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US budget FY2018: F-35 and Super Hornet updates
Posted By Andrew Davies and James Mugg on May 31, 2017 @ 14:30
As long-term readers will know, we keep a watching brief on American aircraft development and production programs that are relevant to Australia. The two most significant ones are the RAAF’s current and future first line strike fighters—the F/A-18 Super Hornet and F-35A Joint Strike Fighter respectively. The Pentagon budget requests for Fiscal Year 2018 have just been released, so it’s time to update our figures.
Previous analyses of the F-35 program are here: FY2014 [1], FY2015 [2], FY2016 [3], FY2017 [1] for the A model (which Australia is buying) and here [4] for a look at the other variants. Our most recent look at the Super Hornet program is here [5].
The big news about the F-35 program is that there’s no big news—things seem to be on track and delivery is ramping up as costs are coming down. While it might make for a less than compelling blog piece, it’s good news for both the American forces and for the aircraft’s international customers.
Here are the figures. The red line in the chart below is the latest budget projection for cost, in constant 2017 dollars. It looks like the F-35A unit flyaway cost is levelling out at a figure a little under US$85 million. That’s about what was predicted in the FY2008 budget request, but it’s fair to say that it has been a wild ride between then and now. (And it’s also fair to say that there’s no evidence for any ‘Trump miracle [6]’ in F-35 costs.)
The stability in the future cost figures, which have changed little in the past three budget cycles, suggests confidence that there will be no major interruptions to the remaining development program. Consistent with that, this year’s figures also show a steady ramp up in production rate from this year. On these figures (which don’t include international aircraft), the 500th F-35A will be delivered in 2022.
The FY2018 budget estimates include projections for an additional 66 Super Hornets between FY2019 and FY2022 that weren’t present in last year’s budget estimates. That’s good news for anyone else considering buying Super Hornets (Kuwait, Canada), since it keeps the production line active and costs stable. And it’s good news for those of us who think that a further Super Hornet purchase is the best Plan B in the (increasingly unlikely) event of a major setback to the F-35 program.
It would be a mistake to interpret this as a move away from the carrier variant F-35C, even though production of the latter is slightly slowed in the new budget (about 6 fewer total aircraft by FY2021). It’s more likely about the USN’s strike fighter readiness crisis, as new-build Super Hornets are the most ‘ready to go’ option for the USN. That’s consistent with Defence Secretary Mattis’ comments [11] that he wants to prioritise readiness over modernisation or expansion.
About two thirds [12] of the USN’s strike fighters are currently unavailable at any given time due to required maintenance or insufficient spare parts. That’s partially due to earlier delays in the F-35 program, and partially due to underfunded recent sustainment budgets. Buying new aircraft will help take some of strain off the system. And it leaves open the USN with the option of ramping up Super Hornet production or shifting to Block III later.
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URL to article: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/us-budget-fy2018-f-35-super-hornet-updates/
URLs in this post:
[1] FY2014: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/2017-usaf-budget-f-35a-price-and-production-schedule-update/
[2] FY2015: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/graph-of-the-week-f-35-update/
[3] FY2016: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/graphs-of-the-week-f-35a-budget-update/
[4] here: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/2017-us-navy-budget-status-of-the-f-35b-and-f-35c/
[5] here: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/advanced-super-hornet-outmanoeuvre-us-navys-jsfs/
[6] ‘Trump miracle: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/trump-f-35-600-million-question/
[7] obvious fall-back position: https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/f-35-keep-calm-but-have-a-plan/
[8] President proposed: http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-super-hornet-20170331-story.html
[9] FY2018 budget for aircraft procurement: http://www.secnav.navy.mil/fmc/fmb/Documents/18pres/APN_BA1-4_BOOK.pdf
[10] US Congress approved: http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/08/super-hornet-production-set-to-double-as-trump-gives-program-a-boost.html
[11] comments: http://breakingdefense.com/2017/02/mattis-puts-readiness-first-modernization-later-in-budget/
[12] About two thirds: http://www.defensenews.com/articles/grounded-nearly-two-thirds-of-us-navys-strike-fighters-cant-fly
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