As the global population grows, one of the most complex threats will be the challenge of feeding so many people. If the global community fails to address the drivers of food insecurity, coming generations will struggle to maintain peace and security.
To avoid this, Australia should lead efforts to reinforce the global food system while also supporting the countries likely to be most affected by population growth. At the same time, the government should strengthen Australia’s role as a major food exporter through greater commitment to our agricultural industry.
The United Nations projects that the global population will reach 10 billion by the early 2060s and peak at around 10.3 billion by the mid-2080s. It will then begin to fall as fertility rates decline. An increased human population with less arable land and reduced availability of agricultural inputs such as water and crop nutrients will only exacerbate the food security challenges we already face.
The regions that will see the greatest population increases are already struggling with the kind of stresses that worsen food insecurity, including supply chain, environmental, economic and institutional issues. In a world that produces enough food to feed every person, the main challenges facing food-insecure communities include food affordability, adequate supply chains and governments capable of delivering the economic and social prosperity that underpins and enables food security.
As well as this, many countries projected to undergo the greatest population increases over the next quarter of a century are, at present, fragile states. And because food insecurity can fuel civil unrest and armed conflict, the threat is even more dire in places with weak institutions and ongoing wars. This hunger–conflict nexus, where food insecurity contributes to instability and instability in turn exacerbates food insecurity, outlines the dangerous spiral that can set in when hunger prevails in a population.
While food insecurity needs to be tackled now to alleviate the suffering of the estimated 318 million people around the world who presently face crisis levels of hunger or worse, this work will require a long-term approach. Addressing the food security pressures of the 2050s to 2090s should be a top priority for the international community. Exacting commitments for the next 50 to 75 years is no easy task and requires policymakers to shake off the short-term thinking that comes with three-to-four-year election cycles. But if the world is to avoid descending into a hunger–conflict spiral, this is exactly what is required.
For Australia’s part, successive future federal governments must commit to both safeguarding Australia’s status as a net food exporter (around 70 percent of what we grow is exported) and strengthening the global food system. At home, this means supporting activities in two key agriculture domains: protection, including biosecurity, disaster resilience, financial risk and environmental stewardship; and growth, including marketing, workforce development, research funding and business development.
Abroad, Australia should see itself as a world leader in strengthening global food security through efforts such as developing training and education initiatives; strengthening global agricultural biosecurity; supporting good governance; advising on supply chain infrastructure; and improving global childhood nutrition. Australia’s National Food Council, established in December, should also explore our international food security contributions in its upcoming deliberations. These steps may seem ambitious, but given its strong performance in the sector, Australia has reason to aim high.
Another international priority should be strengthening relations with countries projected to have the largest populations by the middle of the century. Many of these nations will be in the Indo-Pacific, where Australian diplomatic investment is already high. However, it will also be necessary to renew relations with African countries projected to have among the highest populations in the world by 2050, such as Tanzania, Egypt, Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nigeria and Ethiopia. Close cooperation on food security with these nations will help to mitigate a hunger-conflict spiral, but can also deliver additional benefits, including through food trade and sharing of technical capability.
As a long-term strategic priority, the above steps will require genuine multi-partisan support. A secure and prosperous world must be a food-secure one. The inevitable national-interest question should be answered with no more than a review of the past five years of crises. Famine, supply chain insecurity, food production disruptions, mass displacement and household food insecurity have made the world a more dangerous place. How is any of that good for Australia?
Above all, food security is a human right, and no morally sound society should tolerate the prospect of human suffering. If Australia is to forge its place as a principled global leader in the coming decades, we must hold fast to a rules-based order that has at its core a moral commitment to human rights, peace and stability, backed by real action. Ensuring people don’t go hungry is a good way to do that.