- The Strategist - https://www.aspistrategist.org.au -
The choppy seas and non-dialogue of US–China relations
Posted By Graeme Dobell on June 5, 2023 @ 06:00
We have codes for encounters at sea and air reached with many other countries to prevent unnecessary dangers. But I want to also raise a question on the incidents you mention. Why did all those incidents happen in areas near China, not in areas near other countries? I think that is because Chinese air or navy vessels do not do access near other countries. To truly prevent such incidents in the future, we do not only need the codes we have. The best way is for other countries’ planes and ships not to do actions around other countries.
Dialogue is not a reward. It is a necessity. And a cordial handshake over dinner is no substitute for a substantive engagement. And the more that we talk, the more that we can avoid the misunderstandings and miscalculations that could lead to crisis or conflict. You know, I am deeply concerned that the PRC has been unwilling to engage more seriously on better mechanisms for crisis management between our two militaries. But I hope that will change, and soon.
I’d also highlight that conflict is neither imminent or inevitable. Deterrence is strong today—and it’s our job to keep it that way. You know, the whole world has a stake in maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait—the whole world. The security of commercial shipping lanes and global supply chains depends on it. And so does freedom of navigation worldwide. But make no mistake: conflict in the Taiwan Strait would be devastating.
It is impossible to determine whether China will use force to take Taiwan at some point in the future. Such force might take a variety of forms, ranging from a contested amphibious assault to concerted missile attacks and bombardments or a naval blockade. China has prepared for all these options, including via ‘lawfare’ by claiming that the Taiwan Strait is not an international waterway. In any case, the decision on whether to resort to armed force is arguably no longer just in China’s hands; rather, it has become a function of the dynamic that has evolved between Beijing and Washington.
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URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/the-choppy-seas-and-non-dialogue-of-us-china-relations/
[1] 150 yards of a collision: https://globalnews.ca/news/9743650/china-warship-nearly-hits-us-destroyer-taiwan-strait
[2] US says: https://news.usni.org/2023/06/03/u-s-canadian-warships-transit-taiwan-strait
[3] keynote address: https://www.pm.gov.au/media/iiss-shangri-la-dialogue
[4] talking in the Indo-Pacific: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/albanese-calls-for-indo-pacific-jaw-jaw-and-guardrails/
[5] lamented: https://www.defense.gov/News/Speeches/Speech/Article/3415839/a-shared-vision-for-the-indo-pacific-remarks-by-secretary-of-defense-lloyd-j-au/
[6] Asia–Pacific security assessment: https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/asia-pacific-regional-security-assessment-2023/
[7] Strained US–China relations and the growing threat to Taiwan’: https://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-dossiers/asia-pacific-regional-security-assessment-2023/aprsa-chapter-2/