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Asian gazing (7): the China choice
Posted By Graeme Dobell on June 12, 2013 @ 12:30
When the 2013 White Paper was released a few weeks ago, I said at the press conference with the Australian Prime Minister where it was launched that I accepted that I was in a minority of one so far as Australian commentators and international commentators were concerned, that the 2009 Australian White Paper was not directed at China. My own view has always been that it wasn’t directed at China. Like any White Paper, it was the mapping out of a strategic document. But I conceded that I was the only person in that camp because one in public life, in politics and in international relations and diplomacy, is often defeated by perception, albeit erroneously placed or not.
Economic forces are gradually pulling South Korea into China’s orbit. The Chinese market is now easily the most important for Korean companies and there are some 200 direct flights a day between South Korea and mainland China. Opinion polls conducted by the Asan institute show that South Koreans have more positive feelings towards the US than towards China—but that most expect China to be the world’s dominant power within 10 years. South Korean anxiety about the staying power of the US is reflected in a domestic debate about whether the country needs to develop its own nuclear weapons to deter North Korea, rather than relying on a nuclear umbrella, extended across the Pacific by the US. Like many countries in east Asia, South Korea now finds its economic and strategic interests pointing in different directions. Economically, it is increasingly part of the Sinosphere. Strategically, it is part of the American-led world. How that tension plays out will do a lot to determine the balance of power between the US and China.
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[1] Image: http://www.aspistrategist.org.au/wp-content/uploads/2013/06/2673925463_f59548992d_z.jpg
[2] William Choong: http://www.iiss.org/en/persons/william-s-choong
[3] John Garnaut’s view: http://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/softer-tone-but-china-wariness-remains-20130503-2iyhx.html
[4] his judgement: http://www.smh.com.au/world/chinese-whispers-20130607-2nw3a.html
[5] give the boot to the red rag proposition: http://www.iiss.org/en/events/shangri%20la%20dialogue/archive/shangri-la-dialogue-2013-c890/third-plenary-session-51af/qa-7986
[6] example of the genre: http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/a408ef8a-cdd1-11e2-a13e-00144feab7de.html#axzz2Vte3kxBC
[7] repeat the line he used at last year’s Shangri La dialogue: http://www.iiss.org/en/events/shangri%20la%20dialogue/archive/shangri-la-dialogue-2013-c890/fifth-plenary-session-a1d0/le-drian-cf2f
[8] PORTOBESENO: http://www.flickr.com/photos/portobeseno/2673925463/