- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
ASEAN frets about rules and order
Posted By Graeme Dobell on June 7, 2019 @ 13:23
At different times in the last two centuries Southeast Asia has seen rivalry between great powers. It has experienced destruction and suffering from war and occupation. It has been divided into opposing camps. It has seen how isolation from the world economy led to stagnation and sometimes conflict. At other times, it has benefited from international cooperation that created an open, stable environment where countries could prosper in peace.
On a long view, we cannot rule out any of these eventualities.
What we are dealing with is not only a shift in the material balance of forces in our region, but also in our very conception of the emerging regional order—and, respectively, the anchors of peace and prosperity in the twenty-first century. The consequence of such a seismic geopolitical shift is a troubling form of superpower rivalry, which has now extended—to the anxiety of many in the region—even to the realm of trade, investment and cyberspace.
If left unchecked, this new and perilous dynamic could potentially upset globalisation as we know it.
The challenge for both the US and China, amid their bilateral struggle, as dominant powers in Asia, is to offer that inclusive and overarching moral justification for acceptance by all countries, big and small, of their dominance beyond military might. Both countries have cited security as the basis for current positions—the US in trade and China in the South China Sea. But whatever the underlying motivations for either country, if America First or China’s rise is perceived to be lopsided against the national interests of other countries or the collective good, the acceptance of the United States’ or China’s dominance will be diminished. Countries will hedge first in trade ties and later, inevitably, in security alliances.
In the novel Lost horizon, Shangri-La was a mythical utopian place in the mountains. By contrast, the future over the horizon of the Shangri-La Dialogue is more murky than mythic, more scary than utopian.
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[1] Shangri-La Dialogue: https://www.iiss.org/events/shangri-la-dialogue/shangri-la-dialogue-2019
[2] Joseph Nye’s line: https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/asia/1995-07-01/east-asian-security-case-deep-engagement
[3] keynote address: https://www.iiss.org/-/media/files/shangri-la-dialogue/2019/speeches/keynote-address---lee-hsien-loong-prime-minister-of-singapore---transcript.ashx
[4] Delfin Lorenzana: https://www.iiss.org/-/media/files/shangri-la-dialogue/2019/speeches/plenary-5--major-general-retd-delfin-lorenzana-transcript.ashx
[5] Mohamad Sabu: https://www.iiss.org/-/media/files/shangri-la-dialogue/2019/speeches/plenary-3---haji-mohamad-sabu-minister-of-defence-malaysia.ashx
[6] Ng Eng Hen: https://www.iiss.org/-/media/files/shangri-la-dialogue/2019/speeches/plenary-6---dr-ng-eng-hen-minister-for-defence-singapore-transcript.ashx
[7] Lost horizon: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lost_Horizon