The threat spectrum
Posted By
Joshua Dunne, Stephan Robin and Ben Stevens
on April 1, 2022 @ 13:30
Planet A
The first-ever Middle East and North Africa
Climate Week, organised by UN Climate Change, has just wrapped up in Dubai. The event followed on from last year’s global effort on
regional collaboration on climate.
Urgent action is needed to support adaptation to climate change in the water-poor Middle East. Strategies should address regional climate modelling that warns
temperatures could reach up to 60°C during heatwaves, exceeding the
‘human survivability’ threshold.
The disruption that climate change will bring to food and water systems is expected to further fuel
regional conflicts, the growth of
extremist groups and the
mass displacement of populations. Collaboration between regional partners on climate is therefore critical to the security of North African and Middle Eastern nations.
As an example of what can be achieved, EcoPeace, an Israeli–Palestinian non-governmental organisation, recently
brokered an energy-for-water agreement between Israel, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The UAE and Jordan will supply renewable energy to Israel in exchange for water from Israel’s desalination plants.
Democracy watch
Last week,
the US officially declared that the Myanmar military committed genocide against the country’s Rohingya Muslim minority, five years after more than
740,000 Rohingya fled Myanmar for Bangladesh in successive waves of displacement.
Despite
calls from human rights advocates, the Trump administration declined to refer to the atrocities as genocide, instead describing the operation as ‘
ethnic cleansing’, which is less well defined in international law. The decision was based partly on the
prediction that the Myanmar civil administration was transitioning towards democracy, a hope that was largely dashed after a military coup toppled the democratically elected government last year.
Rohingya refugees welcomed the Biden administration’s decision,
but warned that unless it’s followed by concrete steps and actions, the suffering will continue. Given ‘
the very little possibility’ of Myanmar’s domestic legal proceedings delivering justice, the change in language
lays the groundwork to hold the military junta to account at the international level.
Information operations
The British government
has provided the BBC with emergency funding of £4.1 million ($7.2 million) to support its Ukrainian- and Russian-language news services. The additional resources are
intended to help the national broadcaster combat Russian propaganda and disinformation campaigns.
The announcement came just days after the UK Ministry of Defence
accused the Russian government of being behind several propaganda videos featuring doctored clips of British cabinet ministers. The BBC’s revenue comes mainly from a licensing fee that has twice
undergone major revisions by Conservative governments in recent years. In January, the government
confirmed the freezing of the BBC’s licencing fee, expected to amount to a budget
cut of £2 billion ($3.5 billion) over the next six years.
The emergency funding reflects a growing awareness of the important role public broadcasters
play in countering disinformation narratives, especially those propagated by authoritarian regimes.
Follow the money
Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) agents in Moscow have seized millions of dollars worth of Swiss-made Audemars Piguet watches. While Russian authorities cited customs offences as the official reason behind the seizure, Swiss government officials say it was likely a retaliation for sanctions Switzerland imposed following the invasion of Ukraine.
When the sanctions were first introduced in February, Audemars Piguet, one of the biggest Swiss watchmakers,
suspended exports and ‘temporarily’ closed its two Moscow outlets. In March, following the imposition of additional Western sanctions and withdrawals of foreign businesses from Russia, President Vladimir Putin
signed a law that allowed the government to seize hundreds of commercial US- and European-owned aircraft.
While it’s not clear whether the watch seizure was another instance of the enforcement of Putin’s new asset-seizure law or some form of undisciplined FSB looting, it highlights just some of the challenges faced by the many foreign companies attempting to withdraw from Russia.
Terror byte
Despite repeatedly preaching about the importance of his
campaign to ‘denazify’ Ukraine, Vladimir Putin has reportedly deployed
thousands of mercenaries to try to break the invasion’s
‘burgeoning stalemate’.
Social media reports have corroborated the presence of mercenaries in eastern Ukraine, and UK
intelligence suggests that Putin has brought
the Wagner Group into the war. The Wagner Group is a Russia-based private paramilitary force that has been linked to
far-right and white-supremacist elements worldwide. While private militaries are prohibited by Russian law, the Wagner Group has represented an
‘unofficial foreign policy tool of the Kremlin’ since 2014, illegally operating in
countries including Syria, Yemen and Libya.
The Wagner Group’s unorthodox skillset allows
Putin to pursue objectives unattainable through conventional military tactics. The company’s affinity for covert operations
poses legitimate threats to Ukraine’s military technology and possibly even President Volodymyr Zelensky’s life.
Joshua Dunne, Stephan Robin and Ben Stevens are research interns at ASPI. Image: Leon Neal/Getty Images.
Article printed from The Strategist: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au
URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-threat-spectrum-31/
[1] Climate Week: https://unfccc.int/MENA-CW2022
[2] regional collaboration on climate: https://unfccc.int/news/regional-collaboration-fosters-climate-ambition
[3] temperatures could reach up to 60°C: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41612-021-00178-7
[4] ‘: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/8/climate-hotspot-what-60c-means-for-the-middle-east
[5] regional conflicts: https://blogs.worldbank.org/arabvoices/climate-change-conflict-mena
[6] extremist groups: https://www.dw.com/en/how-climate-change-paved-the-way-to-war-in-syria/a-56711650
[7] mass displacement of populations: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-conflict-arabspring-idUSKCN1PH23B
[8] brokered an energy-for-water agreement: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/water-for-energy-deal-could-help-prevent-climate-conflict-in-the-middle-east/
[9] the US officially declared: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/20/us/politics/us-rohingya-genocide.html
[10] 740,000 Rohingya: https://www.unhcr.org/rohingya-emergency.html
[11] calls from human rights advocates: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-recognizes-myanmars-atrocities-rohingya-genocide/story?id=83582997
[12] ethnic cleansing: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-myanmar-politics-usa-idUSKBN2BH1B5
[13] but warned: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/03/24/us-genocide-designation-rohingya-myanmar-prevention-atrocity/
[14] the very little possibility: https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/03/blinken-myanmar-genocide-rohingya-muslims/627124/
[15] lays the groundwork: https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/03/24/myanmar-genocide-rohingya-us-recognition/
[16] has provided: https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-60852833
[17] intended to help: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/bbc-gets-emergency-funding-to-fight-russian-disinformation
[18] accused the Russian government: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/ben-wallace-defence-secretary-ministry-of-defence-kremlin-cabinet-b2041292.html
[19] undergone major revisions: https://www.theguardian.com/media/2022/jan/16/bbc-licence-fee-to-be-abolished-in-2027-and-funding-frozen
[20] confirmed the freezing: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-01-18/bbc-cuts-biggest-threat-yet/100762190
[21] cut of £2 billion: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10406491/Nadine-Dorries-hits-BBC-2bn-funding-cut-freezes-annual-licence-fee-charge-2024.html
[22] play in countering: http://assembly.coe.int/nw/xml/XRef/Xref-XML2HTML-EN.asp?fileid=25406&lang=en
[23] suspended exports: https://www.watchpro.com/audemars-piguet-and-richard-mille-close-moscow-boutiques/
[24] signed a law that allowed the government to seize: https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/16/business/russia-aircraft-seizure/index.html
[25] campaign to ‘denazify’: https://time.com/6154493/denazification-putin-ukraine-history-context/
[26] thousands of mercenaries: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/articles/2022-03-28/russia-deploys-wagner-group-to-eastern-ukraine-in-risky-attempt-to-break-stalemate
[27] ‘burgeoning stalemate’: https://www.usnews.com/news/world-report/articles/2022-03-25/russia-abandons-march-on-kyiv-focuses-embattled-troops-instead-on-donbas
[28] Social media: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/20/russian-mercenaries-in-ukraine-linked-to-far-right-extremists
[29] intelligence: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/british-intelligence-says-russias-wagner-group-deployed-eastern-ukraine-2022-03-28/
[30] the Wagner Group: https://inews.co.uk/news/world/wagner-group-what-russian-mercenearies-ukraine-president-zelensky-putin-1489364
[31] ‘unofficial foreign policy tool of the Kremlin’: https://www.theguardian.com/news/audio/2022/mar/15/the-wagner-group-shadow-mission-ukraine-podcast
[32] countries: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/mali-russia-wagner/
[33] Putin to pursue objectives: https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/4000-thugs-hire-murderous-wagner-26365610
[34] poses legitimate threats: https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10648653/Putins-assassination-squad-Wagner-Group-sanctioned.html