World Order 2.0

For nearly four centuries, since the Peace of Westphalia in 1648 ended the Thirty Years’ War in Europe, the concept of sovereignty—the right of countries to an independent existence and autonomy—has formed the core of …

Trump’s Taiwan instinct: a threat to peace?

Donald Trump has signaled his interest in using America’s ‘One China’ policy as a bargaining chip in negotiations with China over economic policy (including currency manipulation). While this ‘instinct’ of his isn’t without merit, it …

We’ll be back tomorrow…

It’s a public holiday here in Australia, so Team Strategist will be back tomorrow to bring you more considered analysis on Australia’s defence and security issues after a short break. Until then, if you haven’t …

JASTA: a poison pill for President Trump

In its dying moments the 114th Congress passed a bill, the Justice Against Sponsors of Terrorism Act, and then, for the only time in Barack Obama’s presidency, overrode his veto. The legislation negates the international legal principle …

China’s debt-trap diplomacy

If there is one thing at which China’s leaders truly excel, it is the use of economic tools to advance their country’s geostrategic interests. Through its $1 trillion ‘one belt, one road’ initiative, China is …

DWP: Defence With Partisanship

In his usual fashion, Peter Edwards’ recent report ‘Defence White Papers at 40’ offers an elegant, illuminating and historically grounded review. Edwards is right to cast his attention to this habit of government, noting that …

After Rafsanjani: what lies ahead for Iran’s reformers?

The death on 8 January of Iran’s former President, Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, could weaken the political influence of Iran’s reformists and moderates, and potentially threaten President Hassan Rouhani’s re-election bid at this year’s presidential election …

Trumping Australia’s American alliance

Donald Trump will stress test America’s alliance with Australia. He’s going to pressure lots of other areas—the alliance will get its share. Australia will strive to confine disagreements. Canberra wants differences to be matters of …

The Strategist Six: Endy Bayuni

Welcome to The Strategist Six, a feature that provides a glimpse into the thinking of prominent academics, government officials, military officers, reporters and interesting individuals from around the world. 1. We’ve seen a steady rise …

Pax Americana in the time of Trump

Since he launched his presidential bid more than 18 months ago, Donald Trump has confounded prediction and eluded persuasive analysis. On Saturday morning (4am AEST), at the age of 70, he takes the office so …

Trump and strategic change in Asia

It’s 20 January, Inauguration Day in the United States, and nobody now doubts that we’re destined to live in what the Chinese would call ‘interesting times’. The new president’s campaign rhetoric strongly intimated that under …

The industry cart and the strategic horse

The Australian Naval Institute recently published the inaugural edition of its Australian Naval Review. I was pleased to be asked to contribute to the first issue, and subscribers to the Institute will be able to …

Russia’s imperial instinct

Russia is once again at the center of policy debates in many Western capitals. And for the third time in a row, a new US president will start his administration with ambitions to improve bilateral …