President Trump: four scenarios

At ASPI’s recent State of the Region Masterclass (PDF) I detailed some “alternate futures” for the Trump administration. In truth no-one, not even Trump himself, can be sure how his presidency will evolve. The future …

From the bookshelf: Lenin on the Train

The great Russian writer, Vladimir Nabokov, probably described VI Lenin best, when he observed that the Bolshevik leader’s ideology was like a pail of milk of human kindness, with a dead rat at the bottom. …

At the pointy end, better is bigger

In a recent Strategist post, we discussed the pros and cons of different sized unmanned maritime aerial systems. We came down on the side of larger systems. Geoff Slocombe then took issue with our position, …

Out of time in North Korea

There is a growing consensus that the first genuine crisis of Donald Trump’s presidency could involve North Korea and, more specifically, its ability to place a nuclear warhead on one or more ballistic missiles possessing …

Big Oz bets on Asia (part one)

The Foreign Policy White Paper to be produced this year must place big bets in Asia. The multi-purpose bets must imagine expanded interests and seek insurance against a protectionist US president who’s sceptical of alliances. In our …

ASPI suggests

Ahoy, loyal readers. The Trump–Russia story continues to roll on, or does it? A few voices have piped up in the last week or so to warn Trump’s critics/the media about the difference between finding …

National security wrap

The Beat Targeting motorcycle outlaws Anti-bikie detectives in the Echo Taskforce arrested 21 people affiliated with the Comancheros motorcycle gang in Melbourne this week, who’ve been connected with previous explosions, shootings and fires. Police seized …

A normative approach to preventing cyberwarfare

A series of episodes in recent years—including Russia’s cyber interventions to skew the United States’ 2016 presidential election toward Donald Trump, the anonymous cyber-attacks that disrupted Ukraine’s electricity system in 2015, and the ‘Stuxnet’ virus …

Can the US and Russia devise a plan for Syria?

The advent of a new administration in Washington, one with the declared intention to improve relations with Moscow, presents an opportunity for a fresh approach to resolve the dire problem of Syria. Currently a grim …

Cyber wrap

It’s now been a week since WikiLeaks released a cache of documents exposing the CIA’s cyber espionage tools and techniques. The discussion has this week turned to how the documents got into WikiLeaks’ hands. The …

How much Europe can Europe tolerate?

This month the European Union will celebrate the 60th anniversary of its founding treaty, the Treaty of Rome, which established the European Economic Community. There certainly is much to celebrate. After centuries of war, upheaval, …