- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
Hugh White’s military revolution
Posted By Graeme Dobell on August 26, 2019 @ 06:00
For almost a decade after 2000, Australian defence policy drifted, and our strategic risks grew faster than anyone had expected.
The result was a series of decisions that will weaken Australia’s defence for decades to come because of the high opportunity costs they impose. They include the investment of huge sums on C-17 long-range transport aircraft, Canberra-class amphibious ships, Land 400 combat vehicles, a big fleet of major warships, and the mismanagement of the replacement of the Collins-class submarines. These poor decisions were themselves the result of a deeper failure, or refusal, to comprehend the scale and significance of the strategic shifts underway in Asia.
[O]ur massive investment in amphibious land forces, and the even bigger investment in a fleet of warships designed to protect them, are completely unsuited to the strategic objectives and operational imperatives of the next few decades. Meanwhile, mismanagement means we will have far too few submarines, far too late, and quite possibly not capable enough. Our combat aircraft are ill-equipped for their most important task, and impossible to sustain in operations without massive US support. These failures mean that the more contested Asia becomes, the more we will rely on America, as America’s power and resolve ebbs swiftly away. And if America fails us, we will find we have no effective military options to meet serious threats.
What I didn’t realise then—and I feel a bit guilty about this—was how quickly Chinese power would rise. How quickly America’s capacity to respond would erode, partly thanks to 9/11 and all that followed. And, therefore, how fast we should be moving, not just to expand our capacity to support the US in a conflict with China, but to expand our capacity to defend Australia independently, if that failed. I underestimated how fast things were going to change.
My only consolation is that I think most other people in Australia have underestimated that much more, and many of them are still underestimating.
Article printed from The Strategist: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au
URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/hugh-whites-military-revolution/
[1] How to defend Australia: https://www.blackincbooks.com.au/books/how-defend-australia
[2] new Oz way of war: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/a-new-australian-way-of-war/
[3] US alliance ebbs: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-us-alliance-and-defending-australia/
[4] relentless, surprising and confronting: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/how-to-defend-australia-can-the-circle-be-squared/
[5] 2000 defence white paper: http://www.defence.gov.au/publications/wpaper2000.pdf
[6] major change of course: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/hugh-white-calls-for-australia-to-scrap-ships-and-build-more-submarines/