Diplomacy first: Australia’s diplomatic push in a contested Indo-Pacific
20 Jan 2025|

The return of Donald Trump could demote diplomacy as he pursues hard power and economic statecraft. Diplomacy may be more about damage control than prioritising the long game and the art of exercising constructive leadership.

Trump has already fixated on the ideas of buying Greenland and retaking the Panama Canal and is musing that Canada should join the United States as the 51st state. This reflects his style of using coercive diplomacy with maximalist positions to manipulate others’ cost-benefit calculus in his favour. Trump can also rally strong domestic support, showcasing his resolve to punish those he believes are responsible for exploiting US interests and generosity.

Under Trump, the US may demand more from its allies than its rivals, so those allies will need to invest in skilful diplomacy. This ought to be good news for Australia, given its investments in advancing its hard and soft power.

Australia’s foreign policy strategy addresses its fears, advances trust and builds cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. It combines use of hard and soft power to advance a whole-of-nation strategy (including AUKUS and lessening economic dependence on China) and meaningful diplomatic outreach where its goal is to be the partner of choice.

This approach reflects the character of its diplomatic footing that recognises the value of establishing equal partnerships. It means Australia can play an effective leadership role in the Indo-Pacific as others are nervous about a confrontational White House. As the new administration settles in, Australian foreign policy can be a tool to reassure an array of actors Canberra has developed close relations with to show how to better deal with Trump’s America First policy.

Australia’s relationship with the US places it in an enviable position, considering Trump’s relations with some other allies. As Canberra invests more in its relationship with Washington, its regional relations should not fall behind.

Australia’s alliance with the US has helped enhance the Australia-Japan relationship, as shown by the Australia-Japan-US defence ministers’ summit in November last year. Australia and Japan are both Indo-Pacific maritime nations and share concerns about China. They can use their network of strong regional partnerships to shape the regional order in at least three ways.

First, they can increase naval deployments to strengthen maritime cooperation, particularly with the Pacific island countries to counter China’s increasing presence. For example, a Japanese Maritime Self-Defense Force deployment in 2024 visited more than a dozen countries, including the Philippines, India, Papua New Guinea, Tonga, Marshall Islands, Fiji and Palau.

Among them, Palau and the Marshall Islands recognise Taipei instead of Beijing. Beijing may find it easier to corner Taiwan if its last remaining Pacific allies recognise Beijing, which would also enable the Chinese navy to broaden its strategic presence in key parts of the Pacific. As tensions rise, it would be tempting to view Australian and Japanese naval deployments in a security-centric manner. But the missions have dual military and diplomatic purposes as they caution the Chinese navy and reassure their Pacific partners of their freedom to navigate.

Second, Australia and Japan should engage the Pacific island countries on their own terms, given their distinct priorities. Despite the geopolitical competition between the ruling power and the rising one, Pacific partners have their own interests and reject the securitisation of their maritime domain. In fact, Australia’s longstanding engagement with the Pacific through Pacific-led regional organisations, including the Pacific Islands Forum, allows key policy areas to be covered without being swept under the security rug. The Pacific’s interests are in strengthening climate and disaster resilience, increasing economic prosperity and ensuring sustainable resource management, not geopolitical contests.

Third, Australia can learn from Japan’s experiences of dealing with three threatening powers at its doorstep—Russia, North Korea and China. All have intensified their campaign to throw Tokyo off balance. Australia needs to understand how Japan allocates its naval capabilities to control key maritime routes and areas. This can offer insights for its strategy of denial as well as its economic and diplomatic approaches to manage sensitive relations in a complex region.

Trump will likely demand that US allies do more, spend more and take greater risks, particularly in the military domain. AUKUS and military modernisation are essential components of Canberra’s national security strategy. But diplomacy must be at the centre of efforts to work with regional partners to maintain Australia’s status as a partner of choice.