The DPRK and a nuclear no-first-use policy

July has been a busy month for North Korean diplomats, with another round of US sanctions, and confirmation that South Korea will deploy US THAAD anti-missile systems. The recent North Korean 7th Workers’ Party Congress …

The intelligence jigsaw

I’d like to add a different perspective to the post on the limitations of intelligence that was offered by my colleague, John Coyne. I write as someone who worked at the Office of National Assessments …

More Europe, less Brussels

The failed coup in Turkey has reminded us—as though a reminder was needed—of the once-inconceivable stability that the European Union has brought to Europe. But if the post-Brexit EU is to survive, it’ll need to …

The Strategist Six: Dewi Fortuna Anwar

Welcome to The Strategist Six, a feature that provides a glimpse into the thinking of prominent academics, government officials, military officers, reporters and interesting individuals from around the world. 1. How do you think Indonesia’s …

The Three Brexiteers

Any hopes that the swiftly-engineered coronation of Theresa May meant the Brits were going soft on Brexit have been squashed by the instant elevation of a trio of hardened eurosceptics—Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David …

The third offset: opportunities for Australia

The US Department of Defense’s third offset strategy has prompted much discussion since it was first announced in November 2014. The strategy, which has been allocated a US$18 billion budget, aims to ‘offset’ growing Chinese …

China’s next step in the South China Sea

The findings of the South China Sea Arbitration conducted at The Hague refutes China claim of indisputable sovereignty, and invalidates the ‘nine-dash line’ as a mechanism to delineate that claim—a heavy defeat for China. As …

Cyber wrap

Yesterday’s appointment of Malcolm Turnbull’s new ministry has followed through with the commitment made in last year’s Cyber Security Strategy to create a ministerial position for cyber security. Dan Tehan from Victoria has added Minister …

From the bookshelf: The Maisky Diaries

The Maisky Diaries: Red Ambassador to the Court of St. James’s 1932-1943, edited by Gabriel Gorodetsky. Fitzroy MacLean’s superb autobiography, Eastern Approaches, is most famously recalled for his exploits in the Balkans, during the Second …

Risk communication: talking at or talking with communities?

Early warnings and communication with at-risk communities before and during crises have been central to recent post-disaster evaluations in Australia. Effective risk communication ideally results from engagement with those communities before, during and after emergencies …

A 10 year plan: an Air Force strategy

Despite having a range of classified and unclassified strategic level documents, an unprecedented capability modernisation program, and a strong record of operational success, the RAAF has lacked a coherent document that outlined where we are …

Fromelles: an Australian tragedy

The Australian Imperial Force (AIF) proved fortunate in being spared the first day of fighting on 1 July, 1916 as the British Army attacked the Somme in northern France. That first day of the Somme …

The puzzle of security sector reform in Indonesia

In his book on the transformation of the Indonesian Armed Forces (TNI) Lieutenant General (Retired) Agus Wijojo—now Governor of the National Resilience College in Jakarta—outlined the security sector reforms (SSR) undertaken by the TNI since …

Turkey’s baffling coup

Military coups—successful or otherwise—follow a predictable pattern in Turkey. Political groups—typically Islamists—deemed by soldiers to be antagonistic to Kemal Ataturk’s vision of a secular Turkey gain increasing power. Tensions rise, often accompanied by violence on …