- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
The uncertain geopolitics and geoeconomics of the federal election
Posted By Graeme Dobell on April 8, 2019 @ 06:00
Since the White Paper’s release, many of the international trends identified within it have intensified – rising nationalism and geo-political competition, anti-globalisation and trade protectionism, a shift in power in the Indo-Pacific without precedent in Australia’s modern history, rapid technological advances that are changing the way economies and societies work, and mega trends such as climate change and urbanisation. These trends are testing Australia’s policy settings and demanding new efforts in several areas.
Since the release of the 2016 Defence White Paper, some strategic trends have accelerated – arguably faster than was anticipated when the White Paper was drafted. Defence responded to some of these trends, along with other agencies, in devising new measures under the Pacific Step-Up announced by Government in late 2018.
There have been recent signs that an escalation of trade tensions between the US and China is less likely; however, trade policy uncertainty remains elevated between a number of economies and global trade growth has eased. This uncertain outlook for trade tensions has been weighing on confidence, new export orders and investment intentions. Escalation of tensions would be expected to negatively affect growth in a number of countries including in Australia’s major trading partners. Conversely, a resolution of tensions could result in global growth that is stronger than forecast.
Over the longer term, unfavourable demographics will constrain potential growth rates in some of the world’s major economies. Slower productivity growth could also limit productive capacity in many countries. Future global productivity growth will depend on the dispersion of technology, the mobility of capital and the degree of openness and competition maintained across economies.
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[1] 2016 defence white paper: http://www.defence.gov.au/whitepaper/docs/2016-defence-white-paper.pdf
[2] 2017 foreign policy white paper: https://www.fpwhitepaper.gov.au/
[3] budget document: https://dfat.gov.au/about-us/corporate/portfolio-budget-statements/Documents/2019-20-foreign-affairs-and-trade-pbs.pdf
[4] top-of-mind issue for the era: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-new-era-of-great-power-competition%ef%bb%bf/
[5] first priority: https://www.minister.defence.gov.au/minister/cpyne/speeches/address-australian-financial-review-national-security-intelligence-summit
[6] here: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/national-security-wrap-budget-special/
[7] continues to deliver as expected: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/boring-is-the-new-black-defence-budget-2019-20/
[8] budget statement: http://www.defence.gov.au/Budget/19-20/2019-20_Defence_PBS_00_Complete.pdf
[9] Pacific Step-Up: https://dfat.gov.au/geo/pacific/engagement/Pages/stepping-up-australias-pacific-engagement.aspx
[10] directly challenged: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/china-challenges-australia-in-the-south-pacific/
[11] China: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/australia-china-relations-effort-must-reflect-strategic-reality/
[12] Pacific pivot: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-purposes-of-the-pacific-pivot/
[13] international economic outlook : https://www.budget.gov.au/2019-20/content/bp1/download/bp1_bs2.pdf