Originally published on 11 August 2025.
If Australia needs greater defence self-reliance, it needs to field road-mobile ballistic missiles. To do that, it should partner with Israel or South Korea.
Those countries have such weapons in production, so they’re well placed to get some into our hands quickly and help us set up our own factories. They’re likely to keep developing ballistic missiles, so they should be open to cost-sharing technical collaboration with Australia.
Writing in The Strategist, eminent defence expert Ross Babbage argues that the new era of strategic uncertainty demands that the Australian Defence Force urgently field new, self-reliant and long-range strike capabilities in order to deliver ‘very strong independent deterrence’, even when facing a major power adversary. Among his proposed choices for achieving this are fielding road-mobile ballistic missiles with a range of 3,000 to 5,500 kilometres.
We cannot now exclude the possibility that in a future crisis the US may choose to stand aloof or put conditions on its support that undermine our sovereignty. So a high priority should be given to acquiring a select range of independent capabilities that …. should offer high leverage in changing an opponent’s strategic calculations, have long range, be very difficult for an opponent to counter, be affordable in scale and be produced domestically.
Road-mobile ballistic missiles would be a great choice. They’re hard to intercept, they strike over thousands of kilometres in just tens of minutes, they can attack land or sea targets without risking friendly lives, and they’re hard to find before launch if paired with decoys, camouflage and concealment. US and allied forces discovered the difficulty of hunting down Iraqi ground-launched missiles during the 1991 Gulf War.
Australian Army road-mobile ballistic missiles wouldn’t on their own be a complete deterrent to a powerful adversary considering attacking this country. But it would raise the cost of doing so and thereby make the potential adversary think twice.
Australian Army road-mobile ballistic missiles would need a very long range and an ability to navigate without access to satellite signals. They would home in on targets with onboard sensors.
The weapons would need penetration aids such as decoys and electronic countermeasures to increase warhead survivability against advanced defences. Each missile should have several independently targetable warheads, so that one missile could hit several targets.
Road-mobile launchers would also require encrypted links to battle networks for targeting data and fire orders. And Australian ballistic missiles should be paired with camouflage and concealment systems to increase their survivability.
The only viable way to achieve this capability quickly is to partner with a country that is already making ballistic missiles of approximately the range that we need.
Choosing a partner would be the first step. It must be allied or at least friendly and have no close ties to China, Russia or Iran. It must also have complete indigenous ballistic missile technology.
Acquiring a stopgap Australian ballistic missile capability from the partner would be a second step. This must include missiles, mobile launchers and spares plus limited modifications to link the launchers with ADF battle networks. To make all this in Australia, we would need access to the intellectual property, and local industry would have to be mobilised.
The third step would be to work out and execute a plan for ballistic missile development with the partner. The two countries would pool talent and resources with the aim of producing longer-range missiles with greater payload and survivability. Among possible improvements would be missiles that could rapidly deliver torpedoes against fleetingly detected submarines far from our shores.
Israel and South Korea have advantages over other potential contenders. Both have substantial experience in making their own sensors, warheads and rockets. Israel has the road-mobile Jericho 3 ballistic missile with a range of 4,800 to 6,500 kilometres. South Korea has the road-mobile Hyunmoo 5 ballistic missile with a range up to 5,000 kilometres. Covering the eastern Indian Ocean and all of the South China Sea, this is the sort of range we need.
Also, Israel and South Korea make their own air and missile defence systems, so they have a particularly strong understanding of the challenges in getting ballistic missiles to penetrate.
South Korea is a member of the Missile Technology Control Regime, an informal international understanding aimed at preventing the proliferation of long-range missiles and their technology. It isn’t legally binding, but if South Korea, one of its members, nonetheless felt unable to supply missiles and technology to Australia then we could turn to Israel, which isn’t a member.