From the deserts of the Pilbara to the coastlines of Cape York, the future of Australia’s security and prosperity is already being written in the north. Yet it remains trapped in the structural constraints of a developing economy: volatile, under-capitalised and struggling to capture the value of its strategic assets. The choice before us is clear: treat investment in the north as a nation-building imperative or accept the growing economic, security and social risks of leaving it underdeveloped.
An ASPI report, released today, Northern Australia: securing a developing economy to secure a developed nation, reframes the debate. It strips away the outdated perception of the north as a periphery, recasting it instead as an indispensable engine of Australia’s security and prosperity. The evidence is stark: chronic underinvestment, fragile infrastructure and limited private-sector depth are eroding the north’s capacity to underpin national resilience precisely when its strategic weight is surging.
The strategic context could not be sharper. As the Indo-Pacific’s centre of gravity shifts northward, Australia’s defence posture, critical minerals supply chains, energy security, and disaster response capability are increasingly anchored in the Northern Territory, northern Queensland and northern Western Australia. The north produces all of Australia’s liquified natural gas, most of its metallic minerals, and a substantial share of its agricultural exports. It hosts critical Australian Defence Force and allied infrastructure. It sits at the intersection of strategic opportunity and strategic vulnerability.
But the region also faces the hallmarks of a developing economy: narrow industry concentration, limited local economic capture, workforce shortages, volatile growth, and severe service deficits. In the NT, just 57 percent of final demand comes from private-sector activity; in too many communities, year-round road access or even potable water can’t be taken for granted. The consequences are not abstract. They shape whether the ADF can sustain its forward presence, whether global markets can rely on our resource exports, and whether northern communities can thrive rather than simply endure.
The report’s central proposition is both simple and disruptive: northern Australia’s structural profile must be treated as a strategic diagnosis, not a policy inconvenience. That means designing bespoke, long-horizon investment frameworks that reflect its demographic, geographic and economic realities, not forcing the north into southern policy templates that don’t fit. It means learning from global examples, such as Qatar or Alberta, which have leveraged resource wealth into sovereign infrastructure, diversified economies and world-class liveability.
Critically, the report moves beyond diagnosis to a concrete plan for execution. It lays out a phased framework:
Phase 1—Strategic alignment (2026): Establish a National Northern Australia Investment Authority to integrate defence, infrastructure, and economic priorities; launch a dedicated Northern Australia Resilience and Capability Fund; and formalise an Intergovernmental Agreement on Northern Development.
Phase 2—Localisation and leverage (2027–2029): Embed enforceable local value-generation requirements into all major projects; establish regional capability centres in key northern hubs; scale Indigenous-led economic development; and incentivise industry to invest in downstream processing and logistics.
Phase 3—National integration (2029–2035): Fully embed the north into Australia’s national decision-making, innovation ecosystems, and population strategies, ensuring its resilience and prosperity are core to the nation’s own.
The underlying logic is clear: without deliberate and coordinated action, the north’s vulnerabilities will deepen, and down the track, Australia will pay a higher price, economically, strategically and socially. But with deliberate and coordinated action, we have the chance to transform the region into a secure, liveable and globally competitive powerhouse.
This is not a call for sentimental frontier romanticism, nor for open-ended public spending. It’s a sovereign investment strategy, grounded in evidence and focused on returns: resilient supply chains, enhanced deterrence, higher national productivity and stronger regional communities. Every dollar spent on targeted infrastructure, workforce capability and local enterprise in the north is a dollar spent on securing the nation’s long-term independence and prosperity.
In a more dangerous and competitive world, the ability to mobilise northern Australia’s strategic advantages will be a key determinant of Australia’s security and economic standing. That requires aligning the incentives of governments, industry and communities, not through fragmented programs and short political cycles, but through a shared national mission.
This report is a roadmap for that mission. It’s blunt in its assessment: the time for studies is over. What’s needed now is commitment, capability and coordinated execution.
The future of the north isn’t a regional concern; it’s a national choice. If we choose to act, we can build a north that anchors Australia’s security, drives our prosperity, and demonstrates the power of nation-building in the 21st century. If we don’t, we risk leaving our most strategically vital region underprepared for the challenges and opportunities ahead.
I encourage you to read the report, absorb its recommendations and decide where you stand. Because the choices we make now will shape the future of northern Australia—and with it, the resilience of the nation.