Last month, US Senator Tammy Duckworth warned that China may be more likely to impose an economic blockade on Taiwan in 2028 than launch a full-scale invasion. The most consequential part of her warning was …
The Strategist on: "State of the Strait"
In 2026, Beijing is making international engagement with Taiwan more costly. China has long sought to narrow Taiwan’s international space and make unification appear inevitable without resorting to force. But this year, that campaign has …
US President Donald Trump’s suggestion that he might speak directly with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te about weapons sales matters not because a call has been scheduled – it has not – but because of what …
China’s pressure on Taiwan increasingly relies on vessels that aren’t warships. Instead, Beijing is deploying a maritime grey-zone fleet: a network of civilian and paramilitary vessels used to harass, intimidate and probe Taiwan while remaining …
Meetings between the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and Taiwan’s Kuomintang (KMT) are now routine, no longer tentative or discreet but frequent and increasingly public. From 7 to 12 April 2026, KMT chair Cheng Li-wun is …
In 2024, China’s united front system tried to love-bomb Taiwanese youth through cross-strait exchanges and outreach programs designed to cultivate goodwill and influence. In 2025, Beijing returned to a more traditional playbook: shaping how Taiwan’s …
Beijing’s primary concern in a Taiwan contingency is US intervention—but its planning would not stop there. China has the capacity to pressure key US allies, including Australia, even while focusing on the United States itself. …
Fresh from a decisive electoral landslide, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has emerged more politically secure than ever—despite Beijing’s attempt in 2025 to make her a cautionary example over Taiwan. Rather than isolating her, China’s …
China has built not only a military to coerce Taiwan, but an army of lawyers to intimidate and constrain it. In 2025, Beijing’s lawfare campaign shifted decisively from largely declaratory threats to active enforcement. The …
Xi Jinping’s latest purge of top military officers probably reduces the chance of China taking imminent, deliberate military action to seize Taiwan. But many interpretations of the event are possible, and some imply an increased …
Analysing China’s military activity around Taiwan often invites a simple question: what triggered it? Analysts tend to assume that spikes in aircraft sorties, naval deployments or coast guard operations must be a reaction to something …
Taiwan has an inadvertent, rarely acknowledged role in global affairs: it’s a kind of sponge, soaking up much of China’s political, military and diplomatic efforts. Taiwan absorbs Chinese power of persuasion and coercion that won’t …