After 100 days of action, US President Donald Trump’s national security strategy is coming into focus. His second presidency appears to embrace a ‘peace through strength’ approach, as first suggested by US Senator Roger Wicker in 2024. This translates into US power focusing on only a few main tasks through ruthless prioritisation, enhancing national security without overstretching resources. Gone is the era of Pax Americana, where the United States underwrote the global liberal order. A new framework emerges: Pact Americana. Soft power is gone, alliances are transactional, security guarantees are conditional and US strength dictates the rules of engagement.
Six pillars seem poised to define Trump’s strategy.
First, Trump will likely seek his own variant of a Monroe Doctrine; dominating the Western Hemisphere to the shores of China, while reducing footprints elsewhere. Expect aggressive moves to counter the growing influence of China and Russia in Latin America, particularly regarding mineral extraction and critical infrastructure. At the same time, Trump seeks a reset with Russia—possibly lifting sanctions to encourage cooperation in energy, Arctic security and counterterrorism. This realignment reflects an effort to prevent Moscow from becoming a full client of Beijing, though the approach has drawn scepticism from NATO allies.
Second, Trump’s emphasis on homeland security stands to reshape the US’s global military posture. Troop reductions in Europe and the Middle East could accompany a strategic rebasing of forces back to the continental US and across the Pacific. Expect significant investment in the US Northern Command, expanding its mission from the Arctic to beyond the southern border, with a focus on combatting Chinese-linked drug cartels trafficking fentanyl. Technology will play a key role, with AI-enabled drones, missile defences and advanced sensors becoming the backbone of a reinforced Western Hemisphere defence.
Third, Trump’s second administration means strictly transactional diplomacy. Alliances and security guarantees will be conditioned on direct, measurable returns, such as arms purchases, access to critical minerals or favourable trade terms. Open-ended security assistance, including to Ukraine, Kosovo and Palestine, will likely vanish. A doctrine of ‘minerals for military assistance’ may emerge, tying US support to resource extraction deals, especially across Latin America and Africa. Foreign military sales will be central to US diplomacy. Taiwan, for instance, will be expected to buy more weapons to preserve a US security umbrella.
Fourth, Trump is likely to pursue a more hardline Middle East policy. Trump will likely abandon the two-state solution, instead reinforcing US support for Israel. Regional stability will be pursued through arms deals with Arab partners, ensuring that Saudi Arabia, Egypt and the United Arab Emirates remain firmly in the US camp. Iran will face mounting pressure. A nuclear breakout by Tehran could prompt US-backed nuclear proliferation among Iran’s regional rivals, such as Saudi Arabia or Turkey. Trump’s willingness to disrupt decades of non-proliferation norms reflects a realist approach: regional balances of power matter more than diplomatic niceties.
Fifth, expect an intensified US campaign to economically and technologically isolate China. Tariffs, export controls and financial pressure will aim to sever supply chains in critical sectors such as semiconductors, pharmaceuticals and rare earth minerals. Trump will deepen ties with Indo-Pacific countries—including India, Japan, Vietnam, South Korea and Australia—to create alternative supply networks and enhance regional defence postures. Allied cooperation will be non-negotiable. Nations reluctant to curb Chinese tech influence, such as through restrictions on Huawei or TikTok, may face tariffs and reduced security cooperation.
Finally, it’s likely that the Pentagon will prioritise a lethal, no-frills military focused on power projection. This means doubling down on lethality and prioritising warfighting capabilities over administrative overhead. Expect aggressive investment in unmanned systems, hypersonic weapons, nuclear modernisation and space-based surveillance. Naval expansion will likely become a signature initiative, with the goal of growing the fleet from around 350 to 600 ships to counter China’s rising maritime advantage. However, Trump’s strategy must recognise that future wars will be fought not just with missiles and ships, but also in the cognitive domain. Dominance in information operations, cyber warfare and AI-enhanced influence campaigns will be essential to deterring China’s non-kinetic hybrid threats.
In sum, Trump’s forthcoming national security strategy will be a strategic gut punch to the post-Cold War order. Transactionalism will replace multilateral idealism. Alliances must deliver tangible benefits or risk marginalisation. Security guarantees will be earned—not assumed—through arms deals, trade incentives and resource access.
The ripple effects means Europe may hedge toward China. Indo-Pacific nations will face growing pressure to militarise. But for Trump, that’s the point: forcing nations to choose between adapting to the US’s power-first model or risking irrelevance.
This isn’t isolationism; it’s strategic dominance by design. Under Trump, gone is ‘Team America: World Police’. No longer a benign hegemon, the US will be setting the terms, writing the rules and unapologetically pursuing its interests. Pax Americana has ended, Pact Americana emerges: bring something to the table, or you don’t get a seat.