The global security implications of Donald Trump’s inauguration speech can be best summed up by two quotes that bookended his 30-minute remarks. The first was an emphasis on his familiar ‘America First’ philosophy. Literally three …
Prediction is always difficult, but doubly so in the case of the US president-elect. Donald Trump not only speaks loosely and changes his positions often; he also considers unpredictability to be a useful bargaining tool. …
As the US presidential election draws near, many are wondering what it will mean for American foreign policy. The answer is wrapped in uncertainty. First, who will win the election? At the beginning of the …
When Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US President Joe Biden last November, some interpreted it as a return to engagement. In fact, it heralded only a minor détente, not a major change in policy. …
In my old job at the US State Department, colleagues often asked me what was likely to happen in this or that situation. Often, there was no way of knowing, and I reminded questioners that …