What a week. Swiftly and decisively, and in uniquely Trumpian style, US President Donald Trump has restored US military credibility and deterrence with global repercussions.
The always mercurial president is often viewed as non-ideological and driven by pragmatism, so it’s dangerous to consider such a thing as a Trump Doctrine. Yet the decision to authorise military operations to destroy Iran’s nuclear weapons program on 22 June, enabled by Israeli intelligence and military operations, seems to represent such a doctrine.
The contours of this emerging Trump Doctrine are:
—The United States will not allow countries to threaten its core national interests and will respond with force if necessary;
—The US will help allies and partners with the means and the will to defend themselves; and
—The US expects allies and partners to take an active and commensurate role in shaping regional security orders in line with their comprehensive national power. Allies need to step up now.
Why is this important to Australia? The Trump Doctrine has restored deterrence and US credibility, and signalled resolve and strength to global adversaries including in the Indo-Pacific region. But it also represents a direct and difficult challenge to Australia’s government and its national security and defence policy settings.
Thanks to US and Israeli actions, the world is a safer place—for now. Not only are the conditions set for a complete reordering of the regional security order in the Middle East, but a clear signal has been sent to Chinese President Xi Jinping. It is now less likely that Xi will take the risk to achieve the ‘great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation’ by seeking to reunify Taiwan by force during the Trump administration. Trump’s decisiveness and willingness to use hard power will require China and its army to reflect deeply on the risk-versus-reward calculus of using military options to seize Taiwan in the next three years. This may make the Indo-Pacific a safer place in the short term. Conversely, Xi and the Chinese armed forces may conclude that the window of opportunity is closing even faster and take the bet that Trump will blink. Either way, the US clearly expects regional allies to contribute more to deterrence by spending on military capabilities and preparedness right now, during the window of peak danger, not in a decade or more.
The other key development of the past week was NATO members (except for Spain) agreeing to increase spending on defence and other security measures to 5 percent by 2035. The NATO announcement is Reaganesque, what the former president would have labelled ‘peace through strength’. It will certainly require the diligent application of another Reaganism: a ‘trust but verify’ approach to ensure that NATO members deliver on their commitment. Nonetheless, this is the Trump Doctrine in action. Australia is now a notable outlier among US allies, spending around 2 percent of GDP spent on defence with no indication of sizable increases in the near future.
The second and third legs of the Trump Doctrine present major headaches for an Australian government that has shown insufficient interest in credible defence policies or capabilities. The US now expects Australia to step up in a big way. The pressure will mount for the government to shore up a hollow and undersized Australian Defence Force, increase initiatives supporting US basing and access on Australian territory and rapidly develop new combat-credible capabilities that will contribute to deterrence in the Indo-Pacific. The government has not prepared the Australian public for this and seems almost reflexively opposed to these policies.
Whether and how to go to war will remain a choice of the government of the day, but providing for common defence and educating the public as to why hard choices must be made is core business for the government of any nation-state. Trump’s willingness to temporarily cut off aid to Ukraine to gain leverage and extract concessions should be viewed as the Trump Doctrine in practice. Australian policy makers should sit up and take notice.
So what now? Will Australia join the growing list of US allies and partners willing to develop the means to defend themselves and take a more active role in shaping the regional security order?
This is a decision for Australia and Australians, but you can bet Trump will turn his gaze southwards at some point. The Trump Doctrine is coming for Australia too. Hopefully this government is thinking about how to respond.