Maintaining a steady path on Iran

24 May 2013

IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Austria.On 22 May, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) released a new report on Iran’s nuclear activities. Nothing in it was particularly shocking, but like the many similar reports that preceded this one, it’s a stark reminder of the international community’s failure to halt Iran’s nuclear progress, despite over 10 years of diplomatic and covert efforts. According to technical experts, despite a series of UN Security Council sanctions and other autonomous sanctions imposed by individual states, Iran has made progress across the board in its nuclear program. It has stepped up the pace of uranium enrichment, increased the volume of material that it is enriching to a higher level (not quite weapons grade, but most of the way there), and is pushing ahead with a program to produce plutonium. At the same time, satellite photos indicate that Iran is trying to conceal evidence that it conducted nuclear weapon-relevant experiments at a site in Parchin. Amid these revelations, diplomats working at IAEA headquarters in Vienna have been quietly sharing their concerns, warning that Iran has significantly reduced the time it would need to produce a crude nuclear device.

These are worrying developments, and yet the Gillard government’s response to the Iran nuclear threat receives very little coverage in the national media. This may be due to an assumption that, because Australia is strategically remote from the Gulf region, and is not among the six states that have taken the lead on diplomatic negotiations (the so-called P5+1: China, France, Russia, the UK, the US plus Germany), Canberra doesn’t have a significant role to play. But this isn’t the case. Despite a history of strong trade relations and political engagement with Iran, which were hardly disrupted by the Iranian Revolution and US hostage crisis, Australia has taken a strong and consistent stand against Iran’s nuclear defiance.

In October 2008, Australia became one of the first states to impose unilateral sanctions on Tehran for its nuclear activities. These sanctions have been expanded and tightened through additional legislation in July 2010, August 2012, and January 2013. Since 2011, DFAT (which is responsible for implementing the sanctions) has been engaged in intensive bilateral, regional and multilateral discussions on Iran’s nuclear program—engagement that has deepened since Australia took up its non-permanent seat on the Security Council in January this year.  The current Chair of the UNSC Iran Sanctions Committee is Gary Quinlan, Australia’s Permanent Representative to the UN, who, along with Foreign Minister Bob Carr, has been moving Australia’s position on Iran closer to the EU’s tough stance.

The latest, gloomy IAEA report might encourage Australia to tighten its unilateral Iran sanctions still further, in an effort to slow Iran’s progress and buy more time for diplomatic negotiations. This would be a reasonable step. At the same time, it’s important that Canberra maintains its efforts to engage the regime, and avoids the path taken by Canada—a fellow big hitter on the international non-proliferation circuit. After years of nurturing diplomatic ties, Canada closed its embassy in Tehran in 2012, severed diplomatic relations, and has announced that from next week it will boycott the Conference of Disarmament, because the Chair is due to pass to Iran.  In many ways, this is an easier path to take, avoiding the difficult balancing act that comes with trying to combine punitive measures with continued diplomatic engagement. But international isolation strongly reinforces proliferation pressures and exacerbates nuclear defiance. Severing of diplomatic ties will also make it much more difficult for Canada to engage with the moderate elements in Iranian society; elements that might one day force a change in the regime and trigger a major rethink of the country’s nuclear aspirations.

This kind of reversal has occurred on a number of occasions (most dramatically in the case of South Africa, which dismantled a program that had produced several nuclear bombs), but anyone hoping that a similar moment could be approaching in Iran is likely to be disappointed. The upcoming Presidential election is unlikely to change very much, given that the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei calls the shots on Iran’s nuclear decision-making. It was Khamenei who convinced Ayatollah Khomeini—his predecessor and the father of the Iranian revolution—to restart the nuclear program that had been mothballed since the overthrow of the Shah. Khamenei has been in the driving seat ever since, and as long as he remains there, there’ll be very limited opportunities for external actors to influence the country’s nuclear ambitions.

The challenge for Australia is to use its influence in the Security Council and the Iran sanctions committee to urge other states to maintain a steady path on Iran (despite the obvious frustrations), just as Canberra has done since 2008. This will become more difficult as the lead time on an Iranian breakout capability continues to narrow, and pressure for military strikes increases. But the use of force isn’t a viable option where Iran’s nuclear program is concerned, because it wouldn’t attract sufficient international support and the risks would likely outweigh the benefits (PDF).

Tanya Ogilvie-White is a senior analyst at ASPI. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

Walking among giants: Australia and Indonesia between the US and China

24 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Republic of Indonesia Sailors render honors as the guided missile destroyer USS Momsen (DDG 92) arrives in Jakarta, Indonesia. Momsen, along with more than 1,000 Sailors and Marines are participating in Cooperation Afloat Readiness and Training (CARAT) Indonesia 2013.

As mentioned on The Strategist, last week ASPI convened its first ‘Australia–Indonesia Next Generation Defence & Security Forum’ to discuss the state and future of the relationship. I talked about the strategic implications of the US-Sino relationship for the two countries, both individually and in a bilateral context.

How the US and China manage their relations is of key importance for Australia and Indonesia. Greater strategic competition could lead to serious conflict, even war, with devastating consequences. But accommodating any Chinese hegemonic ambitions could easily come at the cost of smaller powers and is therefore neither in Australia’s, nor Indonesia’s interests.

Luckily, US-China strategic relations are characterised by both cooperation and competition. As the new Australian Defence White Paper (DWP) stresses, this situation allows Australia (and I’d add, Indonesia) to avoid binary choices between Washington and Beijing. Our strategic interactions with the two major powers are not mechanistic ‘zero sum games’ in which cooperation with one country automatically comes at the expense of the other. We don’t (yet) live in a Cold War-type Asia and it’s far from inevitable that we’ll enter into such a period any time soon.

That said, as regional uncertainty about China’s strategic trajectory grows, being an ally to the United States is more beneficial than being non-aligned. For Australia at least, the best approach to walking among the two giants is a hierarchical one. Our alliance with the United States doesn’t stop us trading with China, or even from developing some degree of strategic cooperation.  At the same time, when it comes to defence policy the US will always be our primary choice.

The recent Australia–China agreement to hold annual high-level strategic talks and conduct more military exercises is a case in point. It didn’t raise any eyebrows with the US. Washington knows that Australia is a reliable ally and that the more the Chinese military interacts with the outside world the better. And Beijing knows quite well that any attempt to drive a wedge between us and the US would be a futile exercise. Moreover, our alliance with the US facilitates a degree of independence in dealing with China. It’s precisely our strategic relationship with America that makes dealing with us important from a Chinese perspective, apart from our role as a resource provider. Finally, the US alliance provides Australian governments with some influence on the US in terms of how Australia would like to see the US-Sino strategic relationship evolve. That’s why the 2013 DWP argues that the government ‘expects’ both parties to manage their relations in a constructive manner to the benefit of the region.

When it comes to Indonesia, I’m not convinced that Jakarta’s ‘non-aligned’ (bebas aktif) foreign and security policy doctrine remains viable in the face of US-Chinese strategic interactions in Southeast Asia. Both Washington and Beijing will compete for influence in this area. But it’s China, not the United States, which challenges Indonesia’s security interests through its maritime claims in the ‘9-dash line‘. While the PLA does not yet have the capability to project significant military capability in waters close to Indonesia, it surely will in the future.

Non-alignment only works if you can protect your interests independently, including through the use of military power. The Indonesian armed forces are decades away from developing independent capabilities sufficient to protect Jakarta’s wider maritime interests. If accommodating China’s aggressive claims in Southeast Asia is undesirable for Jakarta, it will need to increase its political, diplomatic and also military toolbox. In other words, ‘hedging’ against China’s rise will become more important.

While this doesn’t mean that Indonesia needs to enter into any formal alliance arrangement, it means that increasing defence cooperation with countries such as the US, India and Australia could form the strategic backbone of what could be labelled as ‘modified non-alignment’. This would not preclude Indonesia from further developing strategic ties with Beijing. But as long as Indonesia can’t defend its maritime security interests independently in the face of rising China it will need more friends. Moreover, as its relative power grows, regional partners will expect Indonesia to play a more active security role in Southeast Asia.

Finally, Australia and Indonesia should discuss the military implications of a more crowded and competitive maritime Southeast Asia where both the US and Chinese military will have a greater presence. PLA activities in Southeast Asia will become more important for Indonesia—even more than for Australia given its closer proximity to contested maritime spaces. Moreover, fostering a common understanding between Canberra and Jakarta about the strategic implications of maritime chokepoints such as the Lombok Strait will be important given that the US ‘Air-Sea Battle’ concept and potential alternatives are partly based on ‘distant blockade’ strategies against China. In this context, Indonesia and Australia could also discuss trilateral exercises with the US Navy.

Walking with both the US and China is entirely possible without making confrontational choices. But it requires a strategy of signalling to China that coercion won’t have much chance of success. If China seriously considers challenging the United States in the Asia-Pacific then both Australia and Indonesia would have to make a choice—and I bet it won’t be China.

Benjamin Schreer is a senior analyst at ASPI. Image courtesy of US Navy.

The end of Suharto

24 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Mr. Suharto presented his address of resignation as President of the Republic of Indonesia at Merdeka Palace Jakarta, 21 May 1998.

This week marks 15 years since Indonesian cities erupted in violence in early May 1998. Burdened with economic hardship from the East Asian Financial Crisis and fatigued with political corruption, Indonesians took to the street and, amid clashes with armed forces, demanded an end to Suharto’s 31-year rule. On 21 May, Suharto resigned as president (video) and the New Order was over.

Over the past 15 years, Indonesia has developed in various ways since Suharto left centre stage.

For one, after Suharto’s departure, under a series of reforms during the period known as reformasi, democracy took the place of autocracy. According to Freedom House, Indonesia is currently rated ‘free’ and an ‘electoral democracy’. The country has made substantial gains both in its own right and when compared to other democracies in East Asia like Thailand and the Philippines. As Ed Aspinall sees it, Indonesia is judged as being the most democratic system in Southeast Asia.

But there is a note of caution to add: conservatives have wound back reforms in electoral management, counter-corruption and minority rights, and there’s no guarantee that civil society can hold back further attacks on reform. That said, taking a long-view, it’s a far more open political system than its predecessor in which few credible political alternatives existed. As we look to 2014’s presidential election, democracy might very well deliver some surprises for us: will Prabowo or the wild card Jokowi make it to the Presidential Palace?

Since the New Order, Indonesia has developed active media that’s currently rated by Freedom House as ‘partly free’. Indonesia’s ‘citizen journalists’ can express their satisfaction (or dissatisfaction) directly and openly to the President—even via his Twitter account. But several of the main news networks are controlled by a handful of players with vested interests, so it remains to be seen whether we can expect independent coverage of the upcoming election.

The military has made substantial strides towards reform, withdrawing from politics and revenue-raising practices. But worries remain. The recent case of Kopassus revenge killings in a Yogyakarta prison raises questions about a culture of impunity and human rights abuses, although relatively swift action by military leaders to reassign those responsible for their soldiers’ actions is a positive sign that TNI is aware of the damage these cases wreak on their perception of a professional military. The establishment of a hotline for public complaints and more talk of military discipline law in the past month alone are steps, even if baby ones, in the right direction. The police needs to follow this move towards greater accountability. Indonesia is still a country with work to do on the rule of law, especially combating corruption and broader reforms to promote a more stable environment for investment.

Lacking large reserves of capital, investment is vital for Indonesia’s continued economic growth. Under the New Order, economic growth steamed ahead at unprecedented rates, at times over 7%. This was the result of a policy of integration with the global market. In some ways it turned out to be a house of cards which came tumbling down in 1997 as Indonesia buckled to the East Asian financial crisis. Since then, the economy has rebuilt and has achieved, on average, a respectable 6% growth over the past few years and is expected to stay around that level.

However, there are concerns that Indonesia’s economy could be let down by a lack of infrastructure, high levels of corruption and slow increases in average incomes. Other economists warn that growth driven by services and commodities might not be enough to sustain high growth rates and that the manufacturing sector requires greater investment. Other ongoing issues include income inequality and increasing fuel subsidies, which also diverts money away from infrastructure investment.

And it remains to be seen how Indonesia’s accumulated riches from its economy will benefit the majority of the 240 million inhabitants of the archipelago. The test case of Jakarta’s newly implemented health care system shows signs of trouble (video) and raises doubts about the viability of programs in towns with fewer hospitals and doctors.

There are other aspects of Indonesia that are at risk of flaring up and undermining its stability. Inter-religious and inter-ethnic violence in areas like Poso in Sulawesi and the threat of terrorism against local targets will require greater attention by security forces.

It’s been a big decade and a half. And at the macro level it’s an almost entirely a good-news story. But, especially for Australia, it’s important to understand that Indonesia’s circumstances at the ground level are more nuanced. Whether Indonesia can be expected to meet our enthusiasm about Asian Century initiatives might depend on its capacity on fixing pressing domestic issues first. Much has changed since Suharto, but some things have stayed the same.

Natalie Sambhi is an analyst at ASPI and editor of The Strategist. Image courtesy of Wikimedia Commons.

A view from across the ditch

23 May 2013
Posted in: General By

HMNZS Canterbury, 3 Sqn, Air Force Communications, 3LFG Platoon and Deployable Hydrographic Survey Unit are to participate in EX CROIX DU SUD, a joint exercise comprising of assets from Australia, France, Tonga, Papa New Guinea and Vanuatu over the period 28 Mar 08 to 12 Apr 08.

I’m in New Zealand at the moment, attending a public symposium on future security issues. It’s an interesting model for this sort of discussion. We have a room full—and I mean full as the forum has been heavily oversubscribed—of military, government officials, academics, students, journalists (who let them in?) and interested laypeople from a wide range of backgrounds. It’s a mix I haven’t seen in Australia, and I think it reflects the benefit of having a small community of national security practitioners.

Some of the discussion topics are very familiar, including the pros and cons of manoeuvring for a UN Security Council position. (I wonder if there is such a thing as Kiwi candy to help out?) But the discussion had a different tone to the one we went through in Australia. The pro position in Australia was about us realising our influence as a middle power. Here in Wellington, it’s more about New Zealand being a good global citizen and doing its bit to make the world a better place. And there’s a lot more discussion about the responsibilities or expectations that would come with a UN seat. For example, whether New Zealand will be pressed to take part in UN peacekeeping and stabilisation operations in far flung places, especially as its commitments in Afghanistan, Timor-Leste and Solomon Islands wind down. Read more

The reawakening of New Zealand’s security relationship with the United States is seen a positive here, but there’s a distinct subtext of ‘but only because it was done on our terms’. A significant cooling of Australia’s relationship with the US would be a political disaster for the incumbent government in Canberra. In Wellington it’s almost a badge of honour—at least in retrospect. Here, giving ground to the US in order to further the relationship, especially on nuclear issues, would be widely unpopular.

Similarly, New Zealand’s view of China is different to Australia’s. Like us, they see the economic opportunities of greater trade with a growing giant. Unlike us, they don’t see themselves wedged between the US and China. To an extent I think that’s due to a more cautious embrace of American power, but I think it’s mostly a more accurate assessment of China’s levers of power. (Though the local paper noted today that China stopped tonnes of New Zealand frozen meat on the waterfront for ‘lacking proper paperwork’ about the same time New Zealand is closing a free trade deal with Taiwan.)

Of most interest to me, however, were discussions of military strategy and force structure. I said some nice things about Kiwi thinking about strategy and budgets here on The Strategist recently. And I think that was a reasonably accurate assessment. The NZDF has a reasonably well-defined role and understands what it’s being asked to do. But, just like Australia, there’s a disconnect between aspiration and resourcing. While it’s an obvious point, I should have added a caveat in my series of blog pieces (parts one, two and three) on matching Australia’s aspiration, ADF capability and the defence budget: even a modest strategy needs adequate funding. Lowering the bar on capability goals won’t in itself solve the resourcing problem if the funding is lowered even further.

That seems to be a real risk the NZDF is facing. New Zealand’s defence budget (PDF) is currently about US$2.1 billion, or a bit over 1% of local GDP. Over the next few years that share is likely to drop to below 1%. At the same time, the RNZAF is going to have to replace its C-130 Hercules fleet—an absolutely essential capability for a country with at least a three hour flight to pretty much anywhere. Beyond that, it faces the task of replacing its ageing P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircraft and its Anzac frigates. There’s real concern here about the ability to do that. Part of the problem seems to be the baseline of the depreciation funding model that’s been adopted, but that was hardly incalculable, and actually shows the lack of priority being given to defence funding.

Australia’s force structure solutions aren’t helping. Our recent purchases of C-17 has given the RAAF’s airlift capability a big boost, and the decision to buy new C-27 battlefield air lifters makes a lot of sense with Australia’s regional geography. New Zealand probably can’t afford a C-17 purchase (although a share arrangement with Australia might make sense and hasn’t been ruled out) and the C-27 isn’t at all a good fit. And if Australia continues with its bigger and more capable line of thought about the future frigate program, we’ll produce a vessel that won’t fit New Zealand’s requirements and will far outstrip their purchasing power. There’s nothing unusual about this situation, and I’ve written frequently about the stresses on defence budgets caused by the rising generational cost of military equipment. But when you’re already on a small scale and a pretty lean budget, it starts to look like an existential threat.

The net result is a real question mark over the continuing ability of the NZDF to execute the tasks identified for it. The consensus here seems to be that the minimum capability required is air and sea lift in support of stabilisation and peacekeeping operations, and the ability to put a battalion on the ground if required (around 600 personnel). As well, everyone agrees that New Zealand needs a maritime constabulary capability. I think there’s a critical question to be asked if capability drops below the level required to reliably meet such requirements—at what stage does a defence force stop being worth having? If you can’t plan on being able to conduct even low level operations, do you end up with an expensive civil response capability which doesn’t add to your external national power base?

To be clear, New Zealand is far from that point at the moment, but it’s not a preposterous prospect given the resourcing environment and the current trend. The message I’ve taken away from this meeting is that our mates across the Tasman have some hard thinking to do. New Zealand is a commendably independent country which can make tough decisions and devise its own strategy. But, like us, they’re having trouble matching those strategies with the resources required to support them.

Andrew Davies is a senior analyst for defence capability at ASPI and executive editor of The Strategist. Image courtesy of Flickr user New Zealand Defence Force.

Mao now

23 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Mao's Mausoleum

Mao Zedong is the only 20th dictator to have a resurgence of life-after-death that is largely benign. A heavy influence on the 20th century, Mao was a major force in the history of Communist ideas and rule, and will be a great name in Chinese history. As a man of supreme power also possessing a doctrine, he is arguably unmatched in Chinese history. After successfully uniting China under his CCP in 1949, and following the Soviet model, he later pushed utopian policies culminating in the appalling Cultural Revolution of the 1960s. Then he surprised the world again by welcoming anti-Communist Nixon to Beijing in 1972, transforming a bipolar world into a triangle, greatly to the disadvantage of Moscow.

Chinese compare Mao with the hardline emperor Qin Shihuang  (think terracotta soldiers) of two millennia ago. Westerners compare him with 20th century authoritarians Stalin and Hitler. But in the four decades since he was laid in a crystal box—displayed still at Tiananmen Square in the heart of Beijing—Mao’s ‘life after death’ has nothing in common with the posthumous fate of Stalin and Hitler. Read more

Yes, Deng Xiaoping criticised Mao, but did not vilify him as Germans did Hitler, or denounce him as Moscow did Stalin. Deng declared Mao 70% correct and 30% mistaken, hoping to forestall further perilous debate; meanwhile, he subtly dismantled Mao’s leftism and focused on economic development. He summed up his task-orientation: “I don’t care whether the cat is black or white, as long as it catches the mouse”. Mao lived long enough to be the ‘Marx-Lenin-Stalin rolled into one’ of the Chinese Revolution. Deng needed just the Lenin part.

But the departed tyrant, to Deng’s irritation, experienced a life after death among Chinese farmers and youth, especially taxi drivers who hung a photo of him on the steering wheel to ward off accidents. Department stores used a model of Mao to display silk pajamas. Nightclub singers crooned songs that cited Mao’s words. Farmers clutched a Mao image as they fended off flood waters.

Some of this was nostalgia for Mao that reflected disappointment with Deng. Portraits of Mao printed for public sale leapt from 370,000 copies in a couple of years to 23 million and soon to 50 million. In Karaoke clubs young people enjoyed songs in praise of him, and even Mao temples appeared in the southeast.

Only once since 1976 has Mao been needed politically. Post-Tiananmen, the government plastered walls with Mao quotations and revived the heroic Lei Feng myth (“I am a cog in the machine of Chairman Mao’s Communist Party”). However, this phase was aborted by the collapse of the Soviet Union and Deng’s ensuing decision to cancel the leftist surge and promote stock exchanges.

After Deng died in 1997, new leader Jiang Zemin sought to place himself alongside Mao and Deng as a third milestone on China’s march to 20th century greatness. He associated himself with Mao’s grandson Mao Xinyu at the time of the centennial of Mao’s birth, to unveil a ten-meter-tall bronze statue of the Chairman. But no public enthusiasm was evident.

Today Xi Jinping quotes Mao approvingly, but the CCP mentions him less. The giant of 20th century China wafts into folklore, famous there like the Yellow Emperor, the Goddess of Mercy and other near-mythical figures.

The Olympic Games of 2008 seemed a set-back for Mao’s life-after-death. Many foreigners and maybe many Chinese wondered at the mention of Confucius but not Mao in the opening and closing ceremonies. Was it because Mao was a bone-deep Chinese nationalist, while the Olympic Games was about globalisation as well as about China?

Some say leftism could one day resurge in China under a Mao banner in the name of national unity, Chinese cultural pride, and economic equality. Mao’s grandson and thousands of activist intellectuals praise the Cultural Revolution on ‘Utopia’ and other websites. Others foresee a post-communist China falling into disorder, as happened in parts of the former Soviet Union, and Mao pressed into the service of fascism in the name of order, heroic leadership, and national pride.

If the 21st century is China’s, Mao may be seen as founder of a Golden Age. If China meets major trouble in trying to reconcile a new economy with a little-changed political system, he might be blamed for the entire communist experiment. Either way he might be viewed as a populist dictator with various strands to his thoughts, including anarchism, Confucianism, Marxism, Daoism, and fascism.

A Chinese tradition exists of leaders moving back and forth between real life and legend-dom. If smokers become a despised minority in 20–30 years, they may rally around the memory of Mao as a patron saint to validate their liking for cigarettes. Already, tourists to Jinggangshan mountains, a Mao base, toss unlit cigarettes onto Mao’s old wooden bed in remembrance of one who loved to smoke. This impulse has little to do with the issue of smoking and health, of course, but expresses a nostalgic affinity, attractive to people half-anxious at their smoking, across the boundary between today’s world and an ethereal world.

Last year I observed youth dining in a ‘Cultural Revolution-style’ café of rough-hewn tables with Mao quotations on the wall while chatting about sex and the stock market. In rural China the departed giant means more: a flawed emperor who remains a benign father figure. For the Communist Party, Mao still is serious business, a Lenin who is the on-going legitimation for its grip on power.

Ross Terrill of Harvard’s Centre for Chinese Studies is a visiting international senior fellow at ASPI. His biography of Mao is well known in China. Image courtesy of Flickr user Jorge Lascar.

What’s an Australian defence industry for? Part II

22 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Minister for Defence, Stephen Smith talks to one of the ASC (formerly Australian Submarine Corporation) employees during his visit to ASC.

At the state and company level the objectives a defence industry strategy might seek to achieve look different to those at the federal level that were discussed earlier (here and here). They’re broader in scope, worry more about resources and are sharper in bite.

For the states their defence industry objectives are generally fairly pragmatic: bringing in money and/or jobs. This is often somewhat undiscerning in that any kind of money and any kind of jobs are sought—although a premium may be paid (literally) for sustainability as will be discussed later. The net result is that at the state level the defence industry sector is conceptually broader then at the federal level, in encompassing acquisition projects, long-term sustainment and ADF basing.

At one end of the continuum between jobs and money, Victoria perhaps focuses mainly on money, wanting simply a robust defence industry that contributes to Victorian economic growth and prosperity. High-value, innovative manufacturing is favoured, being considered to give the best return on investment. Queensland is at the other end of the spectrum in mainly seeking jobs, as its submission to the White Paper that stressed expanding the ADF presence in South East Queensland, Cairns and Townsville reveals. Read more

With a quarter of the ADF based in Queensland this is good business in terms of bringing regular money to the local economy. And with most base services and deeper level maintenance now privatised, it provides a nice state payroll tax income as well. In this, there’s also extensive local industry involvement in on-going base development. Queensland last year attracted the largest share of the ADF Major Capital Facilities Program funding, some $440 million. (In passing, it should be noted that Queensland is rebalancing, noting that defence manufacturing is a high-value activity.)

South Australia has made the biggest defence play of the States. A decade ago it focussed mainly on money in terms of helping local companies try to win work on major equipment projects—think Collins Class submarines and the Air Warfare Destroyers. Since then though the state has also focussed on gaining jobs from ADF units moving into the Adelaide region. Relocating 7 RAR from Darwin to Adelaide has brought some $600m in facility construction but also some 1200 soldiers and about the same number of dependants, generating about $100m extra local income annually. The State’s ambitions are clearly articulated in its strategic plan: “Increase defence and defence industry annual contribution to our economy to $2.5 billion and employment to 37,000 people by 2020.” This is of course a zero-sum game with SA’s gains being at the loss of another state as the 7RAR move out of Darwin suggests, albeit the NT’s loss in this case is outweighed somewhat by the US Marines moving into the now vacant barracks.

The straightforward economic imperative means that, much more than at the Federal department level, the state defence industry strategies must also be concerned about resources: skilled manpower, money and material. Gaining benefits can require investments in the state’s education system that skills the staff companies need, providing monetary incentives, relaxing regulatory frameworks and even building facilities for industry to use. South Australia has invested some $300m of State money into shipbuilding infrastructure; this might give a good return on investment over time, but isn’t necessarily something the Defence Department would have undertaken by itself.

Economic considerations also impel the states to think seriously about their defence industries being sustainable, resulting in a higher value placed on commercial spin-offs, dual-use production and exports. (As well, it must be said, as trying to lock in as much federal defence work as possible, for as long as possible.) Civil sector work and exports are aspects that the Defence Department is spared from being overly involved in. For Defence if a local defence company fails, so be it; for the state concerned it bites close to home. The flip-side though is that commercial sales and exports can bring the state further money and jobs. Defence gains little tangible from a local company being successful in these fields.

Companies are the targets of the federal and state defence industry strategies and so have a keen interest in them. At this level, the economic imperative looms larger still, although companies have an option denied the other levels—they can opt to leave the defence business altogether.

Company decisions to stay or go hinge on the level of certainty relating to new and existing business. With many Australian defence companies—especially the larger ones—having little income from exports or the civil markets, their investment decisions (PDF) are driven by their perceptions and the realities of how the Department of Defence chooses to spend the money allocated to it. Turbulence in defence budgets, the favouring of off-shore suppliers, reform programs and sudden withdrawals of equipment from service can all have serious commercial impacts (PDF). While there is much talk (PDF) of partnerships, collaboration, innovation, incentives and skilling, these are simply means to an end. The key objective of defence industry strategies from a company perspective is certainty in terms of a predictable flow of work (PDF).

Strategies are simply ways that means are used to achieve ends. Defence industry strategies need to have specific objectives clearly articulated before meaningful progress can be made on ways and means. But these objectives differ between the federal (political and departmental), state and company levels. These levels don’t just interact, but are interdependent, with change at one level positively or negatively impacting the others. The ‘trick’ in making successful industry strategies and avoiding incoherent ones is then having objectives that are sensible and supportive across all levels. Not an easy task!

Peter Layton is undertaking a research PhD in grand strategy at UNSW, and has been an associate professor of national security strategy at the US National Defense University. Image courtesy of Department of Defence.

Putting the CAP into capability

22 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Since the Defence White Paper 2013 emphasises the Defence of Australia, it’s useful to look at where we would be able to project force under the cover of our own airbases by having a standing fighter patrol, or ‘Combat Air Patrol’ (CAP) overhead. The picture that emerges is perhaps surprisingly limited.

The map below shows approximate ranges for that air cover. The concentric lines are our best guess at the distances at which an air-to-air configured F-35 JSF aircraft can remain on station for an hour. The inner line is the unrefuelled range, while the outer one assumes that a tanker aircraft can refuel the F-35 at 500 nm range from base. (This in turn assumes that the tanker itself—which would represent a high-value target for an adversary—can be safely operated at that distance.)

Figure 2. Approximate ranges from Australian bases at which an F-35 JSF aircraft could remain on station for an hour. The inner line is for unrefueled aircraft. The outer line assumes an air-to-air refuelling at 500nm from base. (Source: ranges estimated from December 2009 Selected Acquisition report data.) Range rings for the Super Hornet with a weapons payload would be smaller.

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These range curves show where Australia’s fixed-wing air power, if limited to bases on Australian soil, will be able to establish air cover for operations close to the mainland, although care needs to be taken in interpreting the diagram. Whether we can marshal sufficient numbers of aircraft to outgun an adversary is another question entirely. A single aircraft can remain on station for an hour at the outer edges of the range rings—maintaining two or more aircraft on station continuously would demand a rate of effort that would quickly run down the Air Force’s capability. However, provided the tanker aircraft can be protected, there will be at least some capability to extend air cover into some—but not all—of the ‘immediate neighbourhood’ as identified in the White Paper; Indonesia, Papua New Guinea, East Timor, New Zealand and the South Pacific Islands.

But this doesn’t imply either that the Air Force’s capability is sufficient or insufficient to provide for the defence of Australia and its immediate environs, or to conduct maritime strike operations—that will depend on the scale of force brought by an adversary and the dispersal of those forces. It’s much easier—although still resource intensive—to maintain an air presence close to home, because the crucial elements are distance, access to basing, and timing. The further the aircraft have to operate from their base, the harder it is to maintain an operational tempo. A corollary of this point is any would-be aggressor would have difficulty in sustaining an air presence close to our shores.

If we wanted the ADF to be able to provide air cover for the entire immediate neighbourhood, then we would need to use bases located in other countries. If we were helping a neighbour defend themselves we would be granted access. If a neighbour was attacking us or providing passage to someone else to attack us, we would not be granted access. That leaves the case of uninvolved third parties. While that’s possible in principle—Australia’s interests might well align with an otherwise uninvolved party—it can’t be guaranteed. If we wanted to support air operations from a base located in a neighbour’s country, for a conflict which that neighbour wasn’t a part of, it would be reasonable for them to say no.

It’s possible that this picture will change in the future with the emergence of long-range drones suitable for air to air as well as air to ground tasks. But that day is a probably a long way off yet, although we should remember Moore’s Law when making such predictions.

This picture should be compulsory reading for anyone contemplating ADF maritime power projection operations. Unless they are relatively close to home, they’ll be done without persistent fixed wing air cover. Of course, a DDG (air warfare destroyer) along with a task group would provide protection against air attack to a point, but we’ve just rediscovered why USN battle groups have a carrier sitting in the middle.

Andrew Davies is a senior analyst for defence capability at ASPI and executive editor of The Strategist.

Business or plunder: international corruption robbing Africa’s poor

21 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Mapping Africa's mineral wealth

Africa is a resource-rich continent, but most of its people live in extreme poverty. Amid the world’s resources boom and high global demand, Africa’s vast oil, gas and mineral resources have the potential to drastically improve and transform the lives of African populations.

So why do some of the world’s poorest people live in one of the world’s most resource-abundant regions? And, as Australian business, investment and trade with African countries increase, how can this economic injustice simply be ignored?

Global momentum to address the current dismal state of affairs is mounting, and Australia needs to take an active part in efforts to ensure greater transparency and accountability in Africa’s resources sector and international transactions. Read more

The Africa Progress Report is produced by the African Progress Panel and published in May each year. The panel’s composed of influential business and political figures and is chaired by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan. Its mandate is to ‘advocate at the highest levels for equitable and sustainable development in Africa’.

This year’s Africa Progress Report—released at the World Economic Forum meeting in Cape Town—focuses on the extractive industries of oil, gas and mining. The report’s findings made headlines around the world, highlighting exactly why African populations aren’t yet fully benefiting from the continent’s resource wealth. It details the horrifying extent of the corrupt practices that plague Africa’s resource sectors and gives details of secret mining deals, the undervaluation of state assets, tax evasion and transfer pricing (moving profits to jurisdictions with lower tax). It’s estimated that transfer pricing is costing Africa $34 billon each year.

The report uses the mining sector in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) as a key example. It explains that the DRC ‘incurred losses of $1.36 billion between 2010 and 2012 as a result of the alleged undervaluation of state assets in five mining deals’. It states that ‘with some of the world’s richest mineral resources the DRC appears to be losing out because state companies are systematically undervaluing assets. Concessions have been made on terms that appear to generate large profits for foreign investors.’ And this while the Congolese are one of the world’s poorest populations.

Kofi Annan has said that ‘We [Africa] are not getting the revenues we deserve, often because of either corrupt practices, transfer pricing, tax evasion and all sorts of activities that deprive us of our due.’ Annan explained that Africa can’t remedy this loss of revenue alone: ‘the tax evasion, avoidance, secret bank accounts are problems for the world … so we all need to work together, particularly the G8, as they meet next month, to work to ensure we have a multilateral solution to this crisis.’ Annan described the current situation as akin to ‘taking food off the table of the poor’.

The key to battling corrupt practices that rob African populations of their resource wealth is improvements in the level of transparency and accountability in the resources sector and in the operation of international companies. For example, in Liberia and Guinea, mining contracts can now be scrutinised online by the public, in a bid to curb corruption in the sector.

Annan says he’s encouraged by the international multilateral response to the challenge, including legislation in the US (the Dodd–Frank Act) and Europe requiring extractive companies ‘to meet higher levels of disclosure’. He’s also buoyed by the fact that the British have put international cooperation on taxation on the agenda for the G8 summit meeting to be held next month.

A more prosperous Africa for all is a real possibility, and the international community has the most important role in making it a reality. As a responsible global player and with expertise in the extractive industries, Australia can make a valuable contribution to making sure that those who rob from the poor have nowhere to hide.

In Africa, the mining, oil and gas industries produce seven times the amount that the continent receives in donor aid. There’s a real possibility that sovereign wealth funds could be created to meet the needs and aspirations of future generations, using the huge revenues flowing in from resources sales. Perhaps they could take a form similar to the Norwegian sovereign wealth fund (the Government Pension Fund—Global) or be variations on Australia’s Future Fund. Capturing today’s wealth to help meet tomorrow’s national needs in Africa is an opportunity that shouldn’t be missed.

In conclusion, a final quote from the Africa Progress Panel:

Imagine an African continent where leaders use mineral wealth wisely to fund better health, education, energy, and infrastructure. Africa has oil, gas, platinum, diamonds, cobalt, copper, and more. If we use these resources wisely, they will improve the lives of millions of Africans.

Sabrina Joy Smith is a PhD candidate with the Centre for the Study of the Great Lakes region of Africa at the Institute for Development Studies and Management, Belgium. She is currently based in New South Wales. Infographic courtesy of Africa Progress Report 2013.

Marine protected areas across the Southern Ocean?

21 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Guest editor Anthony Bergin

East Antarctic map for MPAAt their annual Meeting in 2012, the 25 members of the Convention for the Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR) failed to come to agreement on the declaration of any specific Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). This was despite several years of discussions and clear commitments to the establishment of a representative system of MPAs within the Convention Area by 2012, the adoption of a small MPA providing protection to the South Orkney Islands southern shelf in 2009, and an agreement in 2011 of Conservation Measure 91-04 providing a general framework for the establishment of CCAMLR MPAs. States are happy to commit to protecting the continent (and reap the benefits of looking proactive) but seem to lack the willpower to follow through.

CCAMLR considered three proposals for MPAs at this meeting: the Ross Sea region MPA proposed jointly by NZ and USA; the East Antarctic Representative System of MPAs proposed jointly by Australia, France and the EU; and the Antarctic Peninsula Ice Shelves (put forward by the EU). Read more

And while all members had participated in the preceding discussions and the associated consensus decisions leading to the presentation of the specific MPAs, when push came to shove, a number of members couldn’t support any of the proposals on the table. The Ice Shelves proposal was withdrawn following strong opposition from some.

Both of the remaining proposals have been through multiple rounds of scientific analysis and provide significant dispensation to existing and future fishing activities, and the EA proposal encourages multiple use for activities consistent with the protection of the values for which the MPAs are being designated. Yet, Russia felt their scientific contribution was not fully reflected in the proposals; China was unsure if there was sufficient science to support the proposals. In addition, there’s a strong push for any MPA to have clear designated expiry date, to ensure that future fishing interests are not constrained.

Article II of CCAMLR establishes conservation and the precautionary and ecosystem approach at the core of CCAMLR’s decisions. This means that conservation objectives can’t be limited by the state of scientific knowledge and that management decisions must take account of uncertainty associated with imperfect knowledge and should be ‘precautionary’ (ie conservative) in the absence of complete knowledge. But increasingly members are choosing to ignore these convention fundamentals and prefer to view CCAMLR as a fisheries management regime.

CCAMLR members did agree to come together for a special session this year in Bremerhaven, Germany prior to their annual meeting in October to attempt to find agreement on the designation of the two MPA proposals before them.

All CCAMLR member governments have an opportunity at a meeting this June to reaffirm their commitment and belief in the basic tenets of the Convention they have signed and to the commitments they’ve made by consensus over the last years to the establishment of a representative system of MPAs.

They’ve shown they’re willing to talk the big talk – now they need to show they can take action – and designate large scale marine reserves and other marine protected areas covering substantial areas in the Convention Area.

As one of the last great wildernesses, the Southern Ocean is an exceptional place and deserves special recognition, not to mention respect and commitment from those governments who have chosen to manage it.

Lyn Goldsworthy is a senior advisor to the Antarctic and Southern Ocean Coalition.

Australia–Indonesia relations: all marriages need effort

Group shot of the ASPI-Defence 1.5 track dialogue with Indonesia (photo credit: Luke Wilson, ASPI)The Australia–Indonesia relationship is headed in a broadly positive direction, with the potential for defence and security cooperation to grow. But people-to-people and economic links are surprisingly limited and more needs to be done to build ballast into a relationship often at risk due to misperceptions. These are our personal conclusions after ASPI’s inaugural ‘Australia–Indonesia Next Generation Defence & Security Forum’ in Sydney, 14 to 16 May. With the support of the Department of Defence, we brought together 20 Australian and Indonesian participants from the military, academia, government departments and think tanks for two days of 1.5 track discussion on pressing defence and strategic issues. To encourage frankness, the meeting was held under the Chatham House Rule, so we won’t attribute comments to individuals, rather we’ll offer our own impressions of the meeting.

There were several key themes that emerged from the presentations and discussion. For one, maps made an appearance in several instances—a salient reminder that geography is one of the key forces that necessitates greater Indonesia–Australia cooperation. Some presenters used maps to articulate an Indonesian perspective of our strategic environment and its security challenges. In one case, the visual representation of Indonesia’s archipelagic sea-lanes and their vulnerability to foreign vessels highlighted Indonesia’s need for greater investment in naval capabilities as well as for maritime cooperation.

Several speakers also looked at future prospects for the bilateral relationship. One speaker asked, ‘What should the relationship feel like in 20 years?’, the implication being that national sentiment and the degree of ‘warmth’ each country felt for the other would set the course towards stronger strategic ties down the track. For example, interoperability between our militaries (and even officers serving in each other’s battalions) was proposed as a desirable end. Yet several participants challenged this idea, on the grounds that interoperability entails greater compatibility between our systems than is commonly understood and greater congruence between our respective strategic cultures was still needed. Read more

One issue that spurred particularly heated discussion was Papua which, as Peter and Gary Hogan have previously noted on The Strategist, is an area of potential tension between our countries. While the Indonesian participants acknowledged Australia’s official line of recognising Indonesian sovereignty over Papua, some were wary about our commitment to this position. One speaker noted that although Indonesian officials were aware of the Lombok Treaty’s wording on Papua, regular high-level policy coordination between our sides might assist in making our position even clearer. Others talked about bringing Papua New Guinea into a dialogue with Indonesia to discuss the province and other common strategic issues. What was clear from the sometimes heated exchanges around the table was that such frank discussion reflected the trust and confidence in the room, but this isn’t always apparent in the wider relationship.

As with many dialogues on defence and security in the Asia-Pacific, discussion about the strategic position of China and the United States was prominent. There were diverse views but an opinion common to many was that the US remained central to regional confidence and stability. A number of participants thought that Washington needed to do a better job of explaining its broader strategic purpose. Some also said there needed to be a clearer statement of purpose made for the enhanced cooperation between the US and Australia in our north. Showing that all politics is ultimately local, a number of delegates pointed to perceptions (reportedly held by some in Indonesia) that the US Marine Corps deployment was targeted towards protecting US mining interests in Papua. That proposition would likely bemuse US policy makers in both the Pentagon and State Department, but it points to the deep investment needed to build closer relations and trust.

On China’s rise, many participants are watching developments in the South China Sea very closely, especially with an eye to any potential impacts on the security of sea-borne trade. Many in Indonesia are acutely aware of their country’s growing strategic importance and the way in which geography is creating a greater global interest in the region and its vital sea-lanes. There was deep discussion at the dialogue on how Indonesia should respond to this emerging strategic role. Should Jakarta move away from its traditionally non-aligned approach, or does its current foreign policy settings adequately protect its interests? There was broad endorsement for closer ties with Australia and interest in the possibility that such cooperation might include more joint effort on maritime security. But it would be premature to suggest that there’s widespread agreement as to how the bilateral relationship should be deepened.

One particularly amusing and insightful presentation compared the Australia–Indonesia relationship to a marriage. And if the analogy is right, for reasons of proximity, history, interest and mutual benefit, the case for keeping the marriage of a rather unlikely couple together is very strong: even the best relationships have ups and downs. There remains some cause to wish that the two countries understood each other better but a lack of Indonesian language training in Australia and similarly a lack of a strong Indonesian interest in studying Australia don’t help. But participants agreed that individuals and groups in both countries would continue to highlight differences of interest, if not of values, between the two countries. The challenge for Australia and Indonesia is to learn to love each other with all our faults and differences, rather than to make those blemishes grounds for splitting up.

Peter Jennings is executive director at ASPI, and Natalie Sambhi is an analyst at ASPI and editor of The Strategist. Image credit: Luke Wilson, ASPI.

What’s an Australian defence industry for? Part I

20 May 2013
Posted in: General By

Oberon class HMAS Oxley sits in Fitzroy Dock at Cockatoo Island dockyard, in an Intermediate docking, 1970.The Queensland government has recently appointed a defence envoy to bolster defence industries in the state. In this it joins other states and the federal government in actively adopting defence industry sector strategies. But for strategies to be effective, they must be built on a clear understanding of the objectives sought. There are several different objectives that a defence industry strategy could be potentially optimised for. At the fundamental level this raises the question of what an Australian defence industry is for.

Where you stand on this issue may depend greatly on where you sit. In this post we’ll look at the federal level, leaving the state and company levels for later. The federal level comprises both the government as a political entity and below this the departmental levels, particularly Defence, Finance and Treasury.

At the political level there’s currently a focus on defence industry providing jobs—but not just any jobs, or indeed simply more jobs. Instead, the focus is on creating meaningful, well-skilled jobs in the manufacturing industry, as the current interest in naval shipbuilding attests to. This is by no means an unworthy objective; philosophically, contemporary liberal thinking stresses improving the life of individuals—what else does a society exist for? Read more

There are alternatives. Mercantilists would argue rather than helping individuals, the aim should be building national ‘hard’ power. The national defence industry should primarily seek to create national wealth, as money is fungible and can be used to increase national power in the most efficacious manner. A defence industry strategy would then be focussed on import substitution to the extent that it’s efficient, while exporting as much as possible.

In a different approach, some countries might consider the number of jobs—not their type or value—to be the most important criteria. Having more people gainfully employed can be important for political stability and can help lower income disparities.

Taking a less insular view, countries can use their defence industries as diplomatic tools to build stronger links with other countries. In joining with others there are secondary benefits of economies of scale and sharing R&D costs, but the primary aim which informs the requisite compromises and tradeoffs is to build interdependencies and entrench good relationships. ASEAN member states are tentatively (PDF) going down this path.

Of the departments of state, Treasury is charged to take a whole-of-economy view. An obvious market-centric strategy is to eschew interventionist industry strategies altogether, although current global troubles may commend a risk management alternative. With the global economy inherently prone to financial instability, having a balanced economy can provide greater resilience during the inevitable periodic economic crises. As one sector strikes trouble, another might improve, compensating for any downturn. Australia has strong primary and service industries and strengthening our relatively weak manufacturing sector, of which the defence industry is a significant part (PDF, pages 26-28), might be advantageous in the next economic crisis.

Such a re-balancing logic underpins the UK government’s ‘Plan for Growth‘ to return the country to economic health. In developing manufacturing in today’s globalised world, being part of global supply chains is seen as essential. For several years, Australian defence industry has been able to access Government support for joining such supply chains. This program has been relatively successful in terms of developing Australian manufacturing although it’s of marginal value to Defence. Building F-18 rudder pedals for example is undoubtedly good business, but of little importance for ADF operations.

The Defence Department has the luxury of being able to take a much more focussed approach in considering possible objectives for a defence industry strategy. Defence could potentially adopt an industry development strategy that sought to give ADF warfighters some unique capabilities that provide a distinct combat edge. US ‘black’ programs try to do this for American warfighters and, while some of these are very expensive, other niche areas like electronic or cyber warfare might be affordable. Such a defence industrial strategy almost by definition calls for supporting smart thinking rather than having deep pockets.

Defence has instead embraced strategies aimed at developing industry to maintain and sustain equipment purchased off-shore. There are two broad variations in this: build a national capability to be able to modify equipment on-shore to meet changing operational demands or, more simply, to just replace and sometimes fix broken equipment. The former was in vogue from the 1970s (PDF, para 270–272) until about the first decade of the 21st century (PDF, pages 5–6) when the capability development focus switched to new acquisitions and away from mid-life upgrades.

Over this time the argument has developed that the objective of an Australian defence industry strategy should be maximising ADF combat power and acquisition efficiency—getting the most bang for the defence buck. This idea was neatly encapsulated in the title of Andrew Davies recent blog post ‘Four ships for the price of six?’ which examined the difference between buying from the most efficient overseas source versus building warships on-shore.

There’s a range of objectives that governmental defence industry strategies could be based on and choices have to be made between them. All objectives aren’t equal, and any strategy seeking to embrace several would most likely be incoherent, ineffective and inefficient. At the state and company levels though the objectives are subtly different again, as we’ll discuss next time.

Peter Layton is undertaking a research PhD in grand strategy at UNSW, and has been an associate professor of national security strategy at the US National Defense UniversityImage courtesy of Flickr user Kookaburra2011.

ASPI suggests

20 May 2013
Posted in: General By

The Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force (JMSDF) helicopter destroyer JS Kurama (DDH 144) performs maneuvers during training as part of the integrated maritime exercise Koa Kai, November 2011.Michael O’Hanlon from Brookings has some ideas on how the US might spend its defence dollars given current fiscal constraints in his book Healing the Wounded Giant, including cutting ground forces, buying half of the planned 2,500 F-35s, and suggesting the Navy can get by with as low as 260 ships, rather than the planned 286. O’Hanlon and David Petraeus have an op-ed along the same lines as well.

On a related topic, here is an article on how to keep the US–China relationship from running off the rails.

In Japan, Prime Minister Abe is having some success the second time around:

Mr Abe’s dramatic rata-tat-tat of policy shifts has excited and enthused [the Japanese people]. His approval ratings, like the stockmarket, are booming.

His plans also appear to involve the first ever amendments to the 1947 constitution, including acknowledging Japan’s right to standing army, navy, and air force.

On the other side of the Indo-Pacific, the Lowy Institute has released its 2013 India poll. It tells us, among other things, that apparently 83% of Indians consider China a threat, and we in Australia are India’s fourth favourite country, behind the US, Singapore, and Japan.

And earlier this month the International Crisis Group has released a report on stability in Timor-Leste:

Timor-Leste deserves praise for the success with which it has implemented pragmatic policies designed to bring rapid stability following the 2006 crisis. Promoting confidence at home and abroad is important for transforming any post-conflict economy. But it likely has a very limited window of opportunity during which to make investments – both political and financial – that might mitigate the still real risks of an eventual return to conflict.

We have also had a couple of short responses from our readers:

Neil James notes in response to this piece on basing at the Cocos (Keeling) Islands, that as well as there being limited space, limitations in the supply of fresh water and the lack of a deep-water harbour to accommodate larger ships will also preclude the establishment of large or permanent bases.

And in response to Peter Jennings thoughts on pay parking for the ADF (and others in the Parliamentary Triangle), a bemused member of the ADF notes that: we should “Spare a thought for some in JOC that drive 140km round trips to Bungendore each day… Did you know DFAT are offering a fuel allowance to their people to actually get someone to volunteer to work out there?”

And last but not least, we also suggest you check out our jobs page. There are three positions going at the moment; a cyber security analyst, events and publications assistant, and an administration officer.

Image courtesy of Flickr user U.S. Pacific Fleet.