Britain’s 2024 consumption.
According to a December Xinhua News report, this is part of China’s strategy to move towards carbon neutrality. But China may be keen on the project to boost demand for industries with overcapacity, such as civil engineering. This would also reduce unemployment.
A strategic reason is obviously in there, too. China appears to see water as a tool for coercing neighbouring countries, such as India, just as it has used economic coercion against Australia and Japan.
As an upstream country, China has disproportionate control over the flow of water from the river. With such a massive upstream dam, it will be able to turn the water tap on and off as it pleases. It could restrict flow during dry seasons and increase it during monsoons, creating floods.
India, long embroiled in political and territorial disputes with China, can only be alarmed.
Indian officials and experts have raised concerns. Pema Khandu, chief minister of the Indian border state Arunachal Pradesh said this month, ‘The issue is that China cannot be trusted. No one knows what they might do. … It is going to cause an existential threat to our tribes and our livelihoods. It is quite serious because China could even use this as a sort of water bomb.’
A related concern is that, in building the dam, China will also construct infrastructure in Tibet, such as roads, that it could use to bring massive military power onto the Indian border.
Nothing can assuredly stop China from weaponising the water. Maybe the only restraint will be that it won’t want to hurt Bangladesh, with which it has an important relationship.
India has no legal recourse, because it has no water-sharing agreements with China, like the India-Pakistan Indus Water Treaty or India-Bangladesh Ganges Treaty. With China, India has only a limited memorandum of understanding that focuses on sharing water data.
A treaty would have doubtful value, anyway. China has shown by its wanton behaviour elsewhere, including the South China Sea, that its good behaviour cannot be guaranteed