Imagining deterrence without nuclear weapons

Nuclear deterrence, with its inherent risk of annihilation, cannot remain the bedrock of international security. Nuclear states, particularly great powers, can and should work on new conventional strategic options that can effectively deter aggression without …

A central bank concept for defence

Australia’s military weakness in an increasingly threatening regional environment requires that serious consideration be given to setting up a defence strategy and procurement body that operates with the same independence as the central bank.  The …

Germany’s weakness is bad for Europe

Once the sick man of Europe, Germany seems to be under the weather once again. That might be putting it mildly: much as it did in the late 1990s, Germany is staring down the barrel …

Fremantle’s wartime past serves as AUKUS submarine prologue

The strategic potential of Submarine Rotational Force-West, the AUKUS initiative that commits the United States and United Kingdom to forward-deploy a small flotilla of nuclear-powered attack submarines to HMAS Stirling, near Fremantle, isn’t adequately appreciated. …

How to prevent a war over Taiwan

Might China try to attack Taiwan by 2027? The outgoing chief of the US Indo-Pacific Command, Philip Davidson, thought so in 2021, and he recently reaffirmed his assessment. But whether the United States and China …

From the bookshelf: ‘Party of One’

Held on 5-11 March, China’s National People’s Congress, the most important event in the country’s annual political calendar, was remarkable mainly for how unremarkable it was this year. Premier Li Qiang’s report on the work …

It’s time for a new national security strategy

It’s been more than a decade since the then Gillard government released Australia’s first national security strategy, flagging an expectation that an updated strategy should be created every five years to set out key objectives …

Wartime trade: it’s not just military supply

The vulnerability of Australia’s trade routes to military coercion was highlighted by both last year’s Defence Strategic Update and by government commentary on the rationale for AUKUS. In his critique of ASPI’s new report, The …

How the Australian Border Force can exploit AI

Our ability to plan for crises, to reduce the uncertainties they present and to quickly diagnose the effectiveness of our actions in novel scenarios—all of this opens up a conversation about the possibilities and challenges …