- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
Asia Essentials: the great Chinese puzzle
Posted By Graeme Dobell on October 1, 2013 @ 13:30
America's most important relationship in Asia is with Japan... Our most complex relationship in Asia, however, and the one that demands the most constant tending, is with China.
A Chinese challenge to American power in Asia is no longer a future possibility but a current reality.
It would be a mistake to embrace an overly pessimistic view of this relationship, pointing to unavoidable conflict. Australia does not believe that there is anything inevitable about escalating strategic competition between China and the US.
We agree that the trend of China’s military modernisation is beyond the scope of what would be required for a conflict over Taiwan. Arguably China already poses a credible threat to modern militaries operating in the region and will present an even more formidable challenge as its modernisation continues.
… the biggest changes to our outlook over the period have been the rise of China, the emergence of India and the beginning of the end of the so-called unipolar moment; the almost two-decade period in which the pre-eminence of our principal ally, the United States, was without question.
There is a hardline view that regards China's rise as a threat to the existing global order no matter what. There is a contrary view, espoused by some particularly in the developing world and in some parts of academia, that a new 'Beijing consensus' should replace the 'Washington consensus' with China the model for developing countries to follow. There is the associated view of China as the economic saviour of the world, emerging from the global financial crisis. Or alternatively, there is the view that China increasingly behaves as a mercantilist power, insensitive to its emerging global economic responsibilities. The truth is there are as many conflicting views in the West about China and its future as there are within China itself.
There’s no doubt that the Americans are taking the Chinese seriously and that the Chinese are well and truly returning the compliment. In Washington, the issues were: Will China play by the rules in the South China Sea; has China ‘bought’ friends inside ASEAN; and what’s the purpose of Chinese cyberattacks on Western institutions and businesses? In Beijing, they were: why is there a new US Marine posting to Darwin and why is Australia choosing its history over its geography (even though we’re determined not to make such an invidious choice)?
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[1] Image: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/3068818830_1b53f1f996_z.jpeg
[2] Hillary Clinton put to PM Rudd in 2009: http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/us-embassy-cables-documents/199393
[3] memoirs of Bill Clinton's second Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright: http://books.google.com.au/books/about/Madam_Secretary.html?id=RBuEq2f5U_QC&redir_esc=y
[4] Hugh White observes: http://www.quarterlyessay.com/issue/power-shift-australia%E2%80%99s-future-between-washington-and-beijing
[5] offered this 2005 judgement: http://www.lowyinstitute.org/Publication.asp?pid=396
[6] Courtesy of Wikileaks: http://www.theage.com.au/national/chinese-hiding-military-buildup-20110106-19hjc.html?skin=text-only
[7] a Rudd speech: http://pmrudd.archive.dpmc.gov.au/node/6700
[8] wrote in July last year: http://www.spectator.co.uk/australia/8358331/notes-from-abroad-28-july-2012/
[9] Eva the Weaver: http://www.flickr.com/photos/evaekeblad/3068818830/