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Pick a number. Now add five and double it…
Posted By Andrew Davies on August 23, 2013 @ 06:00
In one of my earlier pieces I mentioned the cost growth experienced by the Apollo program. It’s worth digging a little deeper into that story. In a wonderful paper on cost estimation (yes, I need to get out more) for a NASA symposium*, this story is told:
Apollo is often painted as a successful program that came close to its initial 1961 [schedule] estimate for a 1967 moon landing. [The] 1958 Air Force estimate… was 1.5 billion with completion targeted in 1965. The ‘actual’ historical events went something like this. The NASA cost estimating gurus in 1961 projected an amount close to $7 Billion to do the entire program. This figure was apparently padded to $10-$12 Billion by management prior to giving that estimate to James Webb, the NASA Administrator. Mr. Webb (within hours of receiving the $10-$12 Billion figure) placed an ‘administrator's discount’ on NASA’s ability to predict costs with due precision and by the stroke of his own pen, changed the estimate to $20 billion and submitted it to Vice President Linden B. Johnson. In the words of Robert Seamans Jr., (the Associate Administrator at the time) ‘We were aghast’! This cavalier beginning describes how Apollo's original fiscal requirements arrived at the steps of the Capitol and was subsequently blessed by Congress.
If this was to cost twice the number we have before us, be delivered in twice the time estimated and with only 75% of the capability, would we still think it’s a good idea?
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[1] Image: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/space-shuttle1.jpg
[2] one of my earlier pieces: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/waiting-longer-for-more-project-timelines-then-and-now/
[3] Augustine’s 23rd Law: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/aspi-recommends-augustines-laws-2/
[4] projects set in train by the 2000 defence white paper: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/thirteen-years-and-counting-the-delivery-of-the-2000-defence-white-paper/
[5] ANAO’s reporting of DMO data: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/on-projects-and-performance/
[6] Projects of Concern list: http://www.minister.defence.gov.au/2013/05/10/minister-for-defence-materiel-minister-for-defence-materiel-chairs-projects-of-concern-summit/
[7] front page of the newspapers: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/labor-warned-of-air-warfare-destroyer-delays-and-blowouts/story-fn59niix-1226064452880
[8] reference class comparison: http://arxiv.org/abs/1302.3642
[9] understands this principle: http://www.lowyinterpreter.org/post/2009/11/16/In-defence-of-the-JSF.aspx
[10] here: https://www.aspistrategist.org.auC:\Users\AndrewDavies\AppData\Local\Microsoft\Windows\Temporary Internet Files\Content.Outlook\HGGI5QYH\science.ksc.nasa.gov\shuttle\nexgen\Nexgen_Downloads\Butts_NASA
[11] NASA: http://blogs.pennmanor.net/hstsa/nasa/nasa-space-project/