The threat spectrum
Posted By
Hillary Mansour, Khwezi Nkwanyana, Matthew Page and Jackson Schultz
on September 17, 2021 @ 12:50
Planet A
New
research shows that rising temperatures from climate change have caused
physical changes in warm-blooded species to help them
dispel heat and regulate body temperature.
These changes
indicate generations of persistent overheating, and are highly pronounced in Australian birdlife, including the gang-gang cockatoo and the red-rumped parrot, whose beaks have increased in size by up to 10% since the late 1800s. Climate change-linked events like the 2019–20 bushfires caused significant
habitat and population loss, driving the gang-gang cockatoo towards
endangered status. And climate change is accelerating ecological changes faster than most species can adapt.
Australia has been a
major contributor to global biodiversity loss, and national biodiversity is still
declining. The
outlook is poor for Australia’s ecological reproduction, food security and agriculture. Attempts to
limit biodiversity loss, such as
zero extinction targets, will fail if more significant steps aren’t taken to limit global warming to 1.5°C.
Democracy watch
Protests continue in Brazil after beleaguered far-right President Jair Bolsonaro called supporters to rally on 7 September in a ‘
do or die’ event that many worried could parallel the
6 January US Capitol attack. Bolsonaro faces possibly the
most fraught moment of his presidency as anger over his vaccine corruption, mishandling of Covid-19 and attempts to change the electoral rules for next year’s election reaches boiling point.
Speaking to the rally of 100,000 supporters, Bolsonaro attacked the judiciary, saying that he would
no longer comply with decisions of the Supreme Court and that ‘only God removes me’. The defence ministry reportedly told congressional leaders that the 2022 elections
won’t take place unless Bolsonaro’s demands for changes to the country’s electronic voting system to include a paper trail are met.
Brazil’s democratic institutions may not weather these scathing attacks on their legitimacy as, despite over 580,000 Brazilian deaths from Covid, Bolsonaro retains the support of his country’s elites in the form of the
centrão, which has been described in the media as ‘
a powerful bloc of self-serving, ideology-lite, centre-right parties’.
Information operations
Buzzfeed News says facial
recognition software produced by the technology company Clearview AI was used by law enforcement and other government agencies in 25 countries, including Australia, between 2018 and February 2020. The controversial technology allows users to upload an image of a person which is run through artificial-intelligence software that’s been
trained using billions of social media and other online images to find potential matches.
While Clearview claims 100% accuracy, Buzzfeed says its technology can misidentify individuals and highlights concerns about both the
efficacy of AI-driven
facial recognition tools in policing and the need to protect citizens from profiling, wrongful investigation and arrest. Clearview AI has already been found to have breached data security laws in
Canada and has been investigated by regulators in
Australia and the UK, and now the
European Union. An inquiry into Clearview by the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner is
ongoing.
Follow the money
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Belarussian counterpart, Alexander Lukashenko, agreed on Thursday to
substantial further economic integration as Belarus finds itself increasingly isolated in the aftermath of last year’s fraudulent elections and the forced landing of a Ryanair flight in May.
Within the framework of the Union State, a post-Soviet attempt to reunite Belarus and Russia, Moscow will continue to supply Minsk with significantly discounted natural gas with an eye to the eventual integration of their energy markets. Moscow has also agreed to grant Belarus a further
US$1.5 billion in loans on top of
US$106 billion pumped into its economy between 2005 and 2015. Belarus’s brutal crackdown on opposition protests and consequent
US and EU sanctions have further increased the country’s reliance on its larger neighbour.
This confronts the countries imposing sanctions with the possibility that half measures will render Belarus effectively an extension of Russian territory. Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya has called for ‘
harsher sanctions’ to break the back of the Lukashenko regime.
Terror byte
The 20th anniversary of the 9/11 terrorist attacks on the US and the reinstatement of Taliban rule in Afghanistan have sparked reflection on the future of jihadist extremism, with some analysts suggesting that Africa will be the next
epicentre of Islamic insurgency. In Somalia, the Sahel and to the north of Lake Chad, jihadist groups are thriving by
exploiting local instability, poor governance structures and weak state armed forces. Although no African country faces collapse due to extremism as happened in Afghanistan, the withdrawal of foreign troops from
Mali and
Somalia has rung alarm bells.
The CIA has
increased its counterterrorism efforts through the US Africa Command. Drone flights now monitor insurgent groups and a training and logistics base in the Sahara. It’s uncertain, though, whether heightened military intervention alone will be enough to quell extremism on the continent. Disenchantment among young people, failing economies and governments’ poor delivery of basic services are key recruitment drivers for extremist groups. Along with Afghanistan, foreign militaries have struggled to address these issues in Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
Hillary Mansour, Khwezi Nkwanyana, Matthew Page and Jackson Schultz are research interns at ASPI. Image: AmyJo_Freelance_Artist/Pixabay.
Article printed from The Strategist: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au
URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-threat-spectrum-23/
[1] research: https://www.cell.com/trends/ecology-evolution/fulltext/S0169-5347(21)00197-X
[2] physical changes: https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2021-09-08/shape-shifting-animals-tell-story-of-climate-change/100443044
[3] dispel heat: https://boingboing.net/2021/09/08/animals-are-shapeshifting-to-cope-with-climate-change.html?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=animals-are-shapeshifting-to-cope-with-climate-change
[4] indicate: https://theconversation.com/new-research-reveals-animals-are-changing-their-body-shapes-to-cope-with-climate-change-166267
[5] habitat and population loss: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2021/jul/26/fears-for-gang-gang-cockatoos-as-numbers-plummet-after-fires
[6] endangered status: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7353091/gang-gang-cockatoo-could-be-listed-as-endangered-species/
[7] major contributor: https://theconversation.com/australia-among-the-worlds-worst-on-biodiversity-conservation-86685
[8] declining: https://www.csiro.au/en/research/natural-environment/biodiversity/Biodiversity-book/Chapter-3
[9] outlook is poor: https://soe.environment.gov.au/theme/biodiversity
[10] limit biodiversity loss: https://www.canberratimes.com.au/story/7344602/climate-protection-plan-for-canberras-cockatoos/
[11] zero extinction targets: https://www.timeout.com/sydney/news/nsw-has-a-new-zero-extinction-target-for-native-species-090721
[12] do or die: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/07/world/americas/bolsonaro-brazil-protests.html
[13] 6 January US Capitol attack: https://www.vox.com/2021/9/8/22620570/bolsonaro-brazil-september-7-democracy-supreme-court
[14] most fraught moment of his presidency: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/01/bolsonaro-brazil-vaccine-covid-scandal
[15] no longer comply: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-09-08/jair-bolsonaro-uses-rallies-to-deepen-rift-with-brazlian-supreme/100442652
[16] won’t take place: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/24/brazilian-protesters-call-for-the-impeachment-of-jair-bolsonaro
[17] recognition: https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/ryanmac/clearview-ai-international-search-table
[18] trained using billions of social media and other online images: https://fortune.com/2020/03/03/clearview-ai-privacy-issues/
[19] efficacy: https://www.csis.org/blogs/technology-policy-blog/how-accurate-are-facial-recognition-systems-%E2%80%93-and-why-does-it-matter
[20] facial recognition tools in policing: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/techtank/2021/05/26/mandating-fairness-and-accuracy-assessments-for-law-enforcement-facial-recognition-systems/
[21] Canada: https://www.forbes.com/sites/emmawoollacott/2021/02/04/clearview-ai-surveillance-ruled-illegal-in-canada/?sh=65db84538f9a
[22] Australia and the UK: https://ico.org.uk/about-the-ico/news-and-events/news-and-blogs/2020/07/oaic-and-ico-open-joint-investigation-into-clearview-ai-inc/
[23] European Union: https://fortune.com/2021/05/27/europe-clearview-ai-gdpr-complaints-privacy/
[24] ongoing: https://www.innovationaus.com/privacy-offices-clearview-ai-investigation-still-going/
[25] substantial further economic integration: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/9/9/putin-lukashenko-agree-to-deepen-economic-ties-amid-sanctions
[26] US$1.5 billion in loans: https://www.reuters.com/article/belarus-election-russia-int-idUSKBN26521Z
[27] US$106 billion: https://www.dw.com/en/how-russian-money-keeps-belarus-afloat/a-58680063
[28] US and EU sanctions: https://insightplus.bakermckenzie.com/bm/attachment_dw.action?attkey=FRbANEucS95NMLRN47z%2BeeOgEFCt8EGQJsWJiCH2WAVfnLVn2ghRGNataOlQtiRc&nav=FRbANEucS95NMLRN47z%2BeeOgEFCt8EGQbuwypnpZjc4%3D&attdocparam=pB7HEsg%2FZ312Bk8OIuOIH1c%2BY4beLEAe3a7jqAIe3Qw%3D&fromContentView=1
[29] harsher sanctions: https://www.dw.com/en/belarus-opposition-leader-sviatlana-tsikhanouskaya-says-harsh-sanctions-needed/a-57869000
[30] epicentre: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2021/08/30/20-years-after-9-11-jihadi-terrorism-rises-in-africa/
[31] exploiting: https://issafrica.org/iss-today/the-20-year-war-911s-enduring-legacy-in-africa
[32] Mali: https://www.france24.com/en/france/20210713-macron-announces-france-s-sahel-military-force-will-end-in-early-2022
[33] Somalia: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-55677077
[34] increased: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/10/world/europe/war-on-terror-bush-biden-qaeda.html