Burying its head in the sand, Australia is worryingly complacent to catastrophic risk

Posted By Marc Ablong on November 24, 2025 @ 06:00

Despite our famed resilience against natural disasters, Australia still struggles to take catastrophic risk seriously. In this volatile security environment, the divide between short-term comfort and meaningful long-term preparedness remains worryingly wide. We must confront the ‘lucky country’ complacency if we are to be fit for an uncertain future.

National disaster-preparedness documents, such as those in the Australian Disaster Resilience Handbook collection, acknowledge scenarios that ‘exceed our current arrangements, thinking, experience and imagination’. Catastrophes still overwhelm our operational and governance systems, and Australia’s responses remain reactive and fragmented. For example, while the government has many emergency response plans, they remain siloed, focusing on everyday emergencies rather than truly existential and catastrophic shocks.

The frameworks explicitly warn that catastrophic events would overwhelm the limits of current capabilities, but this insight is rarely matched by a proportional, society-wide shift in thinking or investment in national, community or individual resilience. Reports released in the past few months highlight that we are ill-prepared for war and other catastrophic threats. Australia relies on hope, risk transference and budget cycles rather than focusing on hard decisions, redundancy and serious mobilisation. Discussing supply chains, industrial mobilisation and whole-of-nation resilience, experts have argued that Australia has become complacent in the face of strategic shocks.

The latest climate risk assessment, for instance, emphasises that ‘climate change will disrupt our very way of life’, warning of abrupt tipping points leading to compounding, cascading disasters. Despite this, Australia’s transition and preparedness measures lag far behind the scale of identified risks. Similarly, experts in AI and emerging technologies have raised the lack of a national security-focused risk assessment, flagging that the consequences of losing control of advanced technologies could rival those of a pandemic or major critical infrastructure attack. Despite this, policy focus and cross-sector engagement are limited.

The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, critiquing corporate financial and organisational risk culture, notes that high-profile failures are regularly traced back to leaders treating risk management as a tick-the-box exercise rather than core business. Surveys show Australians are deeply worried about catastrophic risks, especially climate-related disasters. However, confidence in national preparedness is inconsistent, with many relying on the ‘she’ll be right’ tradition until disaster looms.

Three key data points highlight the gaps in Australia’s catastrophic risk preparedness.

First, only 10 percent of Australians are actively prepared for a disaster or emergency, according to research from the Australian Red Cross. The organisation’s 2023 survey found concerns regarding disasters and emergencies have increased markedly since the previous survey in 2018. Last year, nearly 70 percent of Australians were affected by storms, floods, cyclones or bushfires, yet around 75 percent of homeowners believe their properties face low or no risk from such events, exposing a dangerous underestimation of actual risk and vulnerability. For most Australians, growing concerns aren't translating into action, with a major gap between community concern and real-world preparedness.

Second, 98 percent of the $24.5 billion in federal funding for disasters between 2005 and 2022 went to recovery and relief, not resilience or risk reduction, indicating a persistent policy bias toward response rather than prevention. This bias stems from the perceived immediacy and visibility of disaster impacts, political incentives for rapid action in emergencies, and a tendency to underestimate the cost-effectiveness of prevention despite clear evidence that disaster response costs far more than risk reduction.

Third, the 2025 Lowy Poll report reveals a marked sense of national insecurity among Australians, with two-thirds viewing cyberattacks from other countries and military conflict in the Indo-Pacific as critical threats to national interests. Despite these concerns, there remains a significant gap between perceived risks and actual spending on risk management by governments, corporations and individuals. Australian governments have made largely symbolic investments in defence modernisation and disaster preparedness. But sustained funding for resilience, critical infrastructure protection and risk governance lags behind public anxiety levels, and corporate risk spending remains reactive and focused on compliance rather than preparedness. This disconnect leaves Australians with a persistent sense that the nation’s strategic risks are not being adequately addressed.

To genuinely confront catastrophic risk, Australia must move beyond planning for yesterday’s crises and establish a robust national standard for catastrophic risk assessment and planning; embed multi-layered defences at all levels; mainstream catastrophic risk assessments into policy, procurement and civil preparedness activities; and learn from nations where national preparedness is integrated into every aspect of public and private life.

Additionally, we must foster a risk-literate public through education and community-based initiatives that build understanding of the risks Australia faces, such as the crisis preparedness documents European governments send all citizens. We should invest in exercising and stress-testing critical national systems for true worst-case scenarios, as Britain is currently doing. And in the corporate world, we must cultivate a new risk culture that rewards foresight, values redundancies and accepts short-term business pain for long-term security.

The worst catastrophes are no longer unimaginable. They are, however, unprepared for. If we do not act, we will only have ourselves to blame.

Article printed from The Strategist: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au

URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/burying-its-head-in-the-sand-australia-is-worryingly-complacent-to-catastrophic-risk/

[1] complacency: https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/geopolitics-and-policy/16942-run-out-of-luck-curse-of-the-lucky-country-strikes-again-warns-australian-spy-chief

[2] Handbook: https://knowledge.aidr.org.au/media/10162/handbook_aema_web_2023.pdf

[3] plans: https://www.homeaffairs.gov.au/about-us/our-portfolios/emergency-management/emergency-response-plans

[4] Reports: https://www.rslaustralia.org/latest-news/australia-unprepared-war-is-a-risky-business

[5] ill-prepared: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/we-were-better-prepared-for-war-in-1914-than-we-are-now/news-story/7bc7411abfd24ad03db7b545cf4d53ba

[6] war: https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/australia-was-illprepared-for-war-in-1941-in-2025-were-making-the-same-grave-mistake/news-story/7baeb694659dc20613f86a0b2acbf9ec

[7] supply chains: https://perthusasia.edu.au/research-and-insights/publications/securing-australias-defence-supply-chains/#:~:text=The%20security%20of%20Australia

[8] mobilisation: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/capital-gaps-and-complacency-investment-imbalance-undermines-sovereignty/

[9] resilience: https://apo.org.au/sites/default/files/resource-files/2021-10/apo-nid314637.pdf

[10] argued: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/complacent-australia-is-not-ready-for-the-harsh-new-world-order-20250219-p5ldjo

[11] complacent: https://www.intelligence.gov.au/news/asio-annual-threat-assessment-2025

[12] shocks: https://nsc.anu.edu.au/content-centre/article/opinion/time-talk-australian-resilience-and-preparedness-new-world-disorder

[13] emphasises: https://www.acs.gov.au/pages/national-climate-risk-assessment

[14] lag: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/briefing-paper-national-climate-risk-assessment-ncra/

[15] AI: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/ais-national%E2%80%91security-risks-are-falling-through-the-gaps/

[16] technologies: https://minister.homeaffairs.gov.au/TonyBurke/Pages/new-framework-to-address-technology-security-risks.aspx

[17] assessment: https://www.aph.gov.au/DocumentStore.ashx?id=5c0fe0b1-56be-45e5-a62a-2b8c21428bba&subId=778285#:~:text=Australia%20lacks%20a%20whole%2Dof,2023)%20National%20Risk%20Profile%202023.

[18] risk culture: https://handbook.apra.gov.au/information-paper/277/risk-culture

[19] Surveys: https://www.climatecouncil.org.au/resources/survey-results-climate-fuelled-disasters-cause-australians-to-fear-permanent-loss-of-homes/

[20] preparedness: https://www.aidr.org.au/media/6682/national-resilience-taskforce-profiling-australias-vulnerability.pdf

[21] survey: https://www.safewise.com/au/red-cross-australia-emergency-preparedness/

[22] believe: https://www.ceda.com.au/news-and-resources/media-releases/economy/australians-need-better-risk-information-as-natural-disasters-intensify

[23] underestimation: https://nccarf.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/Reser_2012_Public_risk_perceptions_Final.pdf

[24] preparedness: https://insurancecouncil.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2023/10/The-new-benchmark-for-catastrophe-preparedness-in-Australia_Oct-2023.pdf

[25] funding: https://www.finance.gov.au/government/australian-government-investment-funds/disaster-ready-fund

[26] response: https://www.preventionweb.net/news/defending-australia-disasters

[27] evidence: https://assets.pc.gov.au/inquiries/completed/disaster-funding/issues/disaster-funding-issues.pdf

[28] report: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2025/

[29] two-thirds: https://poll.lowyinstitute.org/report/2025/safety-and-threats/#report

[30] cyberattacks: https://insights.issgovernance.com/posts/assessing-cybersecurity-in-australia/

[31] military conflict: https://www.ussc.edu.au/the-albanese-trump-summit-where-do-australians-stand-on-their-most-important-ally

[32] governments: https://www.pmc.gov.au/resources/corporate-plan-2025-26/part-2-operating-environment/global-context-and-national-security

[33] corporations: https://www.russellreynolds.com/en/insights/reports-surveys/global-corporate-governance-trends/2025/australia

[34] symbolic: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/the-cost-of-defence-aspi-defence-budget-brief-2025-2026/

[35] strategic risks: https://www.defenceconnect.com.au/joint-capabilities/12004-we-now-have-a-defence-strategic-review-but-where-is-the-national-risk-assessment-the-national-security-strategy-and-the-plan#:~:text=The%20unclassified%20report%20totals%20116,plan%20hopefully%20soon%20after%20that?

[36] adequately: https://www.jstor.org/stable/27311034

[37] addressed: https://australiainstitute.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2022/12/P1348-APLN-ELN-speech-Aus-perceptions-of-strategic-risks-Web.pdf

[38] standard: https://www.oecd.org/en/publications/framework-on-management-of-emerging-critical-risks_2f2eddd8-en.html

[39] national preparedness: https://www.aspi.org.au/report/building-national-preparedness-a-road-map-for-australia-and-what-we-should-learn-from-finland/

[40] crisis: https://rib.msb.se/filer/pdf/30874.pdf

[41] exercising: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/exercising-best-practice-guidance

[42] Britain: https://www.gov.uk/government/news/national-emergency-alert-test-to-be-held-on-7th-september

[43] currently: https://www.england.nhs.uk/long-read/pandemic-preparedness-exercise-pegasus/

[44] risk: https://www.apra.gov.au/transforming-risk-culture-observations-from-apra%E2%80%99s-pilot-survey#:~:text=A%20strong%20risk%20culture%20creates,%2C%20procedures%20and%20governance%20structures).

[45] culture: https://www.governanceinstitute.com.au/news_media/beyond-cyber-the-changing-landscape-of-security-risk/#:~:text=Australia