- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
The astonishing David Hale
Posted By Peter Jennings on January 27, 2016 @ 14:15
‘There is great apprehension in Washington, Tokyo, and other capitals about the rise of China as a new power. The US Congress is alarmed about the large American trade deficit with China. The Pentagon is concerned about China challenging American military supremacy in East Asia. While it is natural that traditional powers should be concerned about the rise of new powers, China’s capacity to pursue an aggressive foreign policy will be very contained by her new economic circumstances. China’s ratio of exports to GDP is now 38% or three times higher than that of the US, Japan, and Europe. It is unusual for a country as large as China to be so heavily dependent upon foreign trade but as a result of low labour costs, good infrastructure, and pro-business economic policies the global corporate community has turned China into a workshop of the world. China has become so integrated with the global economy that she can no longer pursue a high-risk foreign policy without jeopardising her economic prosperity. China is likely to become a threat to other countries only if she experiences domestic political instability which produces an upsurge of nationalism or a search for external scapegoats to blame for local problems.’
‘The new president, Xi Jinping, appears likely to be the most powerful Chinese leader since Deng Xiaoping. His faction controls six of the seven seats on the Standing Committee of the Politburo. The recent plenary made him the leader of both the new national security and economic reform committees. There’ll continue to be a free debate on many issues, and the government will carefully monitor public opinion on issues such as corruption and the environment. In pursuing economic and legal reforms, though, Xi won’t tolerate any threat to the supremacy of the Communist Party. The Chinese political system will therefore continue to be an evolving story, combining an authoritarian leadership with a rising middle class demanding more accountability for the government’s actions.
The re-emergence of China as a great power will be Australia’s greatest foreign policy challenge during the 21st century. Canberra will have to carefully balance Australia’s growing economic relationship with China and its traditional alliance with the US. The major threat to this balancing act would be if America’s fiscal problems force it to slash defence spending and withdraw from the East Asian region. In such a scenario, Australia would cease to have a great-power ally and be more vulnerable to foreign aggression than at any time since 1942. The only Asian country with the long-term potential to challenge Chinese hegemony is India. Australia should therefore hedge its bets with the US and China by pursuing better relations with New Delhi.’
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[1] Image: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/DH.png
[2] here in this ASPI interview: https://www.aspi.org.au/events/defence-and-security-lunch-chinas-new-dream-how-will-australia-and-the-world-cope-with-the-re-emergence-of-china-as-a-great-power3/video-chinas-new-dream-david-d-hale
[3] . In the Balance: China’s unprecedented growth and implications for the Asia–Pacific: https://www.aspi.org.au/publications/in-the-balance-chinas-unprecedented-growth-and-implications-for-the-asia-pacific/ASPI_Balance.pdf
[4] China’s new dream: How will Australia and the world cope with the re-emergence of China as a great power?: https://www.aspi.org.au/publications/chinas-new-dream-how-will-australia-and-the-world-cope-with-the-re-emergence-of-china-as-a-great-power/SR64_China-_Hale.pdf