Armies hold the key to credible deterrence in the Indo-Pacific because they form the backbone of regional security networks and are harder for China to neutralise, according to a former commanding general of the US Army Pacific. And for those worried about US reliability—be that in hard power or willpower—his message is clear: don’t be.

Appearing on ASPI’s Stop the World podcast, recently retired general Charles Flynn says Beijing would ultimately need to move a large land force across the Taiwan Strait to fulfil its long held ambition of controlling the democratically self-governed island.

He says the region is ‘dominated by armies’—from the Philippines and Vietnam to Japan and India—and this strategic land power network is ‘the security architecture that binds the region together’, offering an asymmetrical advantage.

‘The A2/AD (anti-access/area denial) arsenal the Chinese have designed is primarily designed to defeat our air and maritime capabilities,’ Flynn says. ‘It is not designed to find, fix and target—attack—distributed, mobile, reloadable and networked land forces.’

He argues that forward-deployed missile and artillery units—such as US HIMARS systems, Japan’s Type 12 and 88 missiles, and the Philippines’ Bramos—could present China with a formidable deterrent by denying sea lanes and bolstering allied firepower.

‘Add in Marine Corps and special operations forces capabilities, and you have a forward position of hard power that provides a deterrent effect,’ Flynn says. ‘If you’re in the right pieces of terrain—like the Luzon Strait—you can make the air and maritime components appear larger than they are.’

Flynn warns against ignoring the role of China’s land forces in the country’s military modernisation. He says Beijing’s reforms since 2015 has fused new technologies, organisational changes and increased the complexity and scale of their exercises.

‘In order to invade Taiwan, you actually have to generate an invasion force, and that is its army,’ he says. ‘They can’t achieve their objectives unless they deliver that invasion force.’

Flynn reminds listeners that Beijing has long-range rocket artillery such as the PCH-191 that can hit targets beyond Taiwan. He says other nations needed to watch China’s army, not just its navy and air force, for the clearest ‘indications and warnings’ of possible conflict.

Flynn notes that while amphibious landings are among the most difficult military operations, Beijing’s political leaders may act even before their joint forces are fully ready.

‘It’s a matter of risk, and it’s also a political question,’ he said.

On the strategic importance of Australia, Flynn says northern Australia is emerging as a crucial hub in this deterrence network, combining geography, training facilities and logistics.

‘From Townsville to the northern airfields to Darwin and around to Perth, those are important geographical locations for sustainment, command and control, additive manufacturing and industry to come forward and work together,’ he says, adding that the territory is also important for force projection.

He advocates for pre-positioned equipment and a US sustainment command presence in Townsville and praises the Australian Army’s investment in watercraft that could expand interoperability with US forces.

On worrisome trends in the region, Flynn warns of Beijing’s expanding presence in Pacific island nations, describing a pattern of loans, infrastructure projects and police training that could give China control of key facilities.

They would come with money and get into loan agreements that can’t be paid back, and then they would assume ‘ports, airfields, warehouses, electrical grid and communications backbone,’ he says. ‘That is a very dangerous combination in small island nations.’

Australia, the United States, New Zealand and Indonesia should work with island countries to meet their needs—especially in disaster resilience—to prevent Chinese entrenchment, he says.

Flynn, now a senior adviser to software firm Palantir, says the US is seeking to integrate artificial intelligence and data tools to give commanders at every level a ‘decision advantage’.

But he warns that technology-sharing between Russia, North Korea, China and Iran—fuelled by war in Ukraine—risks accelerating adversaries’ capabilities. ‘They are very good at electronic warfare, cyber and space,’ he said. ‘We should not discount what’s being picked up.’

On persistent questions in Australia about the US’s reliability, Flynn offers reassurance.

‘Never underestimate the United States military and its ability to maintain a tight, credible and reliable partnership with our allies and partners,’ he says.

He points to the growth of exercises across the region, which has expanded from bilateral army-to-army drills into service-to-service exercises that are more multinational and more joint.

‘That’s the leading indicator [to] counter any perception that they may not be reliable,’ Flynn says. ‘It’s the human interoperability that’s the most important—and we have that in spades out here.’

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