China’s security footprint was once confined to its immediate neighbourhood. That time is now past. Under the leadership of Xi Jinping since 2013, China has steadily extended its presence across the Indian and Pacific oceans, …
Articles by: "Joe Keary"
China is no longer a rising power that’s seeking accommodation within the existing international system. It is increasingly acting like a state that believes history has turned in its favour. Beijing is confident it can …
Rather than gradually expanding its defence and security engagement across the Indo-Pacific, Beijing may choose to accelerate its trajectory, pushing boundaries to advance its interests and take advantage of a distracted United States. The result …
China’s expanding presence beyond the first island chain is most likely to generate incidents, friction and escalation risks not through deliberate aggression but through growing operational proximity. As Chinese military, paramilitary and law-enforcement activity becomes …
A major strategic shift in the Indo-Pacific is happening quietly: China’s presence in seas and ports far from its coast is becoming routine. The frequency of its appearances has been rising for about a decade. …
China’s defence and security presence beyond the Western Pacific is set to intensify over the next decade, expanding its access, influence and operational reach across the Indo-Pacific. In the Southwest Pacific, Beijing is likely to …
When Australians think about Taiwan, the focus is often narrow: a distant sovereignty dispute in the Taiwan Strait, or a potential flashpoint between China and the United States. This framing understates the scale of what …
Beijing has temporarily adjusted how its military operates across the Indo-Pacific. This includes less aggressive behaviour from flotillas sailing deep into the region and its military engagements inside the first island chain. But it’s a …
By decisively consolidating his personal power, President Xi Jinping’s latest purge of senior military leadership increases strategic risk for Australia and the rest of the Indo-Pacific. The investigation of two of China’s most senior military …
A Chinese attempt at blockading or invading Taiwan in 2026 is unlikely. Instead, Beijing is likely to persist with its toolkit of coercive actions to erode Taiwan’s will and narrow its strategic options. President Xi …
Debate over the Pukpuk treaty has focused on China and whether Australia’s military might one day use Papua New Guinea’s geography or fight alongside PNG forces in a regional contingency involving Beijing and Washington. But …
Australia and Papua New Guinea’s Pukpuk Treaty is not just about keeping China at arm’s length. It’s also about long-term investment in PNG’s stability, strengthening its defence capacity, enhancing crisis response and addressing demographic and …