Competition in the Pacific is being driven by Pacific islands’ vulnerability and foreign partners’ desire to grow or maintain region-shaping influence. Competition is not just occurring in the security space, but across economic partnerships, infrastructure development and political support.
In many of the countries analysed as part of our ‘Friends to all’ series, the current state of competition is highly influenced by the motivations of political and security leaders who are seeking to capitalise on opportunities to develop their countries without impinging upon their sovereignty. In a politically turbulent region, competition will ebb and flow with new leadership and new relationships, including changes of foreign partners’ governments.
Many countries in the Pacific want to remain ‘friends to all, enemies to none’. This doesn’t strictly apply to the security space, but Pacific leaders will often leave the door slightly ajar in the security sector to access the full gamut of benefits that partners have to offer in other sectors as well.
If Australia wants to ensure that its regional agreements effectively reduce competition in the security space, increase Pacific resilience and ensure a stable and secure near region for years to come, the agreements need to demonstrate lasting value beyond the political terms of Australian and Pacific leaders.
Australia should invest more in its highly effective and valuable long-term projects, such as the Pacific Maritime Support Program, to deliver more vessels, training and infrastructure across the region. This should include the delivery of more landing craft which will increase the capability of many Pacific security forces to address their greatest threat, climate change and natural disasters. Greater investment in maritime programs and infrastructure will also support Pacific islands to achieve their priority of decentralisation, enhancing community policing capabilities by improving connectivity to other islands and provinces.
Australia should also invest more time and resources into developing its defence and diplomatic staff’s cultural understanding, including learning Pacific languages and drawing on deep people-to-people networks of Pacific and Australian academics and civil society. Australia’s long-lasting value as a partner won’t be demonstrated by announceables, but by the ongoing support, maintenance and training associated with such initiatives, underpinned by effective and consistent engagement.
Regional security initiatives, such as the Pacific Policing Initiative and Pacific Response Group, need greater ongoing commitments for funding and training. Australia has committed $400 million over five years for the policing initiative but further support is needed. Australia should be advocating for other members of the Pacific Islands Forum to contribute support to these initiatives, such as New Zealand and France. Australia also needs to improve its strategic communication around the value and opportunities that these initiatives provide to the Pacific and their potential to reduce dependency on countries outside of the Pacific family.
While support from like-minded partners such as the United States, Britain and Japan would still be valuable for the Pacific and reduce the load on Australia, ideally it would be conducted in the first instance through regional initiatives and programs instead of bilaterally. Small, irregular bilateral support can sometimes fill a targeted gap effectively, but also often creates an administrative burden for time-poor Pacific decision makers and security forces. Japan and the US are particularly strong in their maritime support and training in the region. As they seek to grow partnerships in countries where they have a smaller diplomatic and security presence—namely across Polynesia and Melanesia—both countries should seek to support regional security initiatives first, such as further developing the Pacific Policing Initiative or Pacific Response Group. Obviously, these initiatives are Pacific owned and led, but Australia—as a member of both the Pacific Islands Forum and of these initiatives—can advocate for them to allow appropriate and tailored external support in the future as they potentially expand in size and scope to face growing regional security challenges.
Australia should continue to discuss stronger security agreements and treaties with interested Pacific island countries. These agreements lead to greater support and more effective and comprehensive partnerships while reducing the negative impacts of competition in the security space.
Where possible, Australia should avoid entangling non-security assistance and security guarantees when making agreements with Pacific island countries—as it has likely done in Papua New Guinea through the National Rugby League deal. Agreements in this form can pose a long-term risk to Australia’s credibility in Pacific countries if support is withdrawn or broader non-security assistance is viewed as conditional. If Australia does seek security guarantees, it should invest more time in strategic communication to showcase the importance of conditionality in protecting and maximising the value of Australia’s assistance.
Australia should not pursue agreements that open up opportunities for military basing in the Pacific as it would likely lead to heightened competition as multiple foreign partners—including China—race to develop bases in the region.
As of now, Australia is still the partner of choice for each of the nine countries analysed as part of the ‘Friends to all’ series. Australia’s partnerships with these countries have developed over decades and are based on shared values and wants for the Pacific region. However, this may not always be the case and Pacific politics remains unpredictable. By delivering well-coordinated and well-communicated support that builds regional capabilities and aligns with Australia’s vision of a stable and secure near region, Australia will give itself the best chance of remaining that partner of choice.
ASPI’s Friends to all: Competing for Pacific security partnerships series can be found here.