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Typhoon relief is an opportunity for ASEAN to promote peace in Myanmar

Posted By and on October 17, 2024 @ 06:00

Typhoon Yagi was a disaster for Myanmar last month, killing hundreds. But some good can come from it if the Association of Southeast Asian Nations uses the occasion to promote peace in the strife-torn country.

To facilitate humanitarian relief, military government and its armed oppositions have to negotiate a ceasefire. ASEAN should link international relief efforts to broader peacebuilding initiatives, creating a foundation for a longer-term dialogue.

If ASEAN acts decisively to mediate Myanmar conflict, it will not only help stabilise the country but also reaffirm the organisation’s role as an effective regional platform. Also, ASEAN members need to help resolve Myanmar’s civil war because the country has become fertile ground for hybrid threats and crime that present problems for the region.

Production and trafficking of synthetic drugs, primarily methamphetamine, thrives in Myanmar, in part with support by triads from China. Shan, an eastern state, is at the centre [1] of the illegal trade. Armed ethnic groups are heavily involved in these activities, using the proceeds to fund their resistance to the government while facilitating transnational criminal operations that have spilled [2] over into neighbouring Laos.

Another issue is illegal arms trafficking, with weapons being smuggled into Myanmar from conflict zones in southern Thailand, the Philippines, Syria and Afghanistan. A sniper rifle costs as little as US$220 in Myanmar, though ammunition is expensive. Meanwhile, cyber scam compounds are mushrooming within Myanmar’s porous borders, operated by transnational criminal networks.

And if Myanmar’s domestic conflict remains unresolved, the strategically located country could become a proxy battleground as the United States, China, Russia and other powers vie for influence in the Indo-Pacific. China already has influence over certain non-state actors in Myanmar, and its manoeuvres could destabilise ASEAN unity.

So, failure to effectively engage in peace negotiation with Myanmar so far not only diminishes ASEAN’s credibility but also weakens its ability to counter external pressures and address members’ internal strife.

Myanmar was suffering a humanitarian crisis even before Typhoon Yagi hit from the east. Floods and landslides resulting from the typhoon displaced hundreds of thousands [3] in the Mandalay region and overwhelmed the country’s already fragile relief infrastructure. As millions [4] remain in dire need of humanitarian aid, the Myanmar junta has called for dialogue [5] at the end of September, offering a glimmer of hope for conflict resolution.

A 2005 precedent shows that a natural disaster can be a catalyst for peace. The eastern Indonesian province Aceh struggled to recover from a terrible tsunami in late 2004 that created common ground for both the Indonesian government and Aceh Freedom Movement to start peace talks, as both sides focused on helping victims rather than fighting.

ASEAN should take the chance by pushing for a ceasefire as a condition for improving international relief efforts, and it should aim to work from the ceasefire towards broader peacebuilding as a foundation for negotiations between the two sides over the longer term.

Indonesia [6] and Thailand [7] have initiated dialogues to address Myanmar’s conflict, but if ASEAN deployed pooled resources of its members, it might achieve more. In a joint statement [8] issued at the ASEAN leaders summit on 9 October, the member states said the association would continue engagement with Myanmar. The next extended informal consultation between Myanmar delegations, the special envoy and interested member states is scheduled for December in Thailand.

Pre-coup ASEAN has already provided humanitarian assistance in Myanmar, through its ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on Disaster Management in Rakhine, a southwestern state. Moving forward, ASEAN can gather contributions from its member states, such as Thailand [9] and Malaysia [10], and ensure that aid reaches the most vulnerable while it simultaneously pushes for meaningful political dialogue.

ASEAN needs to continue its implementation of the Five-Point Consensus [8], which seeks an immediate end of violence, dialogue among all parties, appointment of a special envoy and the parties in Myanmar facilitating humanitarian assistance and allowing the envoy to visit Myanmar to meet all of them. ASEAN must also enhance its engagement with influential actors, including China, India, Japan and the United States.

A unified ASEAN stance will be critical in preventing any single power from dominating Myanmar’s political landscape, thus preserving regional stability and the association’s strategic role in the region.

Finally, enhancing regional security through cooperation should be a priority. ASEAN must bolster intelligence-sharing and joint security initiatives to address threats emanating from Myanmar. Collaboration with international partners, such as with the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, will be critical in dismantling criminal networks and curbing the influence of malicious actors involved in the conflict.



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URLs in this post:

[1] centre: https://unodc.org/roseap/2023/06/transnational-crime-cross-border/story.html

[2] spilled: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/11/7/cheaper-than-beer-laos-meth-prices-plummet-as-myanmar-chaos-fuels-trade

[3] hundreds of thousands: https://www.google.com/search?q=typhoon+yagi+impact+in+myanmar&oq=typhoon+yagi+impact+in+myanmar&gs_lcrp=EgZjaHJvbWUyBggAEEUYOTIHCAEQIRigAdIBCTExNjc0ajBqNKgCALACAA&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[4] millions: https://www.aljazeera.com/gallery/2024/9/18/hundreds-killed-in-floods-as-typhoon-yagi-wreaks-havoc-in-myanmar

[5] dialogue: https://www.straitstimes.com/world/myanmar-junta-urges-armed-opposition-to-join-political-fold-in-elections

[6] Indonesia: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/indonesia-hosts-international-meeting-myanmar-with-un-junta-rivals-sources-say-2024-10-04/

[7] Thailand: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/3/14/thailand-laos-try-to-make-junta-presentable-amid-asean-myanmar-inertia

[8] statement: https://asean.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/4-Final_Review-and-Decision-of-the-ASEAN-LEADERS-on-the-5PC-2024.pdf

[9] Thailand: https://www.mfa.go.th/en/content/ps260824-2?cate=5d5bcb4e15e39c306000683e

[10] Malaysia: https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2024/10/02/malaysians-brave-choppy-waters-to-send-aid-to-myanmar-flood-victims

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