Australia’s vulnerability to fuel disruption remains one of the most significant risks to our national resilience. Gas-to-liquids technology, or GTL, offers a strategically sound and technically proven solution.

Despite years of policy reviews and public investment in stockpiles and refinery subsidies, we remain overwhelmingly reliant on imported refined fuels, with shrinking domestic capacity and limited onshore reserves. This is a national weakness that threatens critical infrastructure, commercial continuity and sovereign capability.

With Defence already under financial pressure, now is the time for the private sector, resource industry, and state and territory governments to step up and lead the commercial development of GTL production. If backed by clear policy signals and targeted infrastructure investment, Australia could establish an independent fuel capability within five years—one that delivers resilience, regional development and long-term export potential.

Australia’s dependence on imported fuel is deep and structural. Around 90 percent of our diesel and aviation fuel comes from refineries in North Asia. Our onshore diesel reserves are well below the International Energy Agency’s minimum threshold of 90 days. The country’s refining capacity has shrunk from seven major facilities in 2002 to just two. Meanwhile, rising geopolitical tensions and increasingly complex global supply chains have made maritime logistics more vulnerable to disruptions. Fuel security is primarily treated as a commercial issue, but that mindset is outdated and dangerous.

GTL converts natural gas into high-grade liquid fuels, including synthetic diesel, naphtha and jet fuel. Countries such as Qatar, Malaysia and South Africa operate commercial GTL facilities. Australia, with abundant natural gas reserves, particularly in northern Australia, has both the resource base and the industrial capability to deploy this technology at scale. What has been lacking is the political will and strategic clarity to act.

GTL provides the means to convert domestically sourced natural gas into high-quality synthetic fuels that meet or exceed existing performance standards. In a crisis scenario where global shipping routes are compromised by conflict, climate events or grey-zone disruption, GTL could provide a sovereign source of fuel for Defence, emergency response, logistics and critical infrastructure. More importantly, it would be onshore, accessible and under our control.

Beyond resilience, GTL offers strong environmental and economic credentials. Synthetic diesel and jet fuel produced through GTL are ultra-clean, containing almost no sulphur or particulates. Integrated with carbon capture and storage, GTL can form part of a low-emissions fuel mix, particularly as Australia moves towards net-zero. For sectors where electrification is not yet viable—such as Defence, heavy road freight, and aviation—GTL is a practical and strategic bridging technology. While hydrogen rightly receives attention for its long-term potential, GTL can be deployed more quickly and with greater certainty.

GTL also represents a powerful lever for nation-building in northern Australia. Co-locating GTL plants near existing gas basins in the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland would drive regional development. These facilities would create high-skill jobs, deepen industrial capability and generate sustained economic activity in areas that are both underdeveloped and strategically vital. By strengthening infrastructure and population retention in these regions, GTL would directly enhance the resilience of our northern approaches.

There is also export potential. As regional partners seek to reduce reliance on traditional fossil fuels, Australia could position itself as a supplier of ultra-clean synthetic fuels to markets such as Japan, South Korea and Pacific island nations. GTL fuels are already used in commercial aviation and defence applications globally. In the Indo-Pacific, where demand for high-quality fuels is growing, Australia has an opportunity to meet that demand through a sovereign capability that also supports national resilience.

Some may argue that GTL, particularly when integrated with carbon capture and storage, is a capital-intensive distraction from longer-term investments in hydrogen and renewables. But this is a false binary. The Australian Energy Market Operator’s GenCost 2050 modelling anticipates that natural gas will still account for 8 percent to 10 percent of Australia’s energy mix in a net-zero future, and carbon capture and storage is already a committed area of government investment. GTL with carbon capture and storage aligns with these strategic pathways, offering a controllable, point-source emission profile that is far more manageable than diffuse biofuel alternatives.

Unlike land-intensive biofuels, which often compete with food production and contribute to land-use change, GTL provides a scalable industrial fuel solution that preserves agricultural productivity while supporting climate and energy goals. Australia’s energy future will require multiple fuel sources, and strategic redundancy is not a weakness but a necessity.

GTL is not a replacement for hydrogen or electrification, but a complementary technology that fills capability gaps in the medium term and enhances our national resilience.

Leadership on GTL must come from a coalition of stakeholders, including state governments, the gas sector, infrastructure investors, and the federal industry and energy portfolios. These actors are well-positioned to assess commercial viability and attract investment. What they need is policy certainty, regulatory streamlining, and modest public co-investment to mitigate the risks associated with early-stage development.

This should start with formal recognition of GTL as a strategic capability. That recognition should be followed by targeted funding mechanisms to support feasibility studies, infrastructure planning and project acceleration in key regions. Defence should be a key customer and strategic partner, but not the sole driver. GTL must be understood as a piece of national infrastructure that supports Defence, industry and society alike.